A Big Distraction

There really is a great deal going in the world these days. And I don't mean the sort of deal that Trump talks about - they seldom seem to come to much from what I can see anyway. I simply mean that there is a lot of news of rather a lot of importance.

I have written before with some frustration about how people in Russia don't get to see or hear what is happening just a few hundred kilometres away across their border with Ukraine. Well, now I think it must be difficult for anyone in Russia to ignore what is happening in their own towns. 

 At least 78 regions have introduced rationing or limits on fuel sales, with some stations in heavily affected areas entirely suspending fuel sales to private customers. Crimea has been hit particularly hard, forcing local occupation authorities to declare a state of emergency, ban fuel sales to private individuals, and limit fuel access. This has been the direct result of Ukraine drone attacks on a range of targets associated with fuel refinery and distribution. There have been attacks across a vast area of the huge land mass that is Russia and these seem to have been very effective indeed. As well as long queues at petrol stations where fuel may be available, there have been many private videos posted of the large clouds of black smoke rising to the sky and, in some places, descriptions of the 'black rain' descending afterwards as the oil contained in the clouds returns to Earth. Whilst not everyone may have seen the explosions, I am sure almost everyone will know about the shortage of fuel and the impact that this has started to have on product deliveries to stores.

There is even an app that is proving popular, ostensibly indicating to motorists where there should be fuel available. However, a number of other 'users' have joined and used the reporting facility to advise others that there is fuel at stations where there is none! So the reliability of the data is decidedly questionable and it has been causing no small amount of confusion and anger amongst those trying to find fuel. As well as films of 3 kilometre queues in some places there are now videos of men fighting each other and a great deal of hoarding also seems to be going on by those fortunate enough to find supplies.

Crimea has been particularly affected and the longest queue there has actually been of cars carrying people desperate to get away from the region. Of course, many have not made it very far as their fuel runs out just idling. Some push their cars in an attempt to stay in line but it is highly probable that they will find no more fuel available even if they do get away.

The Kremlin-controlled media admits to there being a problem, and blames Ukraine 'terrorist' action but, four years and nearly 150 days after a 'special military operation' I suspect that even the dimmest of Russians will be wondering how it has come to this? The fact is that it must be dawning on the population in those areas most affected, if not at large, that their government isn't doing terribly well at running their country and appears to be having trouble resisting attacks now from the country they assumed would be brought back under the communist banner within a short period. 

It is interesting to note that in retaliation, Russia lunched a massive attack on Kyiv on Wednesday night. Their missiles and drones demolished no factories or power stations, no weapons facilities or military sites. Just several multi-storey apartment blocks, a nursery and parts of two hospitals as well as a few hundred individual homes and shops. And a passenger train carriage. The death toll is around 30 as I write but there will be many more as rubble is carefully removed from the heaps into which blocks fell. Thousands will have suffered injuries and most will be the elderly and infirm unable to reach the safety of a basement in time. Ukraine's targets were precise and, according to independent sources, no personnel were killed, although there may be casualties from subsequent explosions.

The difference is that whoever fired the Russian missiles deliberately aimed them at domestic buildings, places where there would be civilians, not military personnel or some weapons factory. Their tactic of firing a second missile at the same place a little later in order to kill those responding to the first and attempting to rescue people will, I am sure, be a major factor in the prosecution of many Russian military personnel for war crimes in time to come.

I am not going to claim that Ukraine targets were totally clear of civilians but if there had been a significant number then we would certainly have heard about it and the important point is that Ukraine is trying to kill Russia's economy not its people.

What will Russian people do with this new knowledge? I fear they will not be able to do much at all, as any dissent is likely to be reported by someone and that never ends well for the person concerned. At some point, though, there will be much more dissent and that may be more difficult to quell. I am thinking about the impact of what is likely to be mobilisation by Russia in coming months, with all men and, who knows, women too, being required to serve and go to war or, as they will probably be informed, 'assist with the completion of the special military operation'. I doubt that anyone will tell the people being handed their new uniforms and boots that the life expectancy of a Russian trooper on the front line during an assault is 20-35 minutes. Or that around 1300 Russian soldiers are killed every day. The enhanced wages that they are given to go to the front will be taken by the many very corrupt local commanders in exchange for a promise that they can stay behind. Sometimes they are even fleeced of all their wages in some deal with a senior officer to keep them back but they still get sent or shot if they complain. Reports from the many prisoners who have been prepared to speak to reporters visiting jails in Ukraine make terrifying reading and the behaviour of so many middle-ranking commanders or officers is extraordinary and not just highly unprofessional but downright criminal.

One hardly need ask why there has been no advance in any area of Ukraine in the last year. And yet still Russians troops and Ukraine children die (or disappear from the occupied territories).

And the world looks on, wrings its hands, says how much they support a peaceful solution, an end to fighting or words of similar practically meaningless expression. 

One wonders whether it may actually be Russian people who finally end this? Could there be such a horror at men and women being forced to fight, replacing the 1300 a day being lost and becoming some of those 1300 themselves sooner or later, could that fear outbid in their minds the fear of being carted off by police for resisting mobilisation? Might many make a run for it? Interestingly, many border crossing points are being closed around Russia and not just those with Finland or places like that but with other previous Soviet States. This has to be an indication that some new mobilisation, requiring people to join the battle, is on the cards.

To date losses appear to have been of troops garnered to a great extent from regions far away from Moscow and St Petersburg society, from villages to the east and prisons, of course, and those with debts where the offer to repay whatever they owe was attractive at first. Then there have been the many North Korean and a few thousand from Africa recruited who probably had no idea what they were letting themselves in for. These losses, whilst extraordinary in their vastness - I repeat, 1300 every day! - do seem not to have registered in any meaningful way with the general public there. They must be evident to many who have access to news from abroad and some journalists but I can imagine that it is so bad that they know the trouble they would be in for even whispering those numbers.

One has to ask, though, whether the mothers of intelligent and economically useful sons from Moscow, St Petersburg, Rostov-on-Don, and many other modern centres where new recruits will have to be drawn from, taking young men away from their jobs in banks and commerce, offices and schools, will be as complacent as those who have lost a million, and counting, from other more rural or distant parts of Russian society? It seems to have been easy to ignore whatever unease may have been expressed in the distant regions. I suspect the new recruits' parents to be more vocal and better organised in their questions to authority.

With that in mind I have a feeling that the Kremlin will take some action to divert attention and perhaps help to justify the mobilisation planned. This could be an incursion of troops or a weapon landing in a NATO country - officially expressed by the Kremlin as an 'error', perhaps, or 'unauthorised movement' by some commander, or variations on such a theme - but serious enough to make the West feel they have to respond somehow. The Kremlin are basically, therefore, proposing to test just how organised, how determined, we are to defend an ally. Our likely response will, I fear, be to talk a lot and have several meetings but, in the end, let whoever or whatever crossed a border go back and hope out loud that it doesn't happen again, no doubt with an 'or else' added for good measure without any definition of what that 'else' might be.

