Time line thoughts

 I came across a time-line document I had made some years ago and thought I should take the opportunity to bring it up to date. My book Somewhere In Switzerland ended in March 1985 and it is also probably about time I wrote the second part, for which that time-line would be useful.

It is remarkable how much has happened in the last few years and yet how easily I have been able to forget which years things started in. COVID, for example, and the russian invasion. Surely I would remember when they started? I suppose I would have eventually figured it out but I have had to look at my posts here to be sure!

Yes, of course, COVID-19 hit us in early 2020, my first post in March 2020 being about how the postman would throw my parcels at me and scamper away whereas he would have stood on the doorstep chatting for ages a week or so before.

russia invaded Ukraine in January 2022. I used to write every few months, deploring the lack of assistance being provided or, where it was promised, the lack of delivery and generally how useless we have all been.

COVID-19 appears to have gone, although there is talk of yet another strain of the virus doing the rounds in a big way at the moment. I know quite a lot of people have had colds recently. But they are just that. Colds. No-one is really talking about COVID anything like as much - but still, interestingly, using the same old testing devices and donning masks as soon as they test positive. I really don't believe that there is much to fear now. We've survived and a lot of people now seem to appreciate just how wrong lockdown and all the closures and the compulsory mask-wearing and so on really were. I cannot blame the government of the day. They were caught very much with their pants down, some almost quite literally, and there had been no realistic plan in place for such a thing. People made things up as they went along and very sensible-sounding scientists came to very sensible-sounding conclusions at the time which we only now realise were mostly bonkers. But never mind. It was a crazy time and caused a lot of trouble and inconvenience but we survived. Those who didn't may well not have had that many years left on this planet anyway.

The russians, however, have not gone. After a period when Ukraine seemed to be gaining the upper hand we are back at a stage where russian troops are advancing in some areas but being held back in others. An estimate by a BBC UK and an independent russian source study suggests that russia is losing over 1000 people every month and 70,000 people have been killed or injured in the last six months alone. Yet still they come, with vast numbers of men being sent from all over russia to fight. It is the pure weight of numbers that has enabled russia to make progress but at what a price. One does have to wonder how long it can be before there are serious protests by mothers who are losing so many of their sons. Or are they mostly from villages where there is little chance of communication and even less chance that anyone would dare speak up anyway?

My concern is the new involvement of North Korean troops in the war, many now being seen on Ukraine territory, although so far largely only in construction work in towns which russia has taken over. North Korea has a huge army and I get the impression that, whilst not experienced in combat, they would simply do whatever their masters tell them.

Using the word masters here reminds me of all the woke nonsense that we have to put up with - people telling us British how bad we are for all sorts of slave trading some centuries ago. Why can these people not be as vocal about what is essentially thousands of slaves being sent to their likely death or certainly of illness or injury by their russian or North Korean masters? It is extraordinary that there are people demonstrating on our streets (and even more violently in other countries) about a whole range of past issues as well as the fate of Hamas supporters in Gaza but who seem totally unable to express any sympathy, never mind support, for the people of Ukraine.

If only all these loud demonstrators and political movers and shakers would get their act together on something which is happening today, pretty much here and now, or at least not very far away, where some nasty people are destroying innocent people's homes and lives. Children have been taken away from families and just disappeared in russia somewhere. How the hell can that be allowed to continue without some real protest by people who are good at protesting about oil or what is or is not happening to the planet.

Let me tell you now that what is happening in Ukraine is causing far greater damage to our planet than anything oil executives are doing or that some government minister is not doing. Some idiot minister can cancel the issue of new oil or gas drilling licences in the North Sea at the drop of a hat but ask anyone in the government to do anything of any real significance to deter russia or anyone else destroying life and limb in Ukraine and they'll just mumble about looking into it or make a speech and shake someone's hand but actually do bugger all.

