So my dear friend presently in Zhytomyr is as likely to survive the next month or so as I am. With the way that Russia is throwing whatever missiles it can find, usually donated by North Korea these days, at all and sundry in Ukraine, I cannot decide whether to be a little relieved that her chances of returning to Britain are similar to those for me to welcome her back or somewhat concerned that the risk of my having a fatal accident of some sort is not considerably lower!
After all, she is supposed to take shelter in a basement or some safe place every evening - or more frequently of late, with attacks happening in day time most weeks. She doesn't do so, so I guess her odds of departing this mortal coil are reduced a bit but then I am not the most careful of drivers and have been known to mix up vegetable and meat chopping boards and not look closely at 'eat by' dates so I reckon we're still evenly balanced.
The big difference is that my side of the see-saw is in a pleasantly quiet village in a pleasantly quiet county in England and, whilst my articles have no doubt upset many people, I am not aware of any imminent likelihood of a cruise missile arriving through my roof or a drone chasing me as I walk to the Post Office to post a Corgi Toy to a collector in another pleasantly quiet village in another pleasantly quiet county somewhere. My friend's side is surrounded by the remnants of buildings and the sunlight is often hazy through the smoke and dust thrown up by the last explosion. Whilst she has not, to the best of my knowledge, written any articles that would offend anyone, she does live with the imminent likelihood of a cruise missile coming through a window or being chased around a shopping centre car park by a drone. So far she has been one of the 2999 (or 3999 if we're being optimistic) who are expected not to die this year. That may not be quite the right way to express the implication of my original statistic but you'll get the idea.
You see there are things happening in Ukraine that almost defy credibility, if it were not for the videos and many independent reports of them. A young lad was cycling along a country road from a village to a farm where he had a job looking after some animals rescued from a nearby zoo that had been destroyed by missiles. A Russian drone operator was flying a drone along the road. It was one of those FPV (first person view) types where a spool of glass fibre thread allows the operator to see what is in front of the drone. That can be useful and helps determine the best time to release the explosive or just slam the drone into your target, and, for 'target' one would think that would mean munitions factory, armed military personnel, someone or something engaged in the war. The operator in this instance clearly decided that this young chap represented such a threat that he detonated the bomb under the drone about six inches from the lad's face as he attempted to get off his bike and head for some bushes. Prior to that he had stopped his bike and just stared at the drone, seemingly having no idea what it was as the expression on his face was not fear, but more wonder. I guess the news of the war and its weaponry doesn't reach everyone in Ukraine.
On another occasion a chubby market trader was setting up his vegetable stall in a town. It would have been hard to interpret this man's actions as anything other than wanting to display some vegetables on a table and his vehicle was a white van not a tank or SUV in khaki. Some FPV operator, however, decided that he would end his vegetable selling days with a large detonation after chasing the poor fellow around his van and table for a few minutes. As it happened, this was our fat friend's lucky day and he was shielded from the explosion by his van but he was nonetheless injured by flying drone and van debris.
A taxi on the outskirts of another town, a bus, a train carrying only civilians, nowhere near any military bases any of them, have all been hit by what is now a daily exercise for Russian drone operators with nothing better to do, or perhaps they are instructed to practice on people who cannot fight back. Whatever the case, every single death is simply murder. There will be records of who do what, one of the strange benefits of the Communist Party's insistence on keeping detailed accounts of their personnel and their activities, together with the footage forever embedded in some internet folder somewhere that will be discovered in years to come. There will then be a chance to prosecute and punish everyone responsible for this ghastly business which now has the title 'Drone Safari'.
I have to ask how it can be possible that a Russian operator can simply act as if he is playing a computer game. It will appear very much like that, his view being a laptop screen and controls a steering device or possibly just keys on the keyboard. That young farmhand may have died when someone pressed Delete. Or spacebar for the bus, Enter for the taxi etc. I guess I have answered my own question; they do simply see it as a game. With life expectancy for any of their colleagues on the front line in action averaging a mere 30 minutes it is such a privilege to be safely tucked away from the action that these boys will do whatever they are told and show no hesitation for there will be plenty more very keen to replace them. It will be those who give the orders that will face the most severe consequences of these dreadful actions but every operator will face a Court one day, if an angry mob doesn't find him first.