There is a chance, though, that there is a more aggressive stance taken and a skirmish takes places and the Russian troops and machinery are captured and prevented from leaving. This may seem to be verging on an escalation of the Ukraine conflict into something more global as NATO v Russia but I suspect, again, that it will not proceed far and all will go quiet with troops and machinery begrudgingly returned.

More likely could be an attack on some military infrastructure in the West, or damage to internet connectivity or power supplies that cannot specifically be proven to have been under the orders of the Kremlin. Russia may claim it was a rogue element or, of course, the classic 'Ukrainian supporters trying to make it appear that Russia was responsible'. This sort of event is so difficult to deal with because it is so difficult to know who really was responsible and, therefore, how to respond. A response is needed, though, and that's what the Kremlin need to see so they can continue to plan the game and, like the best chess players, look ahead many stages.

We are in for some troubling times. Whilst Ukraine's exceptional success in what they describe as 'long range sanctions' against Russia deserves praise and it has certainly lifted the morale of the public and their troops, as well as tending to show that those countries backing Ukraine are backing a winner, Putin still makes all the decisions and, in his view, all Russia has to do is carry on bombing and destroying Ukraine and eventually there will be nothing left for even a successful army to fight for.

So those new recruits will be needed. I do worry that Belarus is somehow badgered into making an attack from the north and that Ukraine will find that their limited forces are terribly split. They may well decide that they have to give Belarus the same treatment as they've been giving Russia in order to attempt to discourage further development along those lines. That would almost certainly bring the Belarus public out on the streets as they are by no means supportive of Lukashenko and I wonder to what extent the Belarussian police will really wish to quell disturbance and discontent.

Indeed, it is the police in Russia too that I would, if I were working in any resistance movement, wish to infiltrate and try to turn. If one could diminish the threat that they pose to members of the public and we see a few people starting to get away with speaking out then more dissent would be encouraged for sure. That, in turn, could be a very good way to end this war, as there would be far too many problems then with society within its borders for the Kremlin to ignore and attention would have to be given to some solution that does not turn one Russian against another Russian.

That could, again, be where the Big Distraction comes in to play and Lithuania finds its border fences broken and a few hundred Russian troops marching across fields while drones take out local defences.

All in all, a few totally unpredictable months lie ahead. I predict a riot.

A Sorry State

 I had just started to admire Kemi Badenoch and the efforts she has made to make the Conservative Party more like the party I have voted for since 1969 when I first joined as a Young Conservative. I first typed 'supported' instead of 'voted for' in the previous sentence then realised that I really did not support them very much during the COVID restriction days nor, especially, in the Woke Years which, in some ways, are still continuing but at least announcements by Kemi have led me to believe that she wishes to undo as much of what went wrong as best she can. I guess I didn't support anyone. Reform sounded as though they were saying what I wanted to hear but I am afraid that I have not been very impressed with Reform of late and one has to ignore Restore, however much they may seem to echo some views I hold. So I had been pleased with the Conservatives efforts - until now.

It seems that they are claiming a lot of credit for the introduction by Labour of restrictions on young people's access to a range of social media. The proposals look dreadful to me and it is particularly annoying and frustrating to see the Conservatives not only backing most of them but also, as I said, claiming that they wouldn't have been introduced if they had not pushed Labour to do so more quickly.

Now one may have doubts about the influence of the Conservative Opposition in Parliament these days and I suspect their support or pressure has made no difference whatsoever. Sir Keir Starmer wishes to be seen doing something which he has been told a good majority of parents want, and to have something to his name after all the bad publicity and general failure of his government that he's had to put up with. The fact remains that the Conservatives are tying themselves to this new policy and my criticism of the government has to apply similarly to the party I was hoping I could continue to support.

This new regulation will just happen - as it appears that the government can introduce the restrictions without having to have a new law passed or even debated in parliament by virtue of very loose drafting of the Online Safety Bill. It is just like all the woke stuff got enabled as legal restrictions largely through interpretation of paragraphs in the various diversity, equality and similar legislation. 

It all says to me that we do not have the degree of brainpower or even common sense that used to be available in Parliament. The chance for a second Chamber to examine and question dubious drafts has also been dramatically diminished by the removal of umpteen peers over the years too. The recent removal of hereditary peers brought about the loss of some good brains and people with no particular axe to grind but who could see where a set of laws being proposed may be flawed or misinterpreted - or, at the very least, ask questions about the intent and impact.

MPs themselves, certainly amongst the new Labour intake, seem generally very dim and poorly educated. There may be a degree or two but that means nothing these days, I'm afraid. I write as someone who failed all but one of his class of Luton University students on the grounds of having received little or no evidence that they had any clue as to what they were talking about and who failed to produce any evidence that their submissions, such as they were, even vaguely met the published criteria for even a basic pass, and yet had to watch the person who completed the documentation put every single student down as 'passed' for several units. His explanation was that the statistics would look very bad for our College where we delivered some units as we had only a few courses at degree level and the numbers of failures would compromise our relationship with the university and may even result in no new courses coming our way with the consequent loss of fees, if not reputation. That is all, however, another story. Suffice it to say that I am not impressed in the slightest these days when I see that anyone has a degree. I actually think decent grades at A level are more difficult to achieve.

So, our government at the moment comprises a great number of erstwhile trade union representatives and hopeful idiots, all, of course, supporting the increasing move to socialism across Britain without really understanding what they're doing. The few passionate and genuine socialists do know exactly what they are doing, as do the increasing number of MPs elected by non-Christian communities which, again, is another story.

To return to what I had intended to write about, we now have a government that is committed to stop any child under 17 accessing a range of social media and it gets even crazier as they also propose that there will be a kind of curfew or restriction on the time that those aged under 18 can access sites and media. This is the same government that wants to allow children aged 16 and 17 to vote but does not believe they can manage their own access to social media.

Yes, there may well be a number of children who have been badly affected by what they read or view on a whole load of websites but that is far beyond just social media. There will be, though, a hugely greater proportion of people in that age group who have the sense not to spend time on sites where the bad stuff is published, who can control where they go and how they use their access to sites generally, how they interact with others where that is a feature and, of course, their parents are the people who should have control over what they do, not government.

These are dark days when we allow a government, of very mixed reputation and ability and knowledge themselves, control the freedom of 16 and 17 year olds and, for that matter, I think it is wrong for a government to control what many people at 14 or 15 see or read. This is all a matter for parents. If they do not like what they see their children accessing then they should step in and make such restrictions as suit the circumstances. And one family will not be the same as another family in this respect. A global ban which impacts what a vulnerable child of limited intelligence can access in the same way as for an intelligent and aware child. Parents will know better than a government what is best for their children. If parents simply hold their hands in the air and say they cannot control what their children do and wish to delegate responsibility for the care of their children to the government then we have reached a sorry state and that makes Britain a sorry State indeed.

Government should get out of our lives, not become ever more involved in controlling us. Ministers really do not know what is best. Ministers, at best, will make decisions which correlate best with their ideal version of a state and, in the current government, that is a socialist one. 