Time and time again it has been made very clear that this war could have been ended had every country that found russia's action offensive and wrong made their views perfectly clear by providing support for the Ukraine army, on the ground, in the air, over cyberspace and at every international meeting where there was an opportunity to demonstrate, yes, demonstrate that support in whatever way they felt would get the message across to Putin and his team. "Get out now or we will force you out. There are plenty of us. We're well-equipped and willing to stand and defend the innocent."

Instead, we have all shuffled around on the outskirts and mumbled how bad it is and how 'someone ought to do something'. We should be shouting that someone needs to do something. That someone is our Prime Minister who should instruct our forces to go and do what's right. The last one should have done that as should the two before him. President Biden talks a good talk when he gets the words the right way round but, again, nothing actually happens. Everyone simply hopes, if they were to tell the truth, that the problem will just go away. That Putin will stop at some point and try to settle for what he has gained and just you try arguing against 'peace' at that point! Anyone objecting will be all too quickly placed on the pedestal of bad people wanting to prolong war, the loss of more lives and so forth. 

Even those politicians who have managed to send some actual planes or material to Ukraine have tied the hands of the Ukraine commanders and their troops over there by restricting what they can do with them. This is sheer madness. If russia knows that they are not going to be hit by a missile by staying a few miles inside the border, on their own territory, and firing off all kinds of nasty stuff from there then they will do so. If they thought that they might get pulverised by a few NATO missiles falling out of the sky then they'd think twice, move away and some hospital, train or electricity station might now be intact and children not buried under rubble.

There must be a hundred scenarios whereby russia can be appropriately restricted and pinned back in key areas if only other countries would add their men and weapons and intelligence to the battle. It could even be difficult to identify which country was supporting in this way and so impossible for russia to justify launching anything offensive at a NATO country which it would, in any event, do at its peril as that would most certainly bring a hail of metal down upon towns and key installations in russia.

"Oh, but what if they fire a nuclear missile at us?" you ask. 

"If they do, it gets intercepted and, at the same time a lot more get sent their way from every NATO base that has one ready. Whilst, yes, one or two towns can be demolished and a great many lives lost, the whole of russia will be devastated. They lose. They know that. So they won't fire first anything of much significance."

It's one of those questions that annoying women ask at meetings - like "So you don't mind innocent people getting killed?" How can you answer that? "No. I am perfectly happy to see people dying." or "No, you're quite right, we shouldn't risk any more loss of life". Clearly the latter is the more reasonable, more human-sounding. But the clever question misses the point. By not fighting the bully, the bully wins. Every time. Is that what she wants? Russia to take over Ukraine? Keep the kids they stole? Not acknowledge or be punished in any way for the atrocities at so many cities, towns and villages? So we have to say "Yes, I am prepared to see innocent people killed if it means that there is a chance of the bully being stopped and more killings avoided. It is not a pleasant concept. It is risky. But if Russia does not believe that we will cause considerable damage if they do not cease then they will not cease. " It really is as simple as that. There will be more loss of life and there is nothing we can do about that. Let us just try to ensure that there are no more Ukrainian lives or livelihoods or land or schools or hospitals or crops or power stations lost.

Now, back to that timeline:

August 2024. Trip to Ukraine . . .

One year later: at last, a little freedom.

A few days ago most of the legal restrictions on our behaviour here in England were withdrawn. Some shops and premises may still ask us to wear a facemask but the social distancing, rules about how many may eat here or there and legal requirements for a facemask have gone. We are now, as I advocated we should be a year ago, responsible for our own behaviour and for the assessment of the risks we face.

It does, indeed, very much look as though the whole set of restrictions have been of little actual impact on the progress of the virus over the years. There is a distinct possibility that we might have been better off with good advice but not regulation, with businesses mostly continuing and not being forced to close and, in most environments, left to individual decision as to where we go, with whom and whether masked or not.

I am sure there will be plenty of reports written in years to come but I do feel very strongly that we will never again be asked to give up our freedoms of behaviour and association and movement again. It was a mistake but a mistake that is easily forgiven. Even I thought it reasonable at the time and may well have been persuaded by the 'science' and the 'data' which all looked terribly scary.

