Pity the poor kids.

Yesterday's meetings at the White House went a lot better for Zelensky than many of us had expected. Once everyone had stopped thanking Donald Trump in the session for the cameras I presume they all went off and actually talked seriously about the situation. What they decided we don't yet know but Trump did make it clear that America would support Ukraine in the event of an attack after some peace had been agreed. Now 'support' could mean almost anything but the references made quite often to a NATO-style clause which would require the nations signed up to defend Ukraine do seem to indicate that all those nations, including America, would provide equipment, men and intelligence.

That does appear to put America back firmly on the Ukraine side in this war, having been apparently straddling the gap between the two. It sounds good news but I find it hard to square this with Trump's meeting just a few days earlier with Putin, in which all was friendly, smiles and hopes of big deals and mutual benefits. To me it just shows how Trump can bend with the wind and one should really not trust anything he says. He is known to like to put people off guard, to make some theatrical attack or comment to get attention, maybe shock value, only to deny ever saying that sometime later or pretending it was not as it sounded. So I find it hard to believe that America would actually do anything other than sell weapons and some services to Ukraine or nations that genuinely are prepared to help directly.

The commitment to defend Ukraine, therefore, was welcome but needs to be more specific. After all, we have made commitments before but, so far, have not honoured them as we should have done, which is largely the reason we are where we are today.

Another main feature of the meetings was the insistence by the French and German leaders that Russia has to cease fighting before anyone can start negotiating with them. Trump's assertion that he has ended 6 wars already and in no cases have there been a ceasefire is demonstrably wrong. He himself, in his own announcements, has referred to a ceasefire in at least four of those instances! BBC Verify staff, obviously attempting to repair their damaged image, correctly identified these discrepancies last night on one of their summary news programmes.

For all that, I am not so sure it matters that much. If Russia is going to stop fighting then it will be for just one of two reasons:

(i) when they believe that they have achieved all that they can reasonably expect to achieve in the short term, or

(ii) when they believe that continuing will have a serious impact upon their own nation, either economically or, possibly, attack.

Until then they may talk about this or that, maybe even agree to this or that but I doubt there will be anything of consequence and they'll just carry on in the meantime. So this business of 'they need to cease fire before anyone can sit down and talk about the future' is somewhat irrelevant.

The most significant development, in my view, has come from the wives of the two leaders. Melania Trump's letter to Putin and Zelensky's wife's letter to her, both regarding the plight of thousands of children taken away by Russian troops to live in distant parts of Russia, not seen since. Ursula von de Leyen spoke very passionately on the same subject during the 'Thank you' session, cleverly attracting a lot of press attention in the process. This abduction of so many innocent children - those who were too young to have any allegiance or political motivation and who could not possibly represent any threat to Russia - is something that is quite unforgiveable and will stay in people's minds for a long time. Whilst it may not rank as highly as the devastation of Mariupol, the destruction of the Kherson dam or the unholy rape and torture by Russian troops retreating in Bucha and some other towns shortly after the invasion, it is the one crime that no-one can justify in any way as something that 'just happens' in a war.

So where are we now? What is going to happen next?

The meetings talked of a Putin-Zelensky summit and Zelensky himself was thankful for Trump's offer to be there, maybe to chair it. Whilst there will have to be a meeting, and documentation signed, should there ever be peace agreed, I don't see that coming any time soon.

Putin has nothing to lose by carrying on, indeed by increasing the destruction and making further advances. I still don't know why he hasn't used some of the serious weapons at his disposal to force Ukraine's surrender by mass destruction of more areas. He has already become one of the most evil and hated leaders amongst people in the free world, other than Trump, that is. Whatever more he does, especially if it brings about a rapid conclusion, will not make his reputation any worse. In fact, he may even gain more respect from those who have supported him to date. The prospect scares me and I really do hope he doesn't take such action but it would have a terrible logic about it that cannot be denied.