This is all very very bad news as I do not see how it can be reversed if the Conservatives also support the regulations, albeit not the socialist aim.

The social media referred to includes Facebook and YouTube! I am not a great fan of Facebook but it strikes me as a popular place where families and friends share pictures and stories of what they're doing. In the main this seems to be what they're eating or trying to impress as many friends as they can with their appearance or latest acquisition or location. I find it pretty tedious nowadays. It seemed an improvement on Friends Reunited in the early 2000s as I recall and, by virtue of the sheer volume of information that was being collected every day across the planet by its huge number of participants, I remember how we were encouraged to promote Facebook as a learning tool in classrooms. The search facility would produce often quite interesting results about a place, for instance, that a normal Ask Jeeves or Yahoo enquiry might miss.

YouTube has become the default place many people go for news these days and newscasts like Ukraine:The Latest or Jacob Rees-Mogg's summaries of the day and several other videos are all that I may see in some evenings. OK, I don't expect young children to enjoy these particular items but this is where many will get their music and even films nowadays. It is also one of the few places where many of us can upload a movie that we have made to share with others or feature on a website. YouTube makes this sort of thing easy. Children at 14 or 15 love making videos and YouTube is a place they can share them. There are others like TikTok that I don't like but I would not ban children from seeing the vast majority of its content. yes, there will be a lot of bad stuff but then anyone scrolling through the channels available on a modern TV will find stuff just as bad and there will be websites galore which friends will tell them about where there will be no restrictions to stop them viewing stuff anyway. What the government prevent them seeing on a few social media sites will very quickly be available somewhere else and we'll be driving many children to worse, much more dodgy places and to do so without telling anyone. 

Parents need to wake up to what their children are looking at. It is parents who need to do all the work in controlling and explaining why they may place blocks on some places. Children used to look at naughty magazines and read pages from books that might be full of activities, explained in detail even parents might be embarrassed to read. Now they look at pictures and videos online. I suspect that the newer stuff is more shocking and debauched but I am afraid we have to accept that they'll see stuff we'd prefer they didn't. Banning them from a few social media accounts will not make any difference. 

Chrome has 'incognito' windows where your location may be hidden and allows adults to pop into sites they would prefer their partners weren't aware of. The facility to disguise who and where you are is vital to anyone in Russia who wishes to read about what is happening in the real world. Not that they still can get very far into that real world but, at least, the virtual private network, as the software is termed, keeps them a little safer from the gaze of their socialist masters. It will become all the more used here and parents may be none the wiser. at least, as things stand, they have some chance of checking where their children have been online but soon this history will be removed by more and more children as they learn how to.

Overall, there is nothing that I can find that is at all good about the new regulations. A dreadful move by a dreadful government and supported by a party I was thinking I might like to vote for again. Now I have no clue what to do at the next election. I will do my best to urge the Conservatives to water down as much of these regulations as possible but fear they will want to retain the social media bans for under 16s. The curfew for 16 and 17 year olds must go, though. I'll accept, I suppose, a commitment to look again at controls should they ever be in a position to change anything and all I can hope is that children make such fools of the government that the ban in its present form is proven impractical if not nonsensical.

What a farce. How little influence do many parents seem to possess these days.

Watching TV and doing nothing.

 I used to watch TV series, sometimes several a week. Although I could record them to watch later, most weeks I would want to watch 'live', to be one of the first to see how a story was developing or, in the case of X Factor or American Idol, to get my reviews and predictions published as early as possible so that I could not be accused of copying what someone else had said. When Lost was in full flight it was, for me, simply an hour that I had to see. That was easy for the first series, maybe a few more, which were broadcast on a channel in the UK called Sky One. You didn't need a satellite dish or a subscription to Sky in order to watch Sky One; it was one of the channels that appeared in a nice long list which you got with something called Freeview on most TVs in the 2000s. Later, however, around 2006 or 7 as I recall, it changed and I was unable to watch Lost on any of my available channels. I needed this fix quite badly, though, being very much addicted to the series and I would write regularly about it and read avidly the reviews each week and the many long and carefully argued dissemination of what may or may not be happening as people like me tried to get into the minds of the writers and make sense of the many twists and turns and small hints and possible Easter eggs each edition presented. To satiate my desperate need I managed to find some recordings that had been uploaded by fans and, through something called P2P software, I was able to watch these. Sometimes the video was a small rectangle surrounded by advertisements in what I presume were Chinese but, over the years, these improved and, although I cannot now remember how, for the last series or two I was able to watch pretty much as I had started on some Freeview channel or watch a recording of an American broadcast a few hours after it had finished. TV tended to rule my evenings, with something entertaining or intellectually challenging appearing live, or as a recording of something only recently aired, available every day.

Now I can watch almost anything I want, whenever I want. But none of it is live. Except Eurovision, I suppose, or the occasional sports event where the play is not worth watching if you have already seen the result. And what do I now watch? News. Some nights that is actually all I watch. Ukraine: The Latest is my first go-to programme in the week, often followed by Jacob Rees-Mogg's remarkably good summaries of some point of interest or debate in the news at the time and then YouTube will offer me the very watchable Madeleine Grant on Quite Right! and a couple of Telegraph journalists dissecting the news of the political day. I would never have imagined, a few years ago, that I would watch YouTube every evening.

With Netflix, Amazon Prime and, of course BBC iPlayer, there is a further abundance of films and series old and new that I could watch but I seldom seem to get round to more than Clarkson's Farm these days. That is mainly due to the news itself being so interesting.

Here in the UK I can only watch the country slide deeper and deeper into debt and, whilst attempting to put a brave face to the outside world, looking increasingly pathetic to anyone who looks closely. I don't think there is anything that the present government has done with which I can agree. So much of the new regulations seem pointless or just a way to tax some people more and make life more difficult for business. So it can be a bit depressing watching the UK news - maybe frustrating is a better word as I tend not to get depressed - but it does make me consider how it might develop. We have Reform who, until recently were surging in the polls and who have, indeed, taken over a lot of local government. It is too early to tell but I am not sure we will see the sort of big changes that they promised. The new councillors will no doubt be discovering that, much as they would like to change this or that, past commitments bind them and 99% of the funds available to them are already committed to one project or another.

I have mentioned before the Makerfield by-Election where Andy Burnham now looks a certain winner. Reform may see quite a drop in support and It will be fascinating to see how that wanes across the next few years. Conservatives may well benefit from that but I can't see them being sufficiently forgiven or attractive as an option for old Labour voters and we will have the most God-awful mess of a result in 2029 or whenever. Watching the demise of Labour, the insecurity of Reform, the preposterousness of the Greens and the serious efforts of the Conservatives to maintain some relevance is quite entertaining at times.