The fact is that those who make these decisions were advised by others who worked on scenarios for what might evolve. None, and I mean none, of these scenarios were even close to what actually transpired. Neither the numbers being hospitalised nor dying from the virus came close to even the most optimistic of predictions. But, as I have said, it is perfectly reasonable to accept that those who were making the decisions were unable to question those statistics in any meaningful way at the time. More recently, as other nations have taken fright once more as the omicron variant runs riot and bangs up infection numbers again and they have started locking down once more, closing borders and all sorts of other stuff, Britain has dropped the regulations. We have seen the numbers of infections rise, yes, but we have not seen any particularly dreadful rise in people becoming seriously ill. Some may say Boris and Co. took a chance last month when we were relieved of the legal burdens. It has proved correct. Denmark has done the same. Others will follow.

It is, of course, so difficult to argue with that person who screams at you about the extra risk that someone might die. It's true, by having less control there is a chance that someone , somewhere will do something stupid and cause someone else to be infected who is particularly vulnerable and they die. It is equally possible that fewer people will die as a result of more being able to be treated, perhaps in a particular way as a result of business developments that help the economy pay for more research which in turn make better treatment available, or more people to provide it through more freedom of movement. It is less easy to get across to the shouting person on Twitter who hates the government but it must be attempted.

Freedom from regulation and individual responsibility will, I am sure, lead to no more deaths or damage to health overall and, indeed, I maintain that it will help an awful lot of people suffering through frustration or worry at the moment, be that for a business that is barely surviving or some kid next door with a pervy parent.

The big thing that has made all this possible, and to which I referred one year ago, is vaccination. I had my first a year ago and now have had three. We've since had Delta, some other variants briefly of concern and then Omicron. The vaccine has dealt with all of them very nicely. I got a cold a while ago. It may have been COVID. It may not. I didn't care too much as it was just a cold and now it's gone.

That's what will happen now and next winter and, no doubt, in winters to come. People will catch colds. People will get the 'flu. Some may get some type of COVID-22 or -23 for all I know. But no more people are likely to die or get seriously ill than would be the case with colds, 'flue etc of old. We will naturally keep away from people and places where we think we might catch something. We will naturally avoid passing whatever we might catch to anyone else. We don't need laws telling us to behave that way. It's normal human behaviour. It has done us proud over goodness knows how many hundred thousand years and I'll bet on it continuing to do so.

The biggest threats have always been when people try to control us, be that as generals controlling soldiers or someone telling me what I can and can't think. Leave me alone. I want to live, not exist, please.

Repeat after me: I am definitely going to die but probably not for some considerable time nor from COVID19

For many months now I have been doing my weekly shop at Tesco in Towcester early on a Saturday morning. This avoided the necessity of queueing and, more recently, with queueing not being required, also meant that I encountered few people when travelling round the aisles.

This morning I woke up a little later than usual and so my visit was at about 9am instead of 7:30am. There wasn't a huge difference but I did notice how many more people were around as I moved from the bacon to the bananas. I hesitated often, waiting for someone to move their trolley or leave room for me to reach for some butter. It was only later that it dawned on me that I had been vaccinated three weeks earlier. I was now most unlikely to get COVID19. Even if I did, or a variant of it, I was more likely to be involved in a motor accident on the way home than be seriously ill as a result. The COVID19 family of viruses now should be, to me, of no more concern than 'flu as I have had to look out for in all the years before.

That's quite a thought! It's over. For me, and for all the 15 million others who have now had their injection. We're really not going to get ill from this thing. But it seems very clear that this thought has not really had much, if any, impact on the vast majority of us. It was most odd. I was still slightly scared of other people today. I remember getting particularly worried a month or so ago when a supermarket in Zhytomyr became very busy. I was struggling both mentally and physically to make some space for myself, holding my breath until I could take a gasp which may not contain droplets of the virus I was sure must be being exhaled by at least one of the many people who had come into the warm shop from a freezing outside. I had to get out and it was such a relief to breathe the cold but cleaner air in the street outside. That was then. That was when I was vulnerable and might die from getting the virus, for all I knew, or, like many others we would see on TV, become extremely ill and have to be treated in hospital. Hospital, sadly the one place where it seems people almost definitely do get the virus if they haven't already got it. But that was then. When Ukraine's data for new cases, and certainly the lack of apparent effort by anyone other than the trolleybus ladies to minimise infection meant that I knew I was taking a risk being there. This is now. I am not going to get ill. Well, certainly not any more likely to get ill than in any other year. I have to tell myself this repeatedly and still don't quite believe it.

