Three years.

Heavens alive. Three years and we're still having everything thrown at us by russia for no good reason that I can understand other than that Putin wants to turn the clock back to 1990 or whenever it was that the United Soviet Socialist Republics existed.

So many people have died or had their whole world turned upside down, or simply destroyed, either partially or, in many places, completely. Children and even whole families have disappeared into russia, never to be seen again. Terrible atrocities have taken place which we only know a little about but, be sure, we will read about many, many more in time to come.

So where are we now? 

Events have taken a curious turn and I am not too sure what to make of them.

We have the most extraordinary (and appalling) votes in a United Nations session. The US opposed a European-drafted resolution condemning Moscow's actions and supporting Ukraine's territorial integrity - voting the same way as Russia and countries including North Korea and Belarus at the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York. Then the US drafted and voted for a resolution at the UN Security Council which called for an end to the conflict, but contained no criticism of Russia.

However powerful Trump may believe the US to be on the world stage, to me they are beginning to look extremely bad, standing together with such ridiculously badly-run nations as North Korea, Belarus and goodness knows who else on the far edges of what we recognise as society. How must Americans be feeling to see their country on that side of history? I had already lost all respect for Trump last week but this merely confirms everything. He must have a very muddled mind to believe that he will in any way be praised for any of these actions. Or that they will achieve anything but distrust and a move by those genuine allies that we have to view a future world in which we can just ignore America.

My guess is that Trump sees all this as a sort of business transaction. He wants to have trade with russia because it is a huge country with massive resources of all sorts which he will be hoping to access cheaply by this new association with Putin. By not criticising Putin's actions and not actively supporting opposing forces or voices he is hoping for some deals. That Zelenskyy has rejected the first deal is encouraging, although it did cause trouble for him. He's stayed strong, though, and I am so relieved that many other nations have stood by him, both physically with presence in Kyiv but also in words and actions this week.

It can never be easy to disagree with a character like Trump, especially when he is President of the United States of America but so far several leaders have done so and pointed out his error in insulting Zelenskyy and encouraging russia to expect a deal that would lose Ukraine territory with little in return.

I wrote all the above, intending to publish on the third anniversary of russia's invasion but every day since brought a fresh development. 

First we had the Starmer meeting with Trump which looked good but actually achieved of value little that I could distinguish other than that Britain wasn't being completely side-lined and some of the previous bad-mouthing of Zelenskyy was rolled backed a bit. You have to grimace at the reposnse Trump gave to a question from a reporter about referring to Zelenskyy as a dictator. "Did I say that? I'm sure I didn't!"

Next we had the meeting with Zelenskyy in the White House. I need not write about it as you'll know what happened and I imagine that a huge number of people in America, never mind the rest of the world, were appalled at some of the comments made by Trump and his Vice President. They both lost a great deal of respect, as if they still had much to start with, and I started to realise that this war would have to be tackled without much further help from across the water.

Today we have seen some good developments at long last. We can only hope that they do actually flourish. The events in the White House appear to have shocked many politicians and they've been encouraged to talk today about what they can do.

I have long maintained that it would be some sort of NATO-lite grouping which would be the best way to move forward. Putting troops from across Europe into Ukraine and supporting, with russian money we're holding through sanctions, development of arms and military effectiveness will make it abundantly obvious to Putin that Ukraine is not going to be russian and he will not succeed in getting much further and, indeed, could well find himself forced back. Whether that is to the original borders I can't say. That's unlikely but it may be enough for Zelenskyy to strike a deal.

Russia is likely to be pretty mad should there be European troops on the ground in Ukraine and I can see trouble arising should some be attacked. As these troops may well be going in under their own steam rather than as specific nations or NATO then Article V may not be implemented. It could be messy but World War III doesn't start at that point. 

Whether all this will happen remains to be seen. Certainly the language of support from several countries today is very encouraging and more than makes up for the disappointment and frustration of the idiot Trump and Vance bullying attitude. Whatever the case, surely America will eventually have to side with Europe or whoever goes in to help Ukraine. To stand by and watch would consign Trump to history as a feeble man who talked tough but did nothing.