Abroad is almost exciting when I look at Ukraine. Whilst the horrors of civilians very young and very old being killed by Russian strikes every day are dreadful, for every few Ukraine innocents lost it seems that 1000 or more Russian troops are lost. This has been going on for some time now and estimates from reliable sources indicate that about 1,300,000 Russian soldiers have been lost in this war. That is an extraordinary number. I can only assume that the Russian people are not aware of this number or consider it some Western propaganda of some sort. They may become more aware soon as Putin may have to resort to compulsory military service for more young people in Russia in order to maintain troop numbers. If he were to announce this then I think there would be a flight from the country by large numbers of young men and women and this could lead to the lid being blown off the can of secrets that have so far been kept fairly well hidden from the majority. Much as I believe Russians going about their normal day will want to support their home nation, and respect their government and leaders, seeing more of the real facts of the last 4 years or more, realising just how badly their troops have acted in their name, how pointless has been the destruction of so many towns and villages, and areas of production when the dam was destroyed, flooding a huge area of Kherson, not to mention the rape and torture of villagers in places like Bucha and the terrible abduction of what could be 20,000 or more children, seeing all this will have an impact. 

That impact may not be immediate. No-one likes to be told that their leaders are evil, or that really bad things have been done in your nation's name, that most of what you have been told in the media, TV and newspapers, has been lies. It can't be easy to realise that you have been fooled for all this time. No-one wants to admit or acknowledge that but, eventually, as conversations start then there will be areal rise in concern amongst the public. Whether that can lead to any actual change in policy at the top is another matter. Much will depend upon how the police control what people talk about and how loudly they can speak. While someone can be arrested and jailed for speaking out against propaganda, never mind actual government policy, normal people will keep quiet in the streets. Behind the scenes I can imagine discussions but it would take very brave people to make any significant noise. That feeling of uncertainty, guilt even, will spread, though, and eat into that determination that, whatever anyone else says, Russia must be right. Even the vague suggestion that Russia may be wrong, though, could be enough to sow the seeds of doubt into the minds of people who might be able to make a change. The police, the security brigades, business leaders, maybe even some government people, might already have some doubts sometimes but will increasingly begin to see that what they have believed all these years is mostly wrong. That has to lead to some change. 

I worry that some reaction may be violent. If you push someone into a corner they may not just subside into a help and plead for forgiveness. They will, as often or not, lash out and, in some kind of all-or-nothing attempt to get out of the situation, cause even more damage to those around them than they had done before.

So these will be difficult times in Russia. Every Ukraine missile that lands on another oil refinery, military weapons factory or similar carefully-chosen target will carry the message that there is, indeed, a war and that Russia is not winning that war. Up until recently, most Russians could live their lives blissfully unaware that they were themselves in any danger and that anything very bad was being done by forces in their name. They may have wondered why the internet dropped out so much, why some products are scarce and why inflation is increasing but I suppose that's not much different to life in some other places from time to time. Now many must have noticed, or they soon will be very much aware, that, although, unlike Russia, Ukraine is not aiming any missiles at civilians, not every missile lands where it was intended and there will be an apartment block that descends to a pile of rubble one day, or a volcano will appear to have erupted in the High Steet of your local town. That will be difficult to ignore and difficult for the talking heads on your TV to explain.

So all the news about what is happening as I write is fascinating. I worry about predicting anything as to where this all leads. Ukraine will not agree to give away any territory. Putin will not admit that he cannot get more. He has really only one option and that is to get more and more violent. I fear, therefore, that we shall see the firing of the nasty missiles that do seem able to get through Ukraine's defences and that some of these may land on blocks, killing hundreds. It will be inexcusable. Other nations will cry foul. But no-one will do anything. Only Ukraine will act and, sooner or later, they will, either by mistake or in understandable lack of restraint, hit a significant part of a significant city in Russia that Putin has to respond to by going nuclear.

What a disaster that day will be as we watch the mushroom cloud over a city somewhere in Ukraine, and read that 250,000 people were killed instantly.

And still, unbelievably, we will do nothing.

Amateur Reform and Sleep-walking into Socialism

 Much as I agree with many of the policies as promoted for the Reform Party, I am concerned at the views and apparent lack of sense by some of the people being put up for election. The latest character, Robert Kenyon, standing in the Makerfield by-election, appears to be rather a bad choice.

Firstly, he may claim that he voted for Brexit but all the evidence of his reaction to the declaration of our referendum result and posts of social media around that time contradicts that claim. Naturally, no-one will ever know where he put his cross on the day but my bet is that he was not a great supporter of the UK leaving. That, in itself, is not such a big deal and I can see many people are a bit disillusioned with how things have been negotiated since but my main concern is just how silly his tweets or comments have been. They seem no better than some bloke of limited intelligence having a rant after a couple of beers in the pub. Indeed, I am not sure I would want the type of person who feels he has to comment in that way to other people's messages or posts. His language and attitude lack any class and, looking at how he has behaved and the other things he seems to have supported or shared with a thumbs-up emoji, which in itself, tells us a lot about his lack of grey matter and ability to communicate in society, tend to make me rather unenthusiastic about having him as a Member of Parliament and getting £75000 or so from out taxes plus a massive pay-off and great pension when he gets kicked out a some point in years to come.

The final straw, and something which now has made me think again about supporting Reform, has been his comments about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He seems to think that Russia were 'within their rights' to invade Crimea in 2014. I see no comment from him criticising Russia since either. Even if we accept that Crimea has had a fraught history and no-one outside Ukraine seemed to put up much resistance to Russia at the time I fail to see any argument that supports invasion.

Reform also seem to be quiet on most matters concerning Russian activities, reflecting largely the extraordinary silence recently from anyone in the States with any degree of influence on the war in Ukraine. One has to wonder where their policies would lead if elected. I fear that, much like Trump, Farage would not wish to spend any money on further support and would just hope that it all goes away in time. Frankly, a Reform government would have an extraordinary amount of work on its plate anyway with no obvious plan as to how they would implement the changes and so foreign policy generally is likely to take a back seat.

I watched the Makerfield candidate on Question Time yesterday evening and had to smile at just how pathetic all the candidates came across. It was like watching a cartoon. 

The Liberal Democrat made almost no impact whatsoever and the only thing I can now recall, apart from his slightly odd appearance and his not really suiting a moustache, was the mention of his husband for no apparent reason other than perhaps to get the vote of a young chap in the audience wearing a remarkably pink and fancy shirt.

The Conservative had an almost permanent smile. An older chap who spoke a lot of sense but seemed quite out of place and was more ignored by the audience, and Fiona Bruce, than even the Liberal bloke. There was not, it seemed, a single Conservative supporter in the audience anyway and I think he and Fiona realised that.

The Green lady smiled even more than the Conservative but hers was one of those smiles that comes either just before or just after they make a sarcastic remark or are convinced that they know best whatever the other person says. She seemed only concerned in getting the Reform bloke to talk about what he had or hadn't said many years ago about what he might like to do to Carol Voderman's bottom. No-one in the audience, or the panel for that matter, questioned the Green Party's policy on not having any border controls, allowing people to use drugs and supporting Hamas or Hezbollah, probably both, as well as maintaining a list of all the jews in Britain. You do have to wonder what has happened to the Green Party. They used to be concerned about whales and the countryside. Now it's Gaza and, er, Gaza.