I am pretty certain that I am actually one of the few who is even thinking this far in the direction of positivity or optimism. I reckon there are massive numbers of old folk still huddled indoors and keeping as far away from anyone else as they possibly can, protecting themselves and 'doing the right thing', letting the State tell them what to do and until it tells them to circulate, act naturally again, this is their life. Locked away and at a distance. They feel safe that way. Why change? Someone says that there may be a variant that their particular brand of vaccine may not control. Someone else reminds them that 90% efficacy means that 10% of people may still catch the virus. These people will usually reckon that they could be one of those 10% and logic is on their side as, yes, they could be. But probability is not on their side and this is what the whole country is soon going to have to wake up to. Yes, some people will still die, even after having the vaccine, even after having the second dose. Indeed, we all have a 100% chance of dying at some point in the future. But the chances of dying from COVID19 are very small, even without the vaccine, With the vaccine they are already at a level which makes several other activities in which we are engaging  without a second thought far more risky. We need to think now that COVID19 is like 'flu in many ways. We may still get it but it is highly unlikely to cause us serious problems and extremely, genuinely extremely unlikely to give those of us who have been vaccinated, and an awful lot of others too, any problems now.

Try and let this thought settle in your mind. 

Yes, there are still dangers. We can carry the virus and transmit it to someone else. As that person may be vulnerable or at a particular risk of a problem from getting COVID19 then we do need still to maintain social distancing. Indeed, we are, at the time of writing, still under Lockdown anyway so none of us can circulate or greet people in the old-fashioned ways, get close to anyone we don't live with or have something called a bubble with. So it can only be a thought. But let it be a good thought. Let it grow and develop into some kind of confidence that this thing is beaten. Just as soon as the majority of the population have had their vaccine injection and there is no new nasty mutation of the virus then we will be free again to live pretty much as normal. Actually, it should be as normal. 

Once other countries have also defeated the virus or have adequate provision to treat it, it does appear then we should be able to travel freely again too, with people not being subjected to crazy restrictions on arrival or for us to have the same inflicted on landing elsewhere. Already I know of some countries where I could, if the law permitted, fly and not face all sorts of requirements before entering. There may continue to be a few places where the virus has not been properly controlled and risks remain by virtue of a new strain having developed. We should avoid those places and ensure people don't come here from them also. But these places are unlikely to be on our normal schedules for where we want to go. I will be more than happy to have my travels restricted to a few places in Europe, Ukraine and Malta for as long as necessary!

I do understand why I am having to stay at home and being careful with who I meet and how close I get while the rest of the world gets vaccinated. I will be frustrated however at a delay in lifting the Lockdown once all the vulnerable people and, say, over 65s have been vaccinated and no further nasty strains discovered which might still kill me. I will also be frustrated at a continuing plethora of restrictions to travel to places I wish to visit where I see no great risk either to my health or those of the people I may meet there. A test before I travel should be sufficient, plus proof that I'll be OK by virtue of my injection. If they're being really careful then, OK, put me in quarantine too when I get there, just in case I am carrying something, but not in some hotel at £2000 a throw and I certainly should not need this on my return to the UK.

If I don't visit a place with nasty new stuff and we're all pretty much vaccinated to the hilt in the UK then I am not going to cause anyone any harm by returning to my own country.

So, I shall remain patient. But not for long. From here on the delay is purely for the benefit of other people. Let that thought develop. It really is just like 'flu now for me and that didn't bother me. I was familiar with the probabilities then. We all need to be familiar with the probabilities now.

