Wednesday, February 19

Trump, you're not of a sound mind. You're fired!

 Just who is advising Trump at the moment? What is it that has produced this ridiculous and so very wrong series of insults and blame assertions about Zelenskyy and absolutely no adverse comment or remarks about Putin? Who, in their right mind, could possibly maintain, never mind actually believe, that Ukraine started the war in 2022? Who, in their right mind could possibly maintain, never mind actually believe, that it could possibly be reasonable to suggest that Zelenskyy is a dictator and not someone who has more than a tiny support of the Ukraine people? Who in their right mind could possibly maintain, never mind actually believe, that the damage and destruction and loss of lives and terrible injuries that have been the result of three years of aggression have been the responsibility of Zelenskyy?

This is a terrifying moment in the history of this planet. Someone is clearly not in their right mind.

We are familiar with history being invented, altered, deleted by the remnants of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in the form of Russia but we are shocked to discover that powerful leaders in the West appear either to be willing to attempt to do the same or, at the very least, turn a blind eye to wholly incorrect statements from Putin and others.

We are all expecting that Trump will come out with some pretty crazy stuff. In a way, his ability to tell it as it is has been refreshing after the muddling nonsense from Biden and the laughably implausible ideas that we might have had to cope with under Harris. Indeed, the Vice President JD Vance actually made an extremely appropriate and interesting speech a few days ago which highlighted just how bad many aspects of life in the West had become through the lack of any control in allowing wokeism to become rampant and diversity and equality initiatives flourishing left right and centre. Trump's suggestion that USA buy Greenland was amusing but made us all think. His idea of making Canada another of the United States was amusing but didn't make us think other than that that was a bit silly. Behind it all, of course, was the concept that Canada and Greenland represent a huge border protection for North America which Trump would want to be as much under USA's control as possible . . . but against what threat? What is the danger Trump appeared to fear when making these pronouncements? Invasion by communist forces. And the country most likely to be taking that route? Russia. So to hear Trump regard Putin as anything other than the aggressor in Ukraine and to wish to absolve Russia from either blame or, possibly even payment for all the damage is like listening to a completely different person. As I said. Someone not on their right mind.

I really had hoped that we would see some good, strong action imposed by Trump which would demonstrate clearly, not only to Putin's Russia but also to North Korea, Iran and all the other nations who appear to hate the West and promote terrorism in one shape or form against our nations' people, that we are not to be messed with. We will fight back and support any other nation who is troubled. We said a lot of good things in 2022 but actually did little. Eventually some decent weapons and money did reach Ukraine and this has been useful but nothing like enough.

We are to blame, in fact, for the huge loss of life and, to a large extent, the continued war. If we in the UK, in most of Europe and, of course, in the States, as well as the British Commonwealth leaders too had backed our words with real action then Putin would have had to stop. Ukraine on their own pushed the initial Russian advance way back. That was the crucial moment when we should all have weighed in behind them and finished the job. We talked about it but no-one actually did anything. We didn't even give permission for Ukraine soldiers to use some of the weapons we'd provided in a way which would have sent Russia in reverse.

It's Putin's fault that the invasion started. No question - and any sane person who can read and look at contemporary reports of people who were there at the time, including myself, can argue with that.

But it is our fault - and that includes both Trump and Biden and all their advisors - it is our fault that the war continues today. We could have stopped it but we just talked. It was entirely understandable that Putin would take advantage of our lacklustre leadership, our dilatory decision-making, our arguments within our ranks as to this or that and all he had to do was rattle a nuclear weapon or two and have countries like Germany running for cover and even many Brits frightened to make too much noise in support of Ukraine.

We'll give them some money, maybe some weapons, maybe train some troops but don't ask us to put ourselves in danger. And as soon as you say that, Putin knows he's going to win because he can keep threatening and occasionally letting loose some extra weapons to maintain the tension and prevent anyone but the really strong standing up to him.

