I think it is fair to say that the number of people who think Russia should carry on bombing or attempting to invade whatever they can hit or reach with troops in Ukraine is minimal - maybe just a few thousand outside of the Russian Federation. No-one can be quite sure about the numbers within the country, of course, but they’re not being terribly well-informed so we’ll excuse those millions who do think it’s a good idea and not count them in the total.
Whichever way one reads this then, isn’t it quite extraordinary that more than 3½ years later men, women and children, old folk, babies and pets are being killed by either Russian troops or some Russians firing missiles or directing drones from the safety of a room with a computer screen. It is almost beyond comprehension and I am sure we will look back in years to come and wonder just how it was allowed to continue.
It isn’t solely Russian troops as they have been assisted by North Korea’s troops but their involvement is almost more crazy and will be another matter for comment when we can see what actually does happen in time to come.
At the time of writing, Kyiv and several other cities and towns are being attacked every night, usually by a combination of a mass of drones and various missiles. Some get shot down and fall harmlessly to the ground but many slam into apartment blocks, hospitals, restaurants or wherever often faulty navigation devices have sent them. Any claim that the target may have been purely military is unlikely to be true but even if it were, the quality of most of the weapons now being fired or used is rather poor. It’s not that Russia is running out of weapons but whoever is making replacements is not doing a good job.
Ukraine doesn’t have much by way of weapons to fire back these days and is having to seek an alternative method of war to the traditional ones. Recently they have been particularly successful in two areas: local intelligence inside Russia and use of drones to incapacitate aircraft or facilities on the ground in Russia. This has kept them in the game but one still gets the impression that all that Ukraine’s brave and intelligent efforts have is little more than the annoyance of a fly buzzing around the face of the Russian bear. I worry so much that before long the patience of Grizzly will break and the people who make decisions over there simply say enough is enough and throw the big stuff across the border. Either a mass invasion of hundreds of thousands of troops coming north from Belarus and/or use of some massive missiles that cause Hiroshima-style damage that ends it all once and for all.
Why hasn’t Russia done more, done far better over all this time? This country with its supposedly massive supply of nuclear weapons, that is sufficient to make Trump wet his pants at thoughts of the threat and want to be friends with whoever has his finger on the Big Red Button, is struggling to make any headway in Ukraine? Indeed, their first invasion was almost embarrassing were it not so awful with the behaviour of Russian troops in retreat and the mistreatment of women and children in the villages. Whilst Russia did take some control over parts of four regions in the East, no-one lives and there is no economic activity in the towns they devastated in the process. So even that small advance seems of questionable value.
To a large extent life goes on as it always has in much of the north and west of Ukraine. The difference is that there are no planes in the sky and no young men on the streets, or at home, for that matter. The only tourists come by van laden with materials and donations from abroad. Prices match those in England for food that is grown locally and far exceed them for anything else. You need to be quite well-off to live in Ukraine now.
In Kyiv and Odessa you take your chances because that’s where the majority of attacks are focussed so you can have a sort of 50-50 existence. Enjoy a cup of coffee at the café one day and be blown up there the next. Choose your days well and all will be well. Or not, as the case may be. That seems to be the attitude of those who continue to try and live ‘normally’ there. In most towns the constant whine of the sirens will keep newcomers awake but locals sleep soundly through now. Seeing young teenage girls with their eyes fixed on mobiles in a bunker underground somewhere at 2am is an odd sight, though, that still haunts me. You think they’re playing a game or texting a friend but they’re watching the missiles fly on an app which everyone uses to determine how much at risk they may be at any point of time.
In Kharkiv you get the feeling that everyone has joined a Resistance Movement. Even grandmothers can be seen wearing military clothes out shopping and carrying a gun. They expect Russians to appear around every corner and God help a blue-eyed white guy who just happens to be running along nearby. I wouldn’t feel safe there today and neither my Russian nor Ukrainian is sufficient to explain to anyone challenging me rapidly enough that I am on their side.
Here in Britain we welcomed those escaping the initial horrors with welcome arms and a bit of support, although not as much as we give to illegal immigrants now I think about it. Now everyone is beginning to get tired and the blue and yellow flags flying in many streets in towns and villages are looking a little drab and worn. We wonder when the people will be able to go back. We like the Ukrainians that we meet here, although we do wonder quite what the men are doing here. No-one likes to say out loud but there is an unspoken regard of the men as being a little too fortunate, perhaps, to have been able to drive an expensive car filled with their families and many of their valuables. Having said that, I am pretty sure my inclination would have been to run too and take whatever I could out of the place.
The problem is that no-one really can understand why on Earth Russia is still ploughing on and trying to kill more Ukrainians and take over this or that deserted village in the East.
We have seen Trump come and go in relation to this war. His attention was taken by Israel and Iran but I have a feeling he was quite relieved to have fewer questions being asked about what he had failed to do. His awful appeasement of Putin has left a bad mark on his presidency which may well come to haunt him, however powerfully he may attempt to change the news on other matters he regards as being success.
Without American assistance and approvals Ukraine will not have enough firepower or resources to continue to hold back Russia as things stand at the moment. But that doesn’t mean Russia can advance either. It is a sort of stalemate and could stay that way for months, as each side looks at alternative ways - in Russia’s case, to overcome Ukraine resistance; in Ukraine’s case to continue to resist and minimise Russian weapon threats. Trump will not feature, in my opinion, in any future scenario. Europe might, in some form, if leaders really can put on a convincing show that they have some sort of red line over which, should Russia cross, they will react in a way that will escalate matters.
One almost wishes that we had Israel's IDF on our side. They’d get on with the job that we avoided at the beginning.
So nothing much new is happening in Ukraine at the moment; just people getting older and others dying too young.
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