Overkill

 A PCR type of test costs about £150. If I go to visit Olga in Ukraine as things stand at the moment I will have to purchase a test before I can fly back and then two more during my period of quarantine on my return. The pre-flight test is, presumably, to ensure that I don't have the virus and so will not be bringing it back to the UK. So I am not entirely sure I know why I need another test two days later. It is highly unlikely that I will have picked anything up on the way back but I suppose there are several places where that could be possible - the bus from Zhytomyr to the airport, people I've been near at the shops or in the street or travelling to get the result during the day or two since getting the pre-flight test. So the next test I have to have on arrival would reveal that but after then I am in quarantine and not in circulation so the third test does seem a bit over the top. The extra costs in Ukraine already more than double the bill for the visit when my tickets are normally only around £50 but the further £300 hits hard.

The press and all the talk at the moment is about people who just want to have a holiday or escape to the sun. There was a distinctly envious tone in many conversations I overheard on this subject when, just before lockdown, some people were in a Tier that permitted travel abroad. I was not flying for a 'holiday'. I was visiting my friend in a grey and damn cold town in Ukraine. Yes, I enjoyed my stay but I would have much preferred to have brought Olga here if it had been possible. Until she gets a visa then I need to be the one who does the travelling. I think it is a pretty normal and acceptable thing to do; visit a loved one. 

OK, so there are people in the UK at the moment who cannot be close to their close family members. The difference is they can see them, get within two metres and, in many senses of the word if not quite all, meet them and see how they are getting on, talk, laugh and communicate easily. I have been vaccinated so I won't catch anything from my friend and she is content to take the chance that she won't catch anything from me. People here can also have 'bubbles' and many I know use this to get closer than two metres so I don't think I am doing anything particularly bad or irresponsible. It's just the 'flying' thing that seems to bother people.

Things were not helped when we saw pictures of some people called 'influencers' enjoying the sun and expensive surroundings of hotels in Dubai, one of the countries that had accepted quite willingly people from UK (until very recently) and these people were able to use the excuse of 'business' to travel even if they came from a Tier 4 area or even after lockdown were able to travel legally. These 'influencers' are mostly attractive young girls who promote make-up or clothing products through video blogs and, although I am sure they really do not need to make the videos from holiday resorts, they probably do produce a better look than a semi detached suburban garden in Surrey in February. As is often the case, though, a very small number of people can make a big splash and papers like The Sun and jealous journalists were able to wind up Mr & Mrs Disgusted in Tonbridge Wells. Business travel is permitted and if people can get away with that as an excuse, good luck to them. They are not hurting me and, as they tend to stay where they are and not return in a hurry, they are not likely to either. The trip will be expensive for them and, should they come back soon, they'll need to do the same quarantine and have the same tests as me so I cannot complain about them, other than wishing that they'd not hit the headlines as that inevitably had an influence that the 'influencers' had not intended!

Now I'm locked down. I can't fly anyway. I did think about making it a business trip but I would need to make that genuine and, being in quarantine for 14 days, that's not easy! So, whilst there is a contact there in the die-cast model business that I could be going to see, I'm not inclined to do that. If this lockdown carries on for too long, though, I may reconsider that. As it stands I am going nowhere. 

I wonder why we need to have all these restrictions together. Lockdown, travel bans, quarantine, testing. It's overkill. The talk now is that travel restrictions could remain until not only all of the UK has been vaccinated but the rest of the world too. All we need then is that, just as the last jab goes in someone's arm in Greenland, a new strain appears and worries the hell out of ministers again and we're back where we started while we wait for the recipe to be adapted on the vaccines.

All this is going to carry on for some time, I feel. So my request is that some exceptions are made for people like me so that I can take a flight to visit my friend. And I do think they can cut back on the quarantine - or the tests - one of the two. If we're still in lockdown I don't need to be isolated as well and certainly don't need two further tests. By the time lockdown gets lifted if I did have anything it will have gone or made itself obvious. If we're not in lockdown but still otherwise banned from travelling abroad then put me back in isolation if you must but I really don't need those two tests as well.

