A Tragedy Of Bad Actors

When I woke up this morning my plan was to write the most visceral and probably rude article about Trump’s recent actions. I may still be rude because I believe he has demonstrated a complete lack of decency and, indeed, could be regarded as responsible for a good proportion of the Ukrainian people who died, were injured and lost homes and property as a result of Russian strikes over the last few days. A combination of limited intelligence and interference with crucial military internet software, which he will be found to have authorised, meant that Ukraine’s defences were less effective and they were forced to put some attack plans on hold too.

I am still frustrated and angry as the world appears to have no control whatsoever against Trump. Despite some voices being raised in objection to his change of mind to purchase Russian oil and his action in going against previously agreed sanctions and, in particular, breaking promises regarding provision of technical and intelligence support for Ukraine in a way that can only actually hurt innocent people and dismay anyone who believes in fairness or decency, these voices seem quiet or little reported. There has been shock, dismay, sadness but I see little anger or complaint. And where are the demonstrators? So noisy, violent and rude when complaining about Israel. So quiet and seemingly accepting all the bad things happening in Ukraine.

Without in any way condoning Trump’s actions I do begin to see how he must be viewing the future. Putting aside the ridiculous claims to being able to end the war in 24 hours or whatever, he does believe that only a deal will bring about peace. He cares not about who may live in some part or another of Ukraine and probably thinks that they wouldn’t be too bothered being a part of Russia as opposed to Ukraine if all were peaceful and both countries were being run in a modern and efficient way that produced a sound economy and reasonable standard of living.

Trump, and a group of advisors around him, have a view of a future where Ukraine and Russia are successful economies with which the USA can trade. I doubt they are particularly bothered as to who lives where. Here follows what journalist Owen Matthews describes in the Telegraph as the plan Trump’s people have been proposing:

A “four-pillar” plan was discussed by Trump envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff with top Ukrainian representatives and reported by the Washington Post.

Key to the peace deal is the idea that Putin would not just end his war but also sign up to a new economic and security architecture for Russia, Ukraine and Europe that would restore stability to the region and prevent future conflict from flaring up again.

The first pillar of the deal would be finding ways to finance Ukraine’s reconstruction, from rebuilding the devastated areas of the country to providing benefits for families of dead and wounded soldiers and restoring the shattered economy.

The second component would be to provide security guarantees for Ukraine in the form of a pledge from the US and European nations that they would respond militarily if Russia attacked again – but, crucially, would not include NATO membership.

The third pillar would be the economic reintegration of Russia, Ukraine and Europe through an energy deal that would include reopening pipelines carrying Russian oil and gas to Europe, with Ukraine and Russia splitting the profits.

The last and most tricky part of the deal focuses on how exactly to partition Ukraine and on the status of the Russian-occupied territories. According to the Washington Post, the Miami deal envisions partition along the current line of control, with some mutual territorial swaps to rationalize the new border.

Apart from this last element, I don’t think anyone can disagree with such a plan, with strong guarantees that not only will Ukraine get rebuilt but any future invasion would be properly defended, albeit not by NATO.

Yet how can you tell someone that they must now live under the control of a government which has, to all intents and purposes, been trying to kill them for the last 4½ years? Whilst many people will have fled when Russian troops took control of areas of Ukraine, many more will remain and suffered under officials who try to take their land and property and force their children to learn a different version of history if, indeed, they are not taken away to some distant village. Worse, men who remained will have been obliged to fight against Ukrainian troops. So while I accept that there will always be a number of people who prefer to be Russian and welcomed the change and will be content with such a deal, there will be a vast number to whom this must be quite wrong.

Ukraine’s government will have great difficulty in passing any legislation which effectively gives away land or people. Indeed, I don’t see this happening at all. The only acceptable outcome would be one where areas which have become under Russian control become areas managed by some independent authority for a period during which fair elections can be run to determine the wishes of the residents of those areas. Where a genuine majority wish to live as part of Russia then so be it. Perhaps some assistance could be provided to those who then wish to leave as part of the rebuilding framework.

I would, of course, include Crimea in this arrangement. That is where everything went wrong in the first place, with so little actual action taken in 2014 by the world at large.

If it were possible to get Russia to agree to leave control of the areas it claims to have taken to some independent body, on which I guess they could be represented, then I see a route to peace for the long term.

This aspect, however, seems to be missing in the plan. Trump sees only the plan and what appears a good result. That may well be why he just wants that to happen and cannot understand why anyone should do anything to prevent it starting. He might have chosen to back Ukraine big-time but he will have recognised that Putin cannot be seen to lose. Losing, for Putin, is not an option. He would, despite his current power and influence, also lose key support in the Kremlin and be despatched, probably in a box or, if alive, quietly to some distant residence. So he chose to back Putin and expects Ukraine simply to buckle under the pressure they will soon find themselves under, from both the weather and increasingly lethal bombardment.

It almost certainly does not occur to Trump that the Ukrainian people will not give in. They will endure whatever is thrown at them. Their numbers may dwindle as many more will have to escape the turmoil and damaged towns and we may see a much larger area of the country come under Russian control in years to come but they will always resist and one day, when neither Trump nor Putin are around to decide policy, new and hopefully more decent people with more realistic minds will make that final part of the plan workable.

So, yes, I am appalled at Trump and can only express my sheer disappointment at leaders across the free world and how they have really done little more than talked, wrung their hands, said how much they ‘stand by Ukraine’ and said very little indeed for fear of whatever action Trump might take if they show disagreement. President Zelensky called Trump weak. I am not so sure about that. It is just about every other leader who should be supporting Ukraine who is being weak. Trump is just mistaken, has bet on the wrong horse but cannot now change.

The world will remain a chaotic and quite sad place until both Trump and Putin have left the stage.