So what I would like to see happen and which may just be feasible is this:

1. Zelenskyy to sign some sort of deal with America regarding some mineral rights, patching up whatever nonsense went before with some ceremonial handshake to close the book on what went before and retain America's interest in getting some income from Ukraine land and giving Zelensky some way to offer some thanks and repayment for services rendered by the US. I say this because I doubt that European nations can go in and make any peace agreement with russia on their own.

2. The group of 'those willing' as Starmer calls the nations to be involved in helping will specify the extent of their involvement, whether military, advisory or monetary support to show russia that this is a serious development. Before, most countries' contributions tended to be ignored but I think en masse this group may have some greater effect and influence, especially as they are willing to do something to make Ukraine considerably stronger even if they're not about to start fighting on the front line themselves.

3. Ukraine continues to fight and pushes russian troops back or, at the very least, holds positions to the point where russia has to appreciate that it cannot get further. With suitable additional restraints on their economy and, perhaps, some indication from America that they're not as supportive as Putin had assumed, or that Trump is not as malleable as he'd hoped, Putin may have to consider withdrawal at which point he is likely to choose one of two options in a few months' time. One is to drop a nuclear weapon on part of Ukraine. The other is to go to the table and try and get what he can as a starting point.

4. If he drops the bomb then all deals are off and I cannot predict what happens next. My guess is that he realises his country would be demolished in any escalation and doesn't take that step and we'll hope and assume the other option is chosen. Once he's at that table and fighting is stopped then there's an opportunity to pile in as many people as we can all spare and ensure that there is no hope for him in restarting any time soon. He, therefore, gets some face-saving arrangement with some areas of Ukraine remaining under partial control while we work out what people there actually want in a fair way. Much as I would love to see Putin simply defeated and sent back with his tail between his legs and his country fined massive amounts of money for the rebuilding work etc., I don't see that happening at this point.

5. We then have a period when there is an uneasy sort of peace. It'll take some time to negotiate any new border and, indeed, Zelenskyy may refuse to accept any border different from what it was in 2022, maybe even demanding now that the Crimea region is returned too. Provided there is enough support to make it clear that no attempt to take further land in Ukraine will be successful then that peace should last and perhaps Putin will get old and decrepit and be replaced. The replacement, of course, may be no easier to deal with but for that we can only wait and see what happens.

6. Agreements need to be exchanged and set in stone. We let Ukraine down badly on several occasions in the past. We cannot allow that to happen again and we have a duty to establish the new borders, the new responsibilities and help Ukrainians return to a new life in their own country once more. I expect there will be some loss of territory and Trump will have deals with russia for trade and various minerals as well as his interest in Ukraine. Provided that we make very sure Ukraine has a strong military force of their own, as they're not being let in to NATO any time soon, then russia is unlikely to try an invasion again for a long time. We may need to watch some other borders, though, as they will also be able to grow their military capabilities. The cold war will continue as long as Putin, or someone of similar views of Ukraine as a nation, remain in control.

So, before yet another twist happens in this rapidly-changing story, let me share these thoughts and hopes.

Trump, you're not of a sound mind. You're fired!

 Just who is advising Trump at the moment? What is it that has produced this ridiculous and so very wrong series of insults and blame assertions about Zelenskyy and absolutely no adverse comment or remarks about Putin? Who, in their right mind, could possibly maintain, never mind actually believe, that Ukraine started the war in 2022? Who, in their right mind could possibly maintain, never mind actually believe, that it could possibly be reasonable to suggest that Zelenskyy is a dictator and not someone who has more than a tiny support of the Ukraine people? Who in their right mind could possibly maintain, never mind actually believe, that the damage and destruction and loss of lives and terrible injuries that have been the result of three years of aggression have been the responsibility of Zelenskyy?

This is a terrifying moment in the history of this planet. Someone is clearly not in their right mind.

We are familiar with history being invented, altered, deleted by the remnants of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in the form of Russia but we are shocked to discover that powerful leaders in the West appear either to be willing to attempt to do the same or, at the very least, turn a blind eye to wholly incorrect statements from Putin and others.