There comes a time when we will have to accept that, vaccinated, we are extremely unlikely to be seriously affected by the virus and so should be permitted to get on with life as normal. And 'normal' means visiting those we love. 

Is it chaos or just life as normal in the Green Zone

I am beginning to come to the conclusion that we have got our reaction this COVID-19 threat completely wrong. If I am still in good health in a couple of weeks then I will be certain of it. I am writing this in Zhytomyr, a town in Ukraine where I arrived on a very hot Wednesday 5th August. Suddenly, a few days earlier, the UK and Ukraine both became members of the Green Zone by virtue of someone calculating that their number of 'active cases' had fallen below a certain figure and this meant that I was no longer required to go through a hugely complicated process to enter the country.

A short while ago I would have had to download an app which would report my whereabouts and require me to take a photograph of myself in a particular place within 15 minutes of a request to do so. The app was totally written in Ukrainian and indecipherable to me. I had, with the help of my friend, started to enter some data which I had expected to need, when she told me to stop because people had been reporting problems if the address entered did not tie in with the location assessed by the app's geo-location software. Better to wait until I arrive in Ukraine, she suggested, and I could merely show the border patrol people that it was installed. at least.

In addition I would have to be tested at a specified medical place in town within 24 hours of arrival. If I were found to be free of the virus then the app would be notified by the medical centre and it should then inform me accordingly that I need not remain locked in a particular location thereafter. Despite all their best efforts, though, there had been reports of delays in notification and incorrect results too. So i was not too enthusiastic about the prospect of not being able to leave an apartment for the duration of my stay here.

Finally, I would have to demonstrate that I had insurance that would meet the costs of any medical expenses incurred should I get afflicted with COVID-19 whilst in the country. I had purchased suitable insurance in March but, unfortunately, not only would it be invalid as a result of the Foreign & Commonwealth Office not recommending travel to Ukraine but, even if, as it turned out, that restriction was lifted prior to my departure, the company issuing the policy needed to have an administrative office of some sort in Ukraine! Mine didn't. For a while this massive hole in the road for anyone trying to get to Ukraine virtually prevented getting here but then the Powers That Be introduced a nifty button on the VisitUkraine website which enabled insurance cover to be arranged at a quite modest cost for the duration of the trip. I had been worried that there might be an age limit or some restriction for previous health issues but no, oldies like me were accepted and so I was able to see how to overcome one hurdle at least.

I was prepared to take a chance on the results thing but, to my delight, the UK changed from Red Zone to Green Zone and all that testing and quarantine stuff evaporated away, leaving only the insurance requirement and a bundle of papers to show the border patrol officer.

On arrival at Zhulainy Airport, a pleasant and efficient little airport, it soon became clear that most travellers from the UK had not done their homework. They might have learned when they boarded the plane as we were all asked to show our insurance documents. As they arrived at the border patrol officer's window they all started having to dive into their cases once more, not only for the same document but also for some paperwork which would show where they would be staying and with contact details. No-one seemed to have completed the forms and so were trying to dictate awkward-sounding addresses to the officer and it all took a great deal of extra time. Yes, I had everything all ready. I was determined not to fall at that sort of hurdle!

The real surprise, however, came as I left the airport. Almost no-one had a mask or face covering. No-one seemed to pay any attention to what we call social distancing. Taxi drivers were just like they had always been and there was no cleaning of seats every time someone got out. I had rather suspected that even in the UK this wouldn't be likely to happen but the drivers might make a semblance of effort at least. 

The bus from Kyiv outskirts to Zhytomyr was pretty full and stiflingly hot. A couple of passengers wore face coverings but that was all. To be honest it was quite a relief not to have felt obliged to wear mine in such heat and, instead, I spent most of the long journey leaning forward to attempt to make the most of the cooler air flow from a nozzle above my friend's seat. Real chaos ensued on the local buses in Zhytomyr town. Usually jam-packed anyway, they had been restricted to certain numbers prior to May but since the easing of many restrictions in the country, people just clambered aboard and stood close to each other as they always had done. There was an occasional face covering but the majority of people seems to dangle theirs from one ear or not bother at all. It was ruddy hot and I can well understand. Mine stayed in my pocket for the most part. Only on entering shops and offices did we use them and even then, if a brief look around showed that no-one was bothering with them, they were dropped or removed again.