Andy Burnham was the Labour candidate and, of course, his sole job was to get through the evening without slipping up so that he could win the by-election and take over as Britain's Prime Minister. He managed that reasonably well, although you got the impression that he didn't have any solutions for any of the problems that the government has got itself into and, in the end, is unlikely to make Britain any better place at all. Indeed, by being somewhat more electable at a future General Election than any of the other obvious candidates, Britain could become considerably worse in the longer term if he were able to keep Reform or the Conservatives out of power for a further five years.

To get back to the Reform candidate, I had, at least, expected him to be able to present himself well, with some passion and good old Reform banter and protestations and instant, one-line recipes for fixing things. Instead we saw him floundering and way out of his depth, woefully unprepared and definitely not someone we would want to be running any department in the country. According to the polls before the show, Reform were running Labour a close second and, had someone called the Restore Party not being standing, they might have stood a chance of winning the seat. After the show Labour were 10 points ahead and I fear for the worst.

Unimpressive as Reform looked that night, I see their victory as the only way to avoid a long-term socialist destruction of all that I care for in Britain over the years ahead. I don't like all their policies and the candidate is rubbish but they are the only party with any chance of beating Labour at this time. I would vote Reform in Makerfield and would encourage anyone who does live there to do so.

Let us hope that the next General Election is some time away so that Kemi Badenoch can continue to impress people and regain the trust of so many Conservative voters who turned away from the party in 2024. I believe Reform have now peaked and, as we see more of their rather poor candidates on TV, I predict that their vote share will diminish with that of the Conservatives growing once more. It may well be that we have an even split across the parties as I think the ridiculous Greens will steal votes from Labour and the Lib Dems so we could even be looking at 20-20-20-15-15-5, the 15s being for the Greens and Lib Dems and the 5 for the usual rag-bag of Independents, Monster Raving Loonies and Islamic State supporters etc.

Whatever else one may conclude from that, one thing is certain, much as big change is necessary, it ain't about to happen as no combination of parties would have enough authority to do much more than collect taxes and talk a lot.

The trouble is that unless the Conservatives and Reform can start to work together and demonstrate that they have learned lessons from their previous failure, in the case of the former, and that they have solid and well-researched policies for fixing Britain, in the case of the latter, then the public will remain largely unimpressed by anyone and we will find ourselves sleep-walking into Socialism.

Perception rules

 I have written much in the past about how ridiculous attention to Diversity, Equality and Inclusion matters has developed over the years, with HR departments and leagues of new 'staff development' trainers delivering instructions to organisations across the country, mostly large and influential but also small and vulnerable, to the extent that most of us are scared to say or write anything relating to anything that might be considered a 'protected' minority characteristic. 

I have always blamed this intrusion into common sense left, right and centre on the last Conservative government's lax attitude and simply not spotting what was going on under their noses. I never thought they actively condoned or supported the changes happening but I did believe that they were very wrong in just letting it happen.

Now, thanks to an excellent article by Charles Moore in The Telegraph, I realise that the seeds of the racial element of much of this were sown far earlier, in 1999, when we were governed by Blair's Labour government. I reproduce most of the article here as it sets out so well how things went wrong.

When enormous official reports about terrible wrongs appear, most of those commenting on them do not have time to read them in full. The story breaks and everyone wants a quick reaction. This usually guarantees favourable reporting: much safer to praise than to interrogate.

In 1999, I was busy editing this newspaper, but I decided to take time out to read and analyse the whole of Macpherson. Something about the clamour surrounding it, and the mob intimidation from the public gallery in Lambeth Town Hall of witnesses to the inquiry, had made me suspicious.

Two things struck me about the report. The first was its tone. From the start, it was accusatory and rhetorical, not measured and professional. It assailed the character of police officers who appeared before it, like a prosecution, not an official inquiry. Its interpretation of events seemed settled in advance, whereas a well-conducted inquiry takes evidence on which to form its interpretation. Officers who dissented from the Macpherson view were exhibiting “their own unwitting collective racism”, it said. Hence, his concept of “institutional racism”. 

It seemed to me that the report never proved this. It simply asserted it.

The second point arose from the first. If the police, as the report said, were “unwitting” in their collective racism, it followed that self-selecting enlightened people – such as Sir William Macpherson, then in his 70s and living in a castle in non-diverse Perthshire – should order their re-education.

Thus the subject of racism gained the special privilege of not being defined by the criminal law in the ordinary way. A new, non-legal principle was invented and imposed. “A racist incident,” said Macpherson’s famous conclusions, “is any incident which is perceived to be racist by the victim or any other person.”

So anyone who thought he or she had suffered a racist incident had indeed done so, no further evidence required. And since even declared non-victims could, by “perceiving” a racist incident, make it exist, you needed only one person to perceive a racist incident, and report it, to make it an event which must be officially recorded. What was the criminal law, whose job is to establish guilt or innocence, supposed to make of that?

“If this definition were to be accepted,” I wrote in this space at the time, “the statistics of racist incidents would suddenly shoot up, allowing the police to be attacked even more.” That is exactly what has happened.

Macpherson added something else: “The term ‘racist incident’ must be understood to include crimes and non-crimes. Both must be reported, recorded and investigated with equal commitment” (“24 hours a day”). That, too, is exactly what has happened, the official name for this extra branch of police work being “non-crime hate incidents”.

Finally, Macpherson recommended that his racist incident definition “should be universally adopted by the police, local government and other relevant agencies.” That has also happened. We are governed by Macpherson race theory.

Sir William, I wrote then, “imposes on his victims, the police, a concept of racism which makes them guilty whatever they do… It is contemptible that someone versed in [the English] law should have done such a thing.” By doing so, he would “inflame racial feeling.”

Today, the flames are crackling. They may even succeed in burning down our entire party system.

One of the “nine principles” of our police, deriving from Sir Robert Peel, who founded them, is that “The ability of the police to perform their duties is dependent upon public approval of police actions.” The Macpherson legacy is quite different. It is to make the police – and many other public employees – the agents of a race doctrine they have been told they themselves do not understand.

The same doctrine teaches that, if they are white, they will never understand it. So now poor police officers run around gabbling half-digested jargon about identity and disable the native capacity of their own eyes and ears, even when someone is dying in front of them. How could such a police force ever win public approval? That is why, as Kemi Badenoch recently put it, we are “descending into tribalism”.

It is race, obviously, that makes this discussion so tense. But I think the problem runs wider and deeper. It is an irrationality of which racism itself is the worst but not the only symptom. After Macpherson, the British state decided to allow “perception” to trump the law’s traditional emphasis on provable fact. That irrationality has opened up other ones – such as the assertion that gender is a matter of choice not of biology, or the doctrine, in relation to sexual assaults, that “The victim must always be believed”, which has led to a slew of false, life-ruining accusations of child sexual abuse.

Racism remains a real and present evil, so the unpicking of the Macpherson legacy must be calmly conducted, but unpicked it must be.