We are all expecting that Trump will come out with some pretty crazy stuff. In a way, his ability to tell it as it is has been refreshing after the muddling nonsense from Biden and the laughably implausible ideas that we might have had to cope with under Harris. Indeed, the Vice President JD Vance actually made an extremely appropriate and interesting speech a few days ago which highlighted just how bad many aspects of life in the West had become through the lack of any control in allowing wokeism to become rampant and diversity and equality initiatives flourishing left right and centre. Trump's suggestion that USA buy Greenland was amusing but made us all think. His idea of making Canada another of the United States was amusing but didn't make us think other than that that was a bit silly. Behind it all, of course, was the concept that Canada and Greenland represent a huge border protection for North America which Trump would want to be as much under USA's control as possible . . . but against what threat? What is the danger Trump appeared to fear when making these pronouncements? Invasion by communist forces. And the country most likely to be taking that route? Russia. So to hear Trump regard Putin as anything other than the aggressor in Ukraine and to wish to absolve Russia from either blame or, possibly even payment for all the damage is like listening to a completely different person. As I said. Someone not on their right mind.

I really had hoped that we would see some good, strong action imposed by Trump which would demonstrate clearly, not only to Putin's Russia but also to North Korea, Iran and all the other nations who appear to hate the West and promote terrorism in one shape or form against our nations' people, that we are not to be messed with. We will fight back and support any other nation who is troubled. We said a lot of good things in 2022 but actually did little. Eventually some decent weapons and money did reach Ukraine and this has been useful but nothing like enough.

We are to blame, in fact, for the huge loss of life and, to a large extent, the continued war. If we in the UK, in most of Europe and, of course, in the States, as well as the British Commonwealth leaders too had backed our words with real action then Putin would have had to stop. Ukraine on their own pushed the initial Russian advance way back. That was the crucial moment when we should all have weighed in behind them and finished the job. We talked about it but no-one actually did anything. We didn't even give permission for Ukraine soldiers to use some of the weapons we'd provided in a way which would have sent Russia in reverse.

It's Putin's fault that the invasion started. No question - and any sane person who can read and look at contemporary reports of people who were there at the time, including myself, can argue with that.

But it is our fault - and that includes both Trump and Biden and all their advisors - it is our fault that the war continues today. We could have stopped it but we just talked. It was entirely understandable that Putin would take advantage of our lacklustre leadership, our dilatory decision-making, our arguments within our ranks as to this or that and all he had to do was rattle a nuclear weapon or two and have countries like Germany running for cover and even many Brits frightened to make too much noise in support of Ukraine.

We'll give them some money, maybe some weapons, maybe train some troops but don't ask us to put ourselves in danger. And as soon as you say that, Putin knows he's going to win because he can keep threatening and occasionally letting loose some extra weapons to maintain the tension and prevent anyone but the really strong standing up to him.

Throughout all this time Zelenskyy has done his best and controlled the situation as well as I think anyone could have done. I am sure there will have been a lot of funds that went astray and a lot of people who pretended to back him but secretly worked for Putin and colleagues but, despite their best efforts we can see how little they actually have achieved in all this time. The whole population knows full well that the constitution does not allow any elections during wartime. Indeed, one wonders just how practical it could be to run an election when a whole tranche of your people are living abroad and the other actively engaged in trying to maintain the nation's existence! Of course there will be people who might prefer someone else to be in charge but ask any Ukrainian you meet and they'll want either Zelenskyy to remain or be replaced by someone who will fight even harder the threat posed by Putin. The only reason Putin wants to see Zelenskyy have an election is to give him some chance to have elected a president who will agree to Putin's demands. And that would be attempted to be achieved by the well-established practice of dissemination of false information and hacking of electoral registers and voting software, something in which both Russia and North Korea are specialist. An election when administrative controls are already weak and likely management dissipated would be vulnerable to considerable abuse. That's why Ukraine hasn't had one and shouldn't have one until it can be assured of a peaceful period and sufficient control to make the result credible. For now, any observer on the ground there will tell you quite clearly that the one result Putin seeks is not what they'll be voting for.

Many of us have been appalled at how weak our leaders in Europe have been in dealing with Putin. Now, I fear, many of us are appalled how weak our leaders in Europe are going to be when dealing with Trump. This is bad news for our future.

As of 7pm this evening, 19 February 2025, the Prime Minister of my country, has yet to make any objection to Trump's most objectionable statements. I have to say that credit is due to the Conservatives for their immediate reaction but they're lost in opposition at this time. One also wonders just how Farage is going to handle this. So far he has been steadily building a big base of support with his common sense and generally sound comments that hit the right note with the British public. But what now? Will he be the one to stand up and tell his friend across the Pond just how stupid, just how wrong, just how appallingly bad he's being?