One notable exception was on the trolley buses. Here a small round lady would control the numbers getting on at each stop to ensure that there were the same number as were seats available. Needless to say, I spent most of the journey wondering why on Earth an old chap with a dirty old shopping bag was hanging from a bar above my seat and blocking everyone's passage down the bus when there were plenty of seats empty.

In the streets people busily went about their business or shopping or just chatting in the street much as I reckon they always had done. I started trying to give others a wide berth and to avoid breathing in any air that might have recently been breathed out by a passer-by. That didn't last very long. Old and young, healthy-looking and infirm, men and women, all of us basically seemed to be operating on the basis that there was no such thing as COVID-19 or, if there were, it was no great shakes and, as with each years 'flu, what will be will be.

All so very different to the UK that I had left only a short time earlier. There our behaviour is much more tightly regulated and, whilst there may have been some areas where the number of new cases has been growing rapidly, generally we seem now not to be experiencing anything very different in ill health or deaths than might have been expected in any average year. It is also worth noting that even our very heavy death toll of 46000 is of similar magnitude, proportionately, to the deaths from Asian 'flu in 1957 when we took little precaution other than common sense.

We get angry at the mobs or youths and not-so-young too congregating at holiday beaches or tourist beauty spots and decry their irresponsibility at 'spreading the virus'. Personally I am more angry at the mess they leave behind and lack of good manners so many seem to show when they leave their council estates and carry-out meals in front of massive buy-now-pay-later tvs on their reclining buy-now-pay-later sofas to share the real British countryside. Do we ever read about any of these idiots getting ill or dying? Or, for that matter, those who might be expected to suffer from their proximity, the people who actually live in these lovely places. 

I think we should encourage them all to get the hell out of Britain and soil some foreign country's beaches if they have to behave that way. Make it easier to travel abroad, not more difficult. And let's not stop there. Let's lift all the restrictions and just get back to life as it was at the start of the year, or as close as we can get to that. By all means be selective about who we permit to join us from other places but the true chaos is, in my opinion, going to be in the United Kingdom, not Ukraine from here forward.

COVID-19 New Cases around the world

As mentioned in the last article, I have been watching the data across the world and, i particular, the numbers of new cases each day and my sheet expresses these as the number per 1m population. This, I feel, provides a better comparison that mere totals and the total active cases seem most unreliable with totally different methods of calculation in different places.

I do appreciate, of course, that there will also be huge problems in the reliability of some of the data from countries with poor recording or testing facilities or procedures. This will almost certainly mean that where the virus has taken hold in a poor, less well-equipped country then the  number of active cases must be significantly higher than the official data shows. or all that, I do feel this is a useful guide, especially as 'active' cases are not available for the UK and some other countries and it is really to see how we're doing in comparison to others that I do this. More in hope than anything else these days, though.

I got a mouthful from some woman in Portugal when I put these on Facebook. She was most offended that I had shown Portugal as red and UK as a nice apple green. Clearly, as she pointed out amongst the huffing and puffing, every country will have lovely safe places where no-one is ill and you can happily visit and hug people and wander around without a mask. I am sure Portugal has many. But unless someone provides me with all the detailed regional data all I can share is the national stuff and, indeed, that is what tends to guide authorities, for better or worse. But, yes, don't make any decisions based on what I publish. It's purely data, made a little more comprehensible.

Depending upon what I am doing with this sheet from time to time it may change to show all the days or may be filtered to show just Europe or just certain areas of the planet.