Assuming he doesn't hit any red buttons or cause much by way of further destruction in Ukraine and merely moves the line of control by Russia further and further West and South, what do we do? Without having had a ceasefire or any peace agreement, there is no NATO-style defence agreement either and it's down to Ukraine to battle on as best they can. I guess we support them as best we can and America will continue to sell equipment (hopefully not limiting its use) but Ukraine gradually shrinks and troops get tired and this all drags on so sadly into fourth, fifth or more anniversaries.

I mentioned before what would cause Putin to stop. I don't see anyone threatening to attack so the only action that could conceivably work would be heavier sanctions and behind the scenes work to destabilise his control. Those countries who are still supplying weapons and significant trade cannot all be stopped. No-one is going to have a chance to get Kim Jong Un to change his allegiance but China, Brazil and India might recognise some benefit from being less helpful to Russia and could be worked on diplomatically.

This threat to the Russian economy, coupled with some smart activist propaganda and hacking work inside the nation, could make Putin pause for thought. Whether he then does call it a day and settle for what he's gained or simply go for broke and smash the rest of Ukraine - on the ground that he might as well ensure no-one else has anything if he can't - is something no-one can know. 

So even that action gets us nowhere because Putin would still have to give up land that he has taken control of. In Alaska he appears to have intimated that he would only settle for all of Donetsk and Luhantsk regions. He doesn't have all of them now. But let's say that he does manage to keep going and defeat Ukraine's resistance there and finally agrees to stop. Zelensky has no authority to donate those regions and their people to another country. Only his parliament, after approving this by a sizeable majority, can then recommend this and put it to a referendum. Only if that is passed could this actually happen in any legal or permanent way. Otherwise, it will be like the taking of Crimea, something that Ukraine will continue to want returned and will, at some point when they feel strong enough again, or Russian leadership and government changes, start to fight for once again.

Unless I have missed something in all this, I see no way that any agreement can be made with Putin that has any hope of lasting. Any land deal proposal will be defeated by the referendum, even if Zelensky feels he has no choice but to recommend it against all his own beliefs regarding the preservation of a nation's border. No new defence deal with America or Europe will come into being in the absence of any peace agreement. So it all carries on.

It ends only with a new government and attitude in Russia or a major war between Europe and Russia resulting from some move by Russia, either deliberate or in error, that a NATO country is unable to avoid responding to and which Russia loses.

We could have ended this almost as soon as it began in February 2022. I doubt anyone can do anything now. Other than wait. And hope. And pity the poor kids.

The right side

 With all the activity going on at the moment you would think that there could be an end to the war in Ukraine any time soon. I'm not so sure.

Trump says that Zelensky "could end the war today if he wanted to". Well, yes, in theory, he could. He could put up the white flag and say OK we give in. Take this land and that land. End of war. End of story. But then so could Putin. He could tell his forces to stop, go home. Also end of war. Also end of story. And why not ask Trump how he might end the war? Instead of offering Putin nice deals he could be threatening him and anyone who supports Russia's actions with some nice weaponry and formidable sanctions. Instead of threatening to stop supplying Ukraine with weapons and supplies it would have been a great deal more helpful to have offered to supply even more, making it plain that Ukraine would have the resources to resist any Russian advances henceforth and, indeed, they might even be able to force Russia back. If not to the start line, at least far enough to force Putin to reconsider whether it would be worthwhile trying to get more than a few towns in Eastern Ukraine. So Trump could end it if he wished too.

So it seems clear to me that Trump is full of shit and is neither particularly bright nor being particularly well-advised by those he listens too. That being the case, I expect nothing of significance from today's meeting between Zelensky and Trump.

What is a little more interesting is the announcement, seemingly accepted as fact by America, that Ukraine be granted the same rights of entitlement to defence support as if they were a full member of NATO. That's the bit where all other NATO countries are obliged to spring to the defence of a member that is attacked. This, however, appears conditional upon Ukraine agreeing to donate huge chunks of territory to Russia. Those chunks would include areas that are not under Russian control at all and would also appear to leave Ukraine with a rather minimal degree of access to the coast. As there is no way that such a commitment would make any sense, Zelensky is not about to make such an agreement and will, therefore, see that offer of NATO-style defence rescinded.