I had hoped for much better from Trump. He was one person that I thought would stand up for what is right and, if not end the war, at least show Putin that the West find him and his actions despicable. Instead Trump has shown himself to be despicable and the sooner he is removed from the scene the better for the world. Let him manage USA, by all means, but as far as I am concerned, he's fired.

No deal

 It is just a matter of days now before the third year of war with russia ends and a fourth year of death and injury and destruction starts. I had been expecting some attempt to be made to bring this dreadful business to an end at around this time and had been heartened somewhat by Trump's initial suggestions. To learn now, though, that he has had a long call with Putin and appears to be giving the guy some degree of respectability is difficult to swallow at first.

I am trying to avoid reacting too quickly and I am also not taking too much notice of the many headlines and news that Ukraine is going to be sold down the river and will have to accept some new border. How can it possibly be right that anyone can support russia being able to retain any land as a result of their invasion? It is as if the terrible atrocities committed in the early months in Ukraine's villages and towns, the destruction of the massive dam and flooding of huge areas of the country and the almost total destruction of towns in the south and east have faded from people's memory and all that they now see are two tired armies throwing stones and an occasional missile at each other every week with neither really making much of an advance or impact.

With such a view it is understandable that many people will say it is time for both sides to stop and that doing so will prevent many more deaths and injuries on both sides. That would, of course, be true and certainly a cessation of fighting anyone would be glad to see. But at what price? 

It simply must not be accepted that russia can somehow walk away from this with the present people continuing to be in control of the nation's government. I accept that Russia as a country may eventually be allowed to participate in world trade and affairs again but not the russia as it stands with Putin and other awful people at the helm of what has been such an evil ship. There should be no way that any end to this war can be achieved without a return to at least the 2022 borders as a starting point. All the children taken away to russia from families in Ukraine need to be returned. All the families forcibly removed from Ukraine to strange places in russia or obliged to take up russian citizenship - even though they remained in Ukraine - should be permitted to return home and call Ukraine home again. These are just the very beginnings of what must happen. But I hear nothing of this.

There has to be a clear demonstration that russia's invasion was wrong and actually downright evil in many respects and so abhorrent that international condemnation needs to be made quite obvious. Those nations who somehow consider that it has been quite OK for russia to do all this need to be shown most clearly that they are very much on the wrong side of history.

There may be nothing wrong in Trump having a long conversation with Putin. No-one really knows what was or was not said and you can be absolutely sure that both sides will seek to make us believe that what they did say was most favourable to their particular cause. Trump wants to be seen as the Big Peacemaker and Putin as the Strong Leader who wins battles. So we are hearing things that tend to support each of these images. But neither really make much sense in my opinion. I reckon there's a lot more to come and a lot more we shall not hear about.

I am inclined still to take little notice as I cannot believe that Trump will honestly imagine that Zelensky, never mind people like me and 90% of Ukrainians, will agree to anything that does not restore people and land back to where they started, or pretty close to that. It is reasonable to accept that there will have been many Russians in Ukraine who were not averse to moving to Russia and towns where there may well have been more support for Putin than for Zelensky despite all the atrocities. It is reasonable to exclude returning Crimea to Ukraine at this stage too, pending a proper examination of what area was supposed to have been allocated to whom way back after World War II. Whilst these matters are discussed and properly debated and ultimately resolved, hopefully peacefully by academics and the people rather than politicians, then I have always maintained that the sensible solution is to place disputed areas under some third party control and government.

Allowing, therefore for some peaceful resolution to issues of borders, Putin has to be persuaded that no amount of further fighting, missiles or threats will get him or russia anywhere. He has achieved very little to date other than huge destruction of vast tracts of land and massive loss of life and injury, sadness and frustration. We are told that the russian economy is beginning to break and the idea of making oil prices fall would have a great impact on Putin's ability to fund more weapons and troops. Although they have made minute gains in the last few months they have been at massive cost and of little real significance.