It seems worth ending with one further point. In Britain today, by far the most virulent form of racism is anti-Semitism. A serious attempt is being made to drive out Jews, arguably the most well-integrated of all immigrant groups. And where have our post-Macpherson, “anti-racist” police been in all this? Just standing and watching as the Jew-haters march down the street.

Finally, after the publicity surrounding the attack on Henry Nowak, people are realising that the police have been acting as they have been trained to do and it is that training that needs to be changed - and quickly. That will not be easy. Many officers and legal minds have grown up over 25 or more years believing this concept of 'perceiving' a racist incident. It will take a long time to reverse much of teh arguments made before and, no doubt, there will plenty of push-back by those who wanted and made the instructions in the first place. No-one likes to admit they were wrong.

There is a long way to go before British society and legislation returns to the wonderfully simple elements of common sense and freedom of speech and thought that we were once well-known for. Some movement has taken place on trans matters with our Supreme Court declaring that you are either a man or a woman and you cannot change your biological sex. You may be free to dress or act as your please but remain as your were born and will be treated under the law as such. Anyone can choose to be a transvestite or announce that they feel most comfortable at any point they choose along some spectrum of gender from male to female and it is right that we respect their views in day-to-day life. We should not, however, be fired or arrested for asserting that a man is a man and should not be using a woman's toilet or changing room, or for referring to him as her and declining to engage with weird new pronouns like ze or expected to use they in contradiction of the grammar we have learned.

There is a long way to go but, at least, it appears we may have made a start.

 

Who Really Cares?

 A lingering cold does not put me in the best of  moods but I would have been maddened in any event by the recent news hitting our screens and newspapers. I’ll start with the idiot Vance. What on Earth is he doing supporting Orban in the coming election in Hungary? Is there something we don’t know about the opponents? I don’t know much about Péter Magyar who has been expected to defeat the almost embedded Orban. Why should Vance dash off to appear on stages with a potential loser? Or has he been informed that, whatever people may wish in their vote, Orban will continue to wield power and Vance will look like he had crucial influence. I might start referring to him as Ad Vance as he always seems to be seeking publicity to support a campaign for the Presidency in 2028. How dreadful it would be to have a real fool and religious pain with no manners and little understanding of people to take over from the madness of King Trump. 

Recent revelations about communications between senior Hungarian politicians and Putin make it clear to anyone observing things that Hungary most definitely does not wish to oppose Russia in any way. Memories of 1956? After being so brutally repressed 70 years ago one would think that any signs of Russia wishing to control them again would have been firmly rebuffed as soon as they appeared, certainly in 2022 if not, indeed, 2014. Putin clearly has some hold over Orban and several others in government, to such an extent that they will not support any efforts to assist Ukraine to repel an invader who has acted with ghastly acts of murder and more over more than four years. Do they not respect a nation’s borders?

It is strange to listen to Hungarian academics and government officials try to explain their position. They sound almost identical to Trump in their view that, at this time, Ukraine has no chance of regaining any territory, has lost huge areas, amounts of infrastructure never mind people and that it would be better for everyone if they just stopped and came to some agreement with Russia which, in all essence would almost certainly see vast tracts of land to the south and east ceded to Russian control and I suspect there would be further encroachments after that too. Asked what their view was on the first day of the invasion in 2022, however, most respondents cough and splutter as much as I do. But in their case it is in order to avoid having to reply. One would have thought that Hungary would declare itself in support of Ukraine's defence and help them resist Russian advance.

Thereagain, one would have hoped every other nation in the world other than North Korea would have offered to help resist at Day One. Of course, no-one did. Many good words. Fewer good deeds. Planes promised by Norway in 2023 are still not delivered. Funds that the vast majority of EU states have committed to give to Ukraine have not materialised, blocked by a Hungarian veto time and time again.

Hungary, as she stands today, supports Russia and Russia will support Hungary. I do so hope that Orban loses and someone will open the doors on the treachery of Hungarian politicians over these years. They always sound so reasonable in interviews but I have yet to hear any ask out loud why they support Russia.

The same question might have been asked of Trump. I do not include any of the people he occasionally sends to meetings or to make announcements as it seems pretty clear that there is only one view now in America and that’s Trump’s. One has to wonder where any even faint opposition has disappeared to? We hear nothing by way of sensible alternative views from anyone, democrat or republican. 

His dreadful withdrawal of support for Ukraine and many announcements that Putin has basically won and so Ukraine needs to stop fighting now, to which he will attach in capital letters something about saving lives all point to an extraordinary state of affairs where USA and Russia seem more than just friends these days. We all wonder what the hell Putin must hold by way of a Trump card. But there surely has to be something.

We look at how pathetic Russia’s troops have been, and how lacking in success have been their bombardments and military efforts. For ages now, they had been losing over 1200 men every day and making zero advance. Indeed, Ukraine, whilst not successfully regaining territory either, have certainly hit several places in Russia, destroying oil installations and munitions factories or storage. We don’t know exactly what they hit every time but it seems to cause as much trouble as anything Putin attempts. The one thing Ukraine drone operators don’t do deliberately is kill innocent people on buses. Twice this week a First Person Drone, that is one that is directly controlled by a human, has hit public buses, killing occupants. The person deciding to fire will have known exactly what he was doing and I am not aware of any yellow Ukraine tanks with large windows and little old ladies inside with bags of shopping.

On a normal day in a normal world actions like these, repeated daily by Russian troops, would have been enough to enrage the public, students and everyone who cares about fairness, human life and what is ‘right’ sufficiently to have politicians instructing troops from UK, the British Commonwealth, Europe and, who knows, some other ex-Soviet states to go in and dismiss the invaders. Quite frankly the USA should lead the whole thing as they have the might but I reckon we could get by without them. I have said time and time again that Russia is not strong. They do not have a mass of troops ready to fight. All they have are nuclear weapons, as far as I can make out. Surely if they’d had something else that they could use to bring this horrid war to a bloody end then they would have used it or them. Will no-one call their bluff and go in and attack? Whatever Trump and Putin have agreed behind closed doors, any nuclear or chemical weapons would immediately alienate Russia and substantially add to the cohesion of those involved in supporting Ukraine.

Hungary could sit it out, as could any country with some sort of tie or debt to Putin. But the vast majority could end this the way it should be ended, with the complete withdrawal of Russian troops to where they should have been in 2014. Yes, I include Crimea and some eastern regions which have been very much under Russian control for a long time. I accept that, by repopulation and means more foul, the people in those areas have changed considerably over the years and so just bunging them back Ukrainian passports, language restrictions and all that is not a good move. Care will be needed to help everyone in the contested areas live free and peaceful lives and not be put down by some new authority, especially one celebrating victory.

I challenge Trump or whoever is in charge of USA’s policy on Ukrainian matters to say that this is not a fair outcome, restoring the world to how it was before Russia decided they wanted more land and people within their borders. 

