With all the activity going on at the moment you would think that there could be an end to the war in Ukraine any time soon. I'm not so sure.
Trump says that Zelensky "could end the war today if he wanted to". Well, yes, in theory, he could. He could put up the white flag and say OK we give in. Take this land and that land. End of war. End of story. But then so could Putin. He could tell his forces to stop, go home. Also end of war. Also end of story. And why not ask Trump how he might end the war? Instead of offering Putin nice deals he could be threatening him and anyone who supports Russia's actions with some nice weaponry and formidable sanctions. Instead of threatening to stop supplying Ukraine with weapons and supplies it would have been a great deal more helpful to have offered to supply even more, making it plain that Ukraine would have the resources to resist any Russian advances henceforth and, indeed, they might even be able to force Russia back. If not to the start line, at least far enough to force Putin to reconsider whether it would be worthwhile trying to get more than a few towns in Eastern Ukraine. So Trump could end it if he wished too.
So it seems clear to me that Trump is full of shit and is neither particularly bright nor being particularly well-advised by those he listens too. That being the case, I expect nothing of significance from today's meeting between Zelensky and Trump.
What is a little more interesting is the announcement, seemingly accepted as fact by America, that Ukraine be granted the same rights of entitlement to defence support as if they were a full member of NATO. That's the bit where all other NATO countries are obliged to spring to the defence of a member that is attacked. This, however, appears conditional upon Ukraine agreeing to donate huge chunks of territory to Russia. Those chunks would include areas that are not under Russian control at all and would also appear to leave Ukraine with a rather minimal degree of access to the coast. As there is no way that such a commitment would make any sense, Zelensky is not about to make such an agreement and will, therefore, see that offer of NATO-style defence rescinded.
It has all been presented so far in a way that looks as if Zelensky is the bad guy or, at least, if not bad, the one who is intransigent and prolonging any chance of peace. That is clever PR work by Russia and, of course, idiot Trump and his people seem to have helped in that presentation.
A group of European leaders have, however, accompanied Zelensky to the White House and hope to straighten out the idiot Trump before he causes yet more grief. Without them there then we can be pretty sure that Trump will simply repeat the "Zelensky could end the war today if he wanted to" mantra. Slowly that will become embedded and, in true Megan-style, will become his truth and justify another kick in the teeth for Zelensky and the Ukrainian people generally. My hope is that the other leaders around might come out with some better soundbites and, at least, provide some balance against the weight of Putin's propaganda machine.
What can they say or do that will bring about any change, though? In the absence of a quick deal, I can see Trump losing interest. That may not be a bad thing provided he does not withdraw crucial weapons and supply support. Merely throwing his hands in the air in frustration and leaving Putin and Zelensky to fight it out is OK by me. In fact, it might be better. The Europeans seem to have got something of an act together and, whilst a bit short on actual weapons, troops and just about every other thing one needs when defending a country against a nation like Russia, they do seem to be talking sense.
They have repeated a lot, and probably deliberately so as it can take some time for the Trump and Vance brains to process data, that it is absolutely wrong under any kind of legal or moral determination, for one nation to steal land from another by force, let alone killing people in order to achieve it and let alone taking thousands of children from an area and giving them a completely different education based on communist ideology rather than the reality they'd had until carted off. Putin has been wrong, wrong, wrong and has encouraged troops to do wrong. Why should he now be granted some sort of prize? Quite the opposite should be the case, he should be arrested and tried by the International Courts that we have assumed might have jurisdiction over all this.
Zelensky must ignore the implied insult that he only wishes to continue the war. He must reject completely any land being transferred to Russia. The only border should be the one that existed on 23 February 2022. What he could do, and I hope someone will help lead others along this path, is accept that some joint or third party control be set up in some areas. This is not giving land or people's homes away but recognising that the situation has changed in some places so considerably that making them part of Ukraine again could be fraught with difficulty. They can be peaceful areas again, though, with some joint management and, whilst it might seem to give Russia some reward for the killing and invasion, it is just a temporary measure that allows the academics and politicians to work out some long-term solution that is acceptable and, maybe even, right.
The same could apply to Crimea too. There is clearly much academic debate about who the land should belong to and that debate needs to be allowed to develop and conclude with logic and reason, not missiles and mines.
There's no quick fix in any of this. We are fully aware that Putin sees all of Ukraine as being part of 'Russia' and his view will not change. But if the world were to be presented with a solution along the lines I have described then I believe it would be supported widely and anyone seen to be against it would be the obvious one who wishes to maintain the fighting. And that would be Putin, not Zelensky.
Faced with such a move, Putin might well find it unacceptable and commence the escalated and broader attack I have previously suggested as likely. That will only serve to alienate him and his nation even more and even the idiot Trump and idiot Vance will have to recognise that they can no longer do business with the guy and they need to put themselves and all America on the right side of history. Whether NATO-style or not, if Ukraine then gets attacked we should all spring to their defence and end one war by starting another.
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