More significant to the outside world, I believe, have been Ukraine's success in hitting many key targets within russia - airports, ammunition holdings, control centres and others we may never hear about. These embarrass Putin on every occasion and in many ways Ukraine has shown that they are prepared for an even longer haul if necessary. North Korea's entry on the battlefield has also been an indication of just how less able that country is than we had all assumed, with the outcome being only that 10,000 less russians were killed or injured as North Koreans took the hit instead to virtually no advantage.

Trump may meet with Putin in the coming weeks but I simply do not see how Zelensky can be told to cease fighting without some very clear indication that russia's actions have been wrong and that, not only will no land be given away but that russia will be obliged to pay for all the repairs and rebuilding of the country it attempted to destroy. Funds currently held that had belonged to russia can be used so it would not even be necessary for Putin to agree. It could just happen and he'll have no choice and hope his people don't hear too much of the detail.

Ukraine will want to be sure that there will be no further attempt to take over the nation by russia. How is that to be secured? Whilst making Ukraine a member of NATO seems beyond agreement at the moment and unlikely even in the next ten years, I can imagine that an agreement by a group of countries to defend Ukraine in the event of attack - essentially a NATO lite arrangement - and one in which UK should surely be part of and one would hope that the US would also support, could be the one thing that Zelensky could achieve in negotiations which would permit him to cease. Even with some loss of territory I believe a deal could be struck.

What has to happen, though, and where it may all fall apart if it doesn't, is for that acknowledgement by the world that what Putin and his government did in 2022 was totally and absolutely wrong on all counts. There were no grounds of any sort for the invasion. No-one was threatening russia. Russia has had no valid claim to own any of Ukraine's territory. Russian troops behaved abominably. Russian controllers in occupied areas have done things which no-one can possibly condone. No agreement which in any way condones, ignores, and certainly not rewards russia can be considered even vaguely feasible. I do fear, though, that there will be those who say there has to be an agreement to save future loss of life. 

My guess is that Ukraine will settle for more loss of life than to allow Putin to walk away from all the chaos he has caused with a reputation the world will see as largely unblemished.

A walk in the park

 I had to go to a different hospital today for a routine check. A 9:24am appointment at Kettering General Hospital was not the most convenient of times to travel but when you get appointments by text which you can't reply to there's not a lot of choice in the matter.

I looked at Google Maps and it said that the journey could take anything between 20 minutes and an hour. I reckoned the hour would be more accurate at that time. I got to Kettering easily enough, although that did require travelling through the wilderness that is now Wellingborough town centre. What a dilapidated state everything seems to be in there. The roads are dreadful but everywhere just looks dirty and shops shut or plastered with adverts and everyone that you do see wandering around looks bedraggled and generally fed up.

Once north of that place, though, things improve and the hospital is on the outskirts of Kettering town so I didn't get to see how good or bad that might be. There appear to be two car parks for the Hospital. One sort of on the grounds and just off the main road but which declares itself to be full. One ponders waiting to see whether someone might emerge and make the sign change to whatever it says when there is a space but with precious little sign of life amongst the cars there I reckoned that may take far too long. I drove on and found myself on a typical trek around a British hospital grounds. Red lines right and left prohibited any thoughts of stopping anywhere on most of the road. Blue 'Assisted Space' places were tempting but I decided to behave, however much I thought I could genuinely claim to needing 'assistance' in finding a place to park if not actually doing the parking itself. I passed them by but was certain that the fine lady getting into a smart Mercedes at one of these blue-lined spaces was not in any way in need of assistance and was tempted once more but continued nevertheless.

Next I came to some places where there were notices on the wall which said something about the space being for relocation or something. I felt quite strongly that I was relocating in many senses and was going to leave the car and hope but decided, once again, to err on the side of bureaucracy and continue looking.

The road ended rather oddly and I had to turn round and go back. One or two hatched sections of road did appeal briefly and I noted them as potential stopping places should life get very difficult and 9:24 more imminent. As it was I had 20 minutes or so left. I came out of the hospital completely and drove across the road to a fairly recently-built housing estate. Right on the entrance road another car was parked and I could see no yellow lines, nor was the place I stopped in anyone's way, blocking any drive or near to any junction. It was a small walk back across the road to the hospital but this seemed a reasonable place for a short while that should upset no-one and seemed legal too.