Stuck in the Red Zone

This is not exactly Astcote news but I feel I need to write about the continuing confusion and difficulties getting away. There is a definite sense that we are pretty much clear of the virus in this part of the country and people are, albeit cautiously still, coming out and moving around a lot more than they have been doing for many weeks. With this new-found freedom, however, comes the dreaded masks, or I should say, face covering. I am not at all fond of the things which strap around your ears and have instead acquired a supply of quite nice banadanna things. They're made of thin material, seem quite easy to breathe through and look a lot more decent and, if not natural, a little less science fiction. However, I am still not inclined to wear them unless I really have to and I really will have to in shops in a week's time.

I shall be doing my best to avoid shops, therefore, while this face covering thing is necessary. With that in mind, and also encouraged by beginning to look more like a tree than a human, I got a haircut in Towcester yesterday. It was totally unplanned, a spur of the moment thing and I simply called in at the first salon I came to after parking my car. A nice Romanian chap did a first class job and took so long I wondered whether he'd ever finish. With no-one else in sight, though, I guess it didn't matter. I had intended to hang on until I reached Zhytomyr where an excellent young lady would take care of my thatch for a very small price but goodness only knows when I will get there.

Ukraine still lists the UK as a Red Zone and so I would have some difficulties on arrival. There has been an improvement and some much-needed clarification, however. It seems that I would have to download an app on my phone using a Ukraine SIM card. Luckily my phone can have two SIM cards so that is feasible but not for many people I would imagine. It will, however, be entirely in Ukrainian so I won't have a clue what it says but Olga would be able to help.

Having downloaded the app and shown this to Border Police on arrival (assuming I manage that on my own, that is!)  I can then choose either to have a test within 24 hours in Zhytomyr or quarantine myself for 14 days at a stated address. If the test shows I am clear of the virus then a message should be sent to my phone and the app will no longer be needed. Until then, however, or if I choose not to have a test at all, I will be called at random by some official who will want to see a selfie of me at the stipulated address given on arrival. If I do not do this within 15 minutes I can be arrested and taken to Chernobyl to do gardening or something.

Knowing Ukraine administration, however, I have some doubts that my results would be communicated very quickly, if at all, or that I would recognise the message if it arrived. And, of course, there is the small matter of the possibility of my results being mixed up with someone who has got the virus - or, God help me, I do actually have it! - and I finish up in some grotty hospital miles from anyone who speaks English.

So I am inclined not to go until the UK is Green - but there lies another problem. It seems that to go Green a country has to have fewer than 400 'active' cases per 100,000 population. So that's about 25000 for the UK. Now, I cannot find any statistics anywhere that provide the number of 'active' cases for the UK. I can find 'accumulated total' cases since Year Dot and 'new' cases each day but not 'active' cases. So I assume that it is reasonable to calculate 'active' cases as the number of people who had the virus but have not yet got better. I can add up the number of 'new' cases over the last month and that is about 25000. OK, but many of those people will have recovered or probably not even had any problems to get better from in many cases. And surely there will not be many people who have had it for more than a month? So the total could be, in reality, pretty close to, if not quite a lot lower than 25000 and the UK is, in my view, definitely in the Green Zone.

So why do we appear in the Red Zone all the time? My conclusion is that there is a fundamental error that seems to have been missed. We are testing 200,000 or more people every day and record those who have the virus. What we don't do is test people later so there is no evidence that they do not have it any more. The records for the vast majority of people are simply that they had it and, to all statistical intents and purposes, still have it and are thus 'active'! Without a procedure to test the same vast numbers again and take them off the 'active' list the UK is well and truly buggered in terms of how it will be viewed by other nations. Probably for ever.

Consequently, assuming nothing gets done about this (and I have written to some well-connected people), I shall just go on 5 August and hope for the best. I have a ticket for 22 July but I think I won't make that one. 5 August is OK and I return on 21 August. Then I have another for 7 September and again 12 October. I am hoping that we can have a holiday in October / November, probably Malta as the weather will be nice then.

I had been watching the list of Green Zone countries, which supposed to be updated daily, slowly scrolling to the bottom and hoping that United Kingdom would appear, doing this several times a day. Now I have come to the conclusion that it is not going to happen anytime soon. 

But you can check here. Just in case. You never know!