Tell me if I am wrong but, the performance of Russian troops has been useless and I cannot see it suddenly getting so much better that, whereas it could not advance against a handful of Ukrainians, they can defeat fresh and well-trained men and women from all over the world in great numbers. It’s only the fear of Putin hitting the big red button that I believe holds everyone back. Knowing that even without the USA’s missiles, much of his cities and countries would be devastated and he most certainly would not go down well in history after that, my bet is that he would take the best deal offered. And maybe try another day.

Here I am in England banging on about how we should take on the Ruskies. It is unfortunate that I don’t get the impression that Britain could do very much. We have reports of oil tankers merrily passing though our own ‘Straits’ and being protected by Russian vessels of some apparent standing. So we didn’t do a great deal about that. Why not? Why could a boarding party not have approached one of the vessels which declared itself to be under some flag of no relevance to Moscow and proceeded to get it, at least anchored down somewhere by the side of the main thoroughfare. Should the Russian navy have interfered then not only would any action have taken some explaining in International law but also to everyone who seems to think that Russia is totally harmless.

I hear that there are stacks of these tankers, ostensibly carrying Russian oil to other nations but doing so under some disguise. They all need to be stopped. Trump says we should go and take the oil in The Straits of Hormuz. I say there’s plenty on our own doorstep.

This whole business is farcical. Iran included. I like the idea of preventing Iran, or more precisely, fanatical Islamists who hate most of us in the West for reasons I have entirely understood but that’s for another day, developing some weapons that could blow up a few towns here. Remembering all the instances where these crazy people have caused real bad things to happen over the years, no-one wants to see anyone who hates us that much with a nuclear weapon. Even a dodgy one. It’s difficult enough having to tiptoe around anything North Korean observers might read now that Kim Jong Un has a big weapon to show off at rallies. One does wonder just how reliable North Korean manufacturing really is but it only takes one to get off the ground to cause trouble.

The question is whether bombing the place (and now having to bomb it again apparently, despite assurance all the facilities had been destroyed) is really going to achieve much. Better by far would have been some programme to feed into the nuclear development programme there some people who could report back and better advise how to stop it or, perhaps more smartly, create some way in which the West might, in future, be able to turn it in on itself. As it stands now, after such huge attacks and devastation by both Israel and USA, there are going to be an awful lot of people who will be seeking revenge.

Just as we went after the 9/11 organisers, Iranians of a certain culture or religion will be determined to strike back. Sometime. They’ll not do anything quickly but, whatever the outcome of the present mess, be sure that there are instructions being issued as you read this to Islamist terrorists in all parts of the world and those instructions will be to destroy whatever it is they detest so vehemently. I honestly don’t understand what their religion is all about if it not just permits but actively insists on jihad here or wherever and that people who are absolutely innocent, in a normal way of thinking, should be killed. It’s actually worse than Russian drone operators killing little old ladies on a bus in Ukraine. They may well be some guys recently let out of prison and this sort of violence is nothing to them. They fire more for practice or to show the hit to friends than a genuine desire to kill. They could be mentally retarded men persuaded to join the army and encouraged by the impressive pay. They are not normal Russians. But I can see that some ‘normal’ Iranians, who believe a particular interpretation of their religion, will follow whatever instruction they’re given to carry out an attack on our society. Bearing in mind just how many people come to this country and claim asylum and, whether successful or not, seem able to effectively set up home here, there has to be a huge threat to us here and now. Every move that Trump has made has made life for us in Britain, maybe parts of Europe too, much more dangerous. You will look over your shoulder in the shopping centre, the new ones always fine targets for maximum publicity. You will wonder about that bag someone left for a moment unattended and move a little further away. You will look at that hired white van and wonder just what it has inside and just how great an explosion could be caused should the driver decide to head for the church entrance. 

What Trump has done is turn millions of people against us all by this ridiculous bombing and destruction of massive parts of the country. Just as we really cannot comprehend why Russia should have wanted to cause so much suffering and damage to Ukraine and Ukrainians, we simply cannot justify the USA doing the same in Iran.

Israel’s position is clear. They want to eradicate organisations and groups of people, comparatively small in numbers, whose whole aim is to destroy Israel and has been for years. By dismembering Hamas and cutting Hezbollah’s resources they should have provided some hope for the Israelis that they can live in peace. That’s quite different to Trump’s aim. Indeed, do we know what his aim is?

At one point he wanted to destroy Iran’s ability to construct a nuclear weapon. One does have to ask why they wouldn’t simply buy a few from North Korea or even Russia. You can bomb all you like, Donald, but that won’t prevent them firing something at you one day if they want to. Especially now, after you have angered so many additional people who might not have been too bothered until they lost their homes and families under the rubble.

We have seen Russia bomb places in Ukraine and Trump says Ukraine should make a deal. It seems to me that he is not at all concerned that massive areas have become pretty much uninhabitable, whole towns demolished, never mind children lost to far away Russian families, unlikely to be seen again and scarred forever by the experience. Now he has authorised the same crazy bombardment, more in fact, in Iran. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed at this time. Nothing of any advantage to anyone other than those who bet on oil and gas prices has happened. Trump looks really quite foolish to me and, like Putin, in many ways, is kinda stuck. I have no idea what either of them can do to get out of this mess.

As I remarked way back at the start of this article, where are the leaders? Where are the people who can encapsulate public feelings and beliefs as to what is right and what is wrong? Where are the people with the guts, and maybe we need a few with the money too, who can tell Trump to step aside and take over some proper action to persuade Putin to take his troops home and our taking a good hard look at how we can minimise the impact of Iranian retribution and revenge.

I see no-one. No-one prepared to stand up and even suggest action.

History will look back at this time and wonder just how we had all become so pathetic and gullible to enable idiots like Trump, Vance and others to run the show. Trump I can vaguely cope with as he is so ridiculous and so invested with the deals and business that he sees nothing of the human side of what has happened. He’s just unrestrained and slightly mad. Vance, on the other hand, professes to have strong ‘Catholic’ belief, wanting more traditional and family-oriented values. How can he even vaguely match those views without very strongly opposing what Russia has done in Ukraine? How can he think that it can be right to permit all Putin’s monstrous acts to be effectively ignored, and, whilst I do know that Christians are all for turning the other cheek, he is allowing himself and his country to be badly stuffed between some other cheeks by a rampant Putin.

Can we please hear from someone of some power and significance who can talk some sense? Trump, Vance & Co have to go. Putin too but that’s more difficult. As for Iran, I’d just exit stage left and work on converting the scientists.

In the meantime, if you look like an angry Iranian then forgive me for keeping a safe distance, if such a thing exists in this world of chemicals and nasty substances and lunatic drivers and suicidal idiots.

The Ideas of March

 It's now mid-March and the world has largely moved on from Epstein, everyone generally coming to the conclusion that the American had some pretty effective ways to attract the rich and famous and entertained them well. They all look pretty foolish but that really is probably going to be all that we remember in years to come. I am pretty sure Trump was very much involved and did all sorts of embarrassing things but seems smart enough not to have written emails about it or get himself snapped in action. I do wonder, though, whether Putin has some good hard evidence of Trump in action so maybe there is a little more of the story to run.