Then I spotted the sign. £100 caught my eye. It was one of those places where some private organisation has been granted the right to charge people for parking - in other words this was probably an unadopted road on a new estate and not just some random bit of highway. It doesn't need yellow lines, red lines or even 'Assisted Parking' blue lines. If I'm unlucky some bloke on commission will spot me on his daily rounds and slap a fine notice on the windscreen or, worse, a clamp on a wheel. So that was a no-go area after all.

I get back in the car and head back the way I'd come in search of some space somewhere. There were several spots outside people's houses on the other side of the road but these on the grass and probably liable to get me fined by the normal police as the road itself bore double yellow lines. I reckoned I might try to get away with one or two places without blocking a driveway but no opportunity arose to cross the road with traffic piling up behind me and non-stop coming towards me. On I go and then I spot what looks like a big car park on the left.

At the next roundabout there's even a sign for Hospital Car Park A or B so I am hopeful there's a big one here. Turning into this, however, it is clear that the spaces immediately available are for staff and behind barriers and visitors are directed towards an ugly-looking construction on two floors with a barrier entrance at which a couple of cars are waiting with a sign declaring 32 spaces. I pull up behind the waiting cars and eventually they move inwards and I get past the barrier. The signs then loudly declare that only staff can access the upper floor so we visitors are left to negotiate this dimly lit rabbit warren of a construction where goodness only knows those 32 places reside.

A very narrow lane takes you past rows of parked cars. Occasionally there is a space but the size of the space is minute and not something I could imagine getting into without causing considerable delay behind and then, without a sunroof or rear hatch on my BMW Coupé I would be stuck inside anyway. I keep following a vehicle in front in the hope of finding something with a slightly more reasonable degree of accessibility. After some time and considerably delay while someone else attempts to manoeuvre into some possible space I find what I think is worth an attempt. We're talking inches singular here in terms of how close I have to go on one side and I have no idea how the person in the next car will get in their car if they're anything other than sylph-like but I'm in and I can just about squeeze out.

This is an awful place to be with fumes from all the cars trundling around in search of a space really quite objectionable. Indeed, I felt that this exercise was far worse for my health than anything I would normally do in the course of a day, including lying around watching TV and eating chocolate. This was one hospital visit where, without doubt, I would be going away from in rather worse health than I had arrived. More than having to breathe the foul fumes, I was also getting pretty stressed as the time was now not far off the 9:24 when the appointment was due and I still had no idea where to go.

That brings me to the second major problem with Kettering General Hospital. It has signs galore where you can't easily read them or probably don't need them but zero indication of how to find the main entrance, for instance. I do eventually find that but then there are long corridors with signs for this and that but none translated into what I was looking for and which my telephone appointment message described. I asked someone who pointed down one very long corridor and said to turn right and go down at the end. I did that but there was no obvious down until another member of staff dashing from one place to another pointed through a small door which would take me down and, indeed, out into nothing other than a ruddy road with no signs or, for that matter, signs of life either.

I wandered along in a random direction and hoped for some sort of salvation. It was a long time coming but after several turns and guesses I came across a sort of mobile home with a sign matching my appointment description. I was even spot on time too. Except the nurse or whoever was managing the list of expected people did not have my name on it. After some time she realised that I should be in another place. I protested that the message had told me to come here but the 'other place' was just across the road from where we were and also bore a similar name on the outside of the building. There I did finally find myself vaguely wanted and all was well.

A matter of ten minutes later I was out and then began the search for my car. No sign to any Exit, no sign to any Car Park. I tried retracing steps but places look different in reverse and I only managed this with some approximation. It was some 15 minutes later when the car was in sight.

The payment machine - yes, I had to pay for all this awful facility - did work well and my car was recognised at an exit barrier although a sign warning one that you're about to launch into a stream of traffic and not some quiet access route would have been helpful. I am sure there must have been multiple collisions at that point of exit. You can see nothing as you go through the barrier and there is no room to stop on the other side without it crashing down on top of you so the natural inclination is to keep going into the road running horizontally across the exit and kinda hope for the best.

Boy was I glad to get out of there. Driving through Wellingborough town centre wasn't that much more appealing but give me those pot-holed roads and tired shop fronts and miserable inhabitants any day over that ruddy hospital.