It has all been presented so far in a way that looks as if Zelensky is the bad guy or, at least, if not bad, the one who is intransigent and prolonging any chance of peace. That is clever PR work by Russia and, of course, idiot Trump and his people seem to have helped in that presentation.

A group of European leaders have, however, accompanied Zelensky to the White House and hope to straighten out the idiot Trump before he causes yet more grief. Without them there then we can be pretty sure that Trump will simply repeat the "Zelensky could end the war today if he wanted to" mantra. Slowly that will become embedded and, in true Megan-style, will become his truth and justify another kick in the teeth for Zelensky and the Ukrainian people generally. My hope is that the other leaders around might come out with some better soundbites and, at least, provide some balance against the weight of Putin's propaganda machine.

What can they say or do that will bring about any change, though? In the absence of a quick deal, I can see Trump losing interest. That may not be a bad thing provided he does not withdraw crucial weapons and supply support. Merely throwing his hands in the air in frustration and leaving Putin and Zelensky to fight it out is OK by me. In fact, it might be better. The Europeans seem to have got something of an act together and, whilst a bit short on actual weapons, troops and just about every other thing one needs when defending a country against a nation like Russia, they do seem to be talking sense.

They have repeated a lot, and probably deliberately so as it can take some time for the Trump and Vance brains to process data, that it is absolutely wrong under any kind of legal or moral determination, for one nation to steal land from another by force, let alone killing people in order to achieve it and let alone taking thousands of children from an area and giving them a completely different education based on communist ideology rather than the reality they'd had until carted off. Putin has been wrong, wrong, wrong and has encouraged troops to do wrong. Why should he now be granted some sort of prize? Quite the opposite should be the case, he should be arrested and tried by the International Courts that we have assumed might have jurisdiction over all this.

Zelensky must ignore the implied insult that he only wishes to continue the war. He must reject completely any land being transferred to Russia. The only border should be the one that existed on 23 February 2022. What he could do, and I hope someone will help lead others along this path, is accept that some joint or third party control be set up in some areas. This is not giving land or people's homes away but recognising that the situation has changed in some places so considerably that making them part of Ukraine again could be fraught with difficulty. They can be peaceful areas again, though, with some joint management and, whilst it might seem to give Russia some reward for the killing and invasion, it is just a temporary measure that allows the academics and politicians to work out some long-term solution that is acceptable and, maybe even, right.

The same could apply to Crimea too. There is clearly much academic debate about who the land should belong to and that debate needs to be allowed to develop and conclude with logic and reason, not missiles and mines.

There's no quick fix in any of this. We are fully aware that Putin sees all of Ukraine as being part of 'Russia' and his view will not change. But if the world were to be presented with a solution along the lines I have described then I believe it would be supported widely and anyone seen to be against it would be the obvious one who wishes to maintain the fighting. And that would be Putin, not Zelensky.

Faced with such a move, Putin might well find it unacceptable and commence the escalated and broader attack I have previously suggested as likely. That will only serve to alienate him and his nation even more and even the idiot Trump and idiot Vance will have to recognise that they can no longer do business with the guy and they need to put themselves and all America on the right side of history. Whether NATO-style or not, if Ukraine then gets attacked we should all spring to their defence and end one war by starting another.

Anchorage, USSR.

 I never expected anything from Anchorage but was astonished by the warm welcome, handshakes, hugs and red carpet given to Putin by the Americans. This is the bloke who has stolen territory from another nation in 2014, then again in 2022 and who has been directly responsible for the loss of hundreds of thousands of people in Ukraine and, indeed, in his own country. Whilst I appreciate the need to talk to Putin and try to find some way out of this awful business, the US soldiers on their knees rolling out that red carpet was beyond belief. It merely confirms the opinion that I came to a long time ago - there are many Very Stupid people running the current presidency.