This war has entered a strange and worrying phase. Most of Russia's missile are getting through, not necessarily to a specific target but hitting something, usually those huge apartment blocks or shopping centres now. They're killing hundreds of civilians, normal people going about their lives as best they can, children and the elderly alike. Just as many schools and nurseries have been destroyed as have factories. This is almost inhuman and very difficult to envisage until you get into the mindset of those ordering the attacks. Destroy as much as you can and maybe that will cause some splintering of Ukrainian public resolve to carry on, especially if this winter is as hard as the last.
This tactic will not work in Ukraine but it may influence people in countries who are currently attempting to support Ukraine. We have already seen the almost complete depletion of American support, although that has been largely due to Trump's extraordinary reluctance to criticise anything Putin does and can anyone even contemplate a reason why he declares Kim Jong Un as a friend? There is something very wrong going on in America and it is so strange that Trump wildly denounces Iran and all that that nation stands for and yet does not call out anything that Russia or, for that matter, the awful North Korean leader does. I cannot in all honesty blame the country for there really is a case of 'forgive them for they know not what they do'. I doubt any North Korean other than the few in high Pyongyang society have a clue as to what is going on in the war, nor for that matter whether the Earth is flat or not. It is Kim Jung Un who is solely responsible for the madness that is North Korea and Putin can play him easily and no-one seems to care how many troops die.
The rest of the world can do itself a favour and basically ignore USA for the time being. Provided we can still access some useful intelligence we do not need them any more and should be better off without them - unless, of course, there is a serious attack on a NATO country which even Trump will not be able to pretend doesn't mean anything. But that is another matter I return to in a moment. For now I look at what can be done to bring this war to an end. America will not help that happen. No other country is likely to do much as things stand, as they have stood for four and a half years. Ukraine and Russia will be the two nations who will end this war, but not as we might have predicted.
Ukraine will continue to take the destruction it cannot avoid but find a way to protect sufficient infrastructure to survive through to Spring. Their actions in attacking the places where missiles are kept, the factories where they are made, the suppliers of the parts they need to make them and also to cause trouble across the country in unreliable oil and fuel supplies, all of these are being very successful and, interestingly, very few attacks are being intercepted by Russian defence systems. We will see more and more of this action. It will not, in itself, stop Russia's attacks and the likely expansion of troops and equipment with conscription and more help from North Korea will replace a lot of lost personnel and weapons for a while.
No territory, however, is likely to be lost or gained over the next year. Except, perhaps, Crimea. and that holds a key to how things might unfold. It is conceivable that Russia will lose any realistic control of the region. They are not really in charge of anything there now in any real sense of the word. That, if maintained, could be the straw that breaks Putin's back of restraint. Or it may be some other devastating event to which he has no option but to respond. He thumps the table and thunders at those around him and demands revenge - and Russia takes a chance.
They have seen clearly how weak European countries seem to be militarily, individually, and also how poorly they seem to be able to respond in any consorted way to events, how America has belittled many of their leaders and effectively ceased to support them. They can see how outdated NATO and most of the current military programmes seem to be and how they have got away to date with a whole raft of incursions and hacking activity and poisoning people on European and British soil. They haven't done so well themselves on the traditional battlefront, we know, and I guess they know too (even if no-one has told Putin) but they do have a load of tricks up their sleeve and this could be when they decide to play one.
It probably won't be anything nuclear. It's more likely to be a massive disruption of internet or power in one or other European country, Not attributable, of course, to Russia. Maybe a drone, appearing to be a Ukraine drone out of control causes a major detonation in another European city or town. Whatever it is, it will be a little bit more than perhaps was planned, hundreds killed perhaps or a power outage causing flights to crash, something which NATO cannot just sit back an say 'hmm don't do that again' but will be obliged to respond to. The response I cannot actually envisage but it may just have to bring America back into the fold and we'll find ourselves on the edge of war with Russia.
I don't believe we will do more than peer over the edge of that precipice but Ukraine will and we will, by means not necessarily open and above board, assist them to such an extent that Russia has no option but to escalate further and take another chance. Once more they'll attempt the 'wasn't me' excuse with Putin playing a morose Bart Simpson. Again it will only inflame more the West and, finally, NATO does declare that most European nations and the USA are at war with Russia. Trump is left pretty much silent and events are now out of his control, remember that Iran is probably still in a mess and he's lost whatever power he had in the Senate.
Putin has no choice but to escalate further and throws everything at Kyiv and other parts of Ukraine, still carefully deliberately not hitting anyone or anything in NATO. Kim Jung Un, however, is not so reticent. He fires a massive nuclear missile at Ukraine. NATO intercept it but manage only to divert it and it lands on Rostov-on-Don.
There the story ends.
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