More important at this time, however, are the battles that are developing across the Middle East and continuing in Ukraine. I am not sure I see anything good coming out of either wars. Much as I despise the attitude of governments in Iran and that of Hamas and Hezbollah and IS, which appears to be reconstituted to represent a significant threat once more, the huge destruction wrought on Iran by US and the IDF has never struck me as being particularly likely to achieve any change. Yes, a number of leading people have been killed and huge damage done to military installations but the old government remains in charge and those now running things will be even more determined to do bad things to America and its allies. 

A significant proportion of the population may well pray for a change, wish the downfall of their dreadful rulers and hope for a better life when they can act and speak freely but bombing the hell out of Tehran, some towns and military installations is not going to help them. Indeed, anyone showing even the smallest signs of support for some alternative government is more likely than ever to be hauled away and shot or lost forever in a cell somewhere. That proportion is still just a proportion and there seems to be a good number of the population who either support the ayatollahs or just go along with what they say for an easy life. Basically whilst the police and army have guns and a presence on the streets then they'll continue to ensure some religious zealot ayatollah remains in charge.

Iran is going to lose a lot of buildings, weapons, planes and ships but it can continue to fire missiles and drones from time to time and cause a lot of trouble for neighbours who might have to to decide that enough is enough and leave Israel and the USA to it. Iran as a nation run by demented ayatollahs who hate Christians and almost anything Britain or the USA do or stand for is unlikely to change anytime soon. I rather suspect that those who survive will be all the more determined to teach us a lesson now. And that is where trouble really starts. For lurking in towns and cities all over Europe and here in Britain are immigrants who, if not themselves from Iran, are sympathetic to the cause of Iran, whatever that is. Destruction of the West, I suppose. Many are probably not bright enough to understand what it is they're for, never mind against, but the clever brain-washing techniques of whoever manages these people, controls their lives and beliefs has been sufficient. They can all be controlled and if someone somewhere calls for them to do something then they'll jump to action and do as they're told, no doubt including wearing some ghastly suicide vest or driving a van at a queue of white kids at a bus stop in Birmingham or similar despicable acts. These terrorists will be the new weapons of war and no amount of bombs on Tehran will make any difference. And they live just a few miles from you, wherever you are.

Now that's scary.

There's a lot of talk about oil prices and, of course, I'll be paying a lot more for petrol next week. There's this narrow stretch of water along which it seems a massive amount of goods and, of course oil and gas, travel and Iran appears able to control who gets to pass at the moment. Because it seems that a ship can be stopped by quite a modest missile of some sort hitting it in the right place and these can be fired from all sorts of places along the strait, keeping ships moving looks extremely difficult and I have to wonder how long it will be before we hear of one of the West's ships being hit as it tries to defend others. That would be a huge shot in the arm for whoever's still running things in Iran and could make America look pretty weak, especially if oil prices are still high and they're unable to control much on Kharge Island.

I do quite like the idea of that - controlling the massive supply of oil by effectively running the whole shooting match at the island. But there are many hostile people around who could well decide to blow up the whole thing and cause chaos in the global economy rather than let the USA run it. So I am not convinced they'll get very far on that track either. All in all, I am not sure I see a way for Trump to get out of any of this and still look good. He will not like that at all.

All that he can say is that it will take a while for Iran to rebuild their nuclear facilities and army. Big deal.

Then there's the other war. Russia do seem to be pretty much stuck where they are. Ukraine do not have the resources to push them back as that requires troops they can't send. But they can defend territory quite effectively now with drones and remote facilities in what has been a quite remarkable series of developments in a short space of time, under pressure too. Ukraine towns are still being hit every night and most days by some missiles and drones and civilians are getting killed or injured just going about their normal lives at a shop or travelling in a bus. Russian sites are also being hit by Ukraine's drones and several important technology facilities appear to have been damaged as have some military and oil depots. 

It strikes me as a bit strange that Russia has not done anything more dramatic or made what anyone would describe as a serious effort to take more territory or cause more huge devastation. One has to wonder whether they really do have the resources? I am, naturally, relieved that they haven't made any major move for a long time and that Ukraine has largely managed to keep going through the winter and preserved such troops as it has. Could Russia be running out of men? They are losing massive numbers every day, more than they are recruiting, so they will soon need to consider conscription - and that's when the government won't be that popular, however the demand to enrol is presented. I guess there'll not be much demonstration, and cutting off people's access to websites and communication via social media that's not monitored by them, will suffocate any sound of dissent anyway.

This does strike me as a good time for nations to help Ukraine make their move - with our troops and weapons from as many nations as can be persuaded to support as possible then it could become blatantly obvious to Putin that not only has he been prevented from further invasion by Ukraine alone and that now there is a real chance that his troops will be forced back. This must be the time when we make a move. I expect nothing from America now and suspect they'll be very occupied in the Middle East. UK needn't be, we could concentrate on Ukraine and actually help, as could most other European nations, showing Putin that he's not going to get anywhere and calling his bluff regarding nuclear weapon threats.

Other nations who might have supported Russia are likely to be too busy elsewhere at this time and, in any event, Russia has not exactly helped them much in their hour of need. Only North Korea looks a bit scary and might offer some support, not that their last efforts were notably successful.

This could be the month that Iran and Islamic State win and America is beaten or, at the very least, required to take an alternative route that they can describe as 'success' but we'll all know is "failure" other than causing a lot of destruction. It could be the month when Putin sees Islamic State as more of a threat to his future aspirations than Ukraine and someone manages to persuade him to switch his attention to that. I fear that his desperate belief in recreating the Soviet Union and destroying Ukraine as an independent state will remain but there's a chance for him to get out while he can and no doubt America could assist with some cheap oil or some contracts for this and that.

Unfortunately, we'll all look back in April and wonder just what the hell we were all thinking in March. And the 20,000 children taken to various parts of Russia from Ukraine are no nearer any chance of seeing their families again. Indeed, as time passes, not only will most of the children start to believe whatever their Russian masters tell them and forget about mothers (who the Russians tell them were unable to afford to look after them or other awful tales) but also the adults left in the towns and villages that have been under Russian control for 4 years will find it difficult if Ukraine does manage to regain control. There will be many who went along with the invaders who will not be popular with their rescuers. The longer time passes, the more people who actually wish to remain Ukrainian will decide to leave these areas and that, in turn, will leave those who actually support Russia as the majority and then what can you do? In so many ways, the longer Putin manages to prolong this war, the more likely he is to be sure of gaining at least those parts his forces now administer.

I guess there is not much anyone will be able to do about that, even if a peace deal were struck today. I do worry about the children, though. For so many, their young minds are so readily influenced and the people teaching them so controlled. I expect even the textbooks refer to Ukraine as part of Russia now and Britain as some terrible place where it is always foggy and men wear bowler hats and everyone is very miserable. Some English men are also very stupid and write long articles saying how bad President Putin is.

God help them, and us. But preferably not the Islam one.