Putting all that to one side and trying hard not to get angry as the pictures keep appearing of the smiles and that damned carpet, Putin has benefited considerably from this one day in Anchorage, Alaska. He can see that there is no immediate threat of any real concern to him from the world's greatest power at this time and, indeed, that, were it not for this annoying Ukraine issue, he could actually be making some huge deals with the United States and deliver what his country would be delighted to read about and, should those deals lead to improved economic circumstances more widely, the population of Russia would largely cease to worry so much about all that military stuff, which he hadn't intended to tell them about in the first place - another than as some Special Military Operation that was a matter of tidying up some past errors in borders that needed to be fixed.

Now he must feel free to continue as he pleases as, with support from the US, who is going to stop him?

And that is what really worries me now. I fear a massive escalation as Russian troops make a renewed effort to capture those key places that would give them almost permanent control over the East and permit a further build-up of resources and men so that a successful attack could be formulated against Kharkiv from the East and North and I would not be at all surprised to see a stream of forces coming South from the Belarus border quite soon. That would enable all the currently relatively peaceful parts of Ukraine to be taken over and with Ukraine troops then spread so thinly in all directions I cannot see how they could stop any advance.

Last time they did because they had fresh troops and plenty of them and, particularly relevant, Russian troops and equipment were dreadfully poor both in operation and planning. I think they thought they could just walk in and get little resistance so no-one bothered to plan seriously for anything other than moving in and taking over. They probably spent more on making new forms to be filled in and passports for the Ukraine population than they did on checking that equipment worked and troops knew where they where supposed to go.

This time Russian military leaders appear to have learned from their mistakes in 2022 and, whilst not doing brilliantly well, they have developed systems for minimising the impact of the Ukraine drones and they have built up considerably greater and fresher forces than Ukraine will ever be able to manage. North Korea has, of course, also topped up the numbers which has allowed commanders to send masses into battle along the old-fashioned lines of whoever has the most people in a battle will win as long as they can keep replenishing those killed. North Koreans have been easy cannon-fodder that no-one has really been worried about losing. No awkward explanations to mothers needed for them.

So I cannot imagine why Putin should not now surge forward in all directions, maybe assisted by some heavy bombing to minimise defence and resistance in a few towns along the way and also to show anyone in the West thinking about leaping to Ukraine's defence that there's not a great deal of point any more as it is all effectively going to be over soon.

A modest nuclear explosion or two would serve to test just what the rest of us would actually do. I am afraid to say that I don't think we would do anything other than moan loudly and have a lot of meetings. With that confirmation that we won't even defend Ukraine when they're being bombed or chemically weaponed out of existence but merely allow as many as can escape with their lives to come and live in Europe or the British Commonwealth, Putin can simply get what he wants and then consider what to do about Georgia and maybe some other errant states as he gradually pulls the USSR back together.

I suspect he'll leave those countries lucky enough to have been able to join NATO and accept that they're not coming back just yet so the European Union and Britain can take a break and gradually issue new maps for the atlas books.

There will still be demonstrations about Gaza or Palestine and how bad we all are in our attitude to what is happening there. None of those people with time to wave placards and cause trouble in Britain, however, will be bothered about all the children that have already disappeared into Russia, forcefully taken from parents in Ukraine towns that Russian troops control. None of those people will be bothered about a vast country that was peaceful on February 23, 2022 now under threat of being subjugated to communist party control, with children taught that their country should never really have existed and their parents obliged to fight to attack resistance in Ukraine instead of defending Ukraine. 

I said at the start how stupid many powerful Americans seem to be. Add the Hamas-loving Palestine liberation supporters wandering around our towns and cities at a time when other causes are far more deserving of attention and action to that list. And the idiotic politicians who also support them and the judges who don't punish them.

I was going to add the politicians who, since 2014 have just looked away or done little but hold meetings and make speeches at best in defence of Ukraine, to the Really Stupid list but that's not right. They all belong in the Really Scared list. Because that's why we have done nothing. Not because it would cost money, Not because Ukraine isn't in NATO. Not because Ukraine is a long way away. Not because we're a bit short of troops and equipment. Not because we haven't been directly threatened ourselves. Not because it wouldn't be right. No, because we're scared.