Throughout all this time Zelenskyy has done his best and controlled the situation as well as I think anyone could have done. I am sure there will have been a lot of funds that went astray and a lot of people who pretended to back him but secretly worked for Putin and colleagues but, despite their best efforts we can see how little they actually have achieved in all this time. The whole population knows full well that the constitution does not allow any elections during wartime. Indeed, one wonders just how practical it could be to run an election when a whole tranche of your people are living abroad and the other actively engaged in trying to maintain the nation's existence! Of course there will be people who might prefer someone else to be in charge but ask any Ukrainian you meet and they'll want either Zelenskyy to remain or be replaced by someone who will fight even harder the threat posed by Putin. The only reason Putin wants to see Zelenskyy have an election is to give him some chance to have elected a president who will agree to Putin's demands. And that would be attempted to be achieved by the well-established practice of dissemination of false information and hacking of electoral registers and voting software, something in which both Russia and North Korea are specialist. An election when administrative controls are already weak and likely management dissipated would be vulnerable to considerable abuse. That's why Ukraine hasn't had one and shouldn't have one until it can be assured of a peaceful period and sufficient control to make the result credible. For now, any observer on the ground there will tell you quite clearly that the one result Putin seeks is not what they'll be voting for.

Many of us have been appalled at how weak our leaders in Europe have been in dealing with Putin. Now, I fear, many of us are appalled how weak our leaders in Europe are going to be when dealing with Trump. This is bad news for our future.

As of 7pm this evening, 19 February 2025, the Prime Minister of my country, has yet to make any objection to Trump's most objectionable statements. I have to say that credit is due to the Conservatives for their immediate reaction but they're lost in opposition at this time. One also wonders just how Farage is going to handle this. So far he has been steadily building a big base of support with his common sense and generally sound comments that hit the right note with the British public. But what now? Will he be the one to stand up and tell his friend across the Pond just how stupid, just how wrong, just how appallingly bad he's being?

I had hoped for much better from Trump. He was one person that I thought would stand up for what is right and, if not end the war, at least show Putin that the West find him and his actions despicable. Instead Trump has shown himself to be despicable and the sooner he is removed from the scene the better for the world. Let him manage USA, by all means, but as far as I am concerned, he's fired.


Thursday, February 13

No deal

 It is just a matter of days now before the third year of war with russia ends and a fourth year of death and injury and destruction starts. I had been expecting some attempt to be made to bring this dreadful business to an end at around this time and had been heartened somewhat by Trump's initial suggestions. To learn now, though, that he has had a long call with Putin and appears to be giving the guy some degree of respectability is difficult to swallow at first.

I am trying to avoid reacting too quickly and I am also not taking too much notice of the many headlines and news that Ukraine is going to be sold down the river and will have to accept some new border. How can it possibly be right that anyone can support russia being able to retain any land as a result of their invasion? It is as if the terrible atrocities committed in the early months in Ukraine's villages and towns, the destruction of the massive dam and flooding of huge areas of the country and the almost total destruction of towns in the south and east have faded from people's memory and all that they now see are two tired armies throwing stones and an occasional missile at each other every week with neither really making much of an advance or impact.

With such a view it is understandable that many people will say it is time for both sides to stop and that doing so will prevent many more deaths and injuries on both sides. That would, of course, be true and certainly a cessation of fighting anyone would be glad to see. But at what price? 

It simply must not be accepted that russia can somehow walk away from this with the present people continuing to be in control of the nation's government. I accept that Russia as a country may eventually be allowed to participate in world trade and affairs again but not the russia as it stands with Putin and other awful people at the helm of what has been such an evil ship. There should be no way that any end to this war can be achieved without a return to at least the 2022 borders as a starting point. All the children taken away to russia from families in Ukraine need to be returned. All the families forcibly removed from Ukraine to strange places in russia or obliged to take up russian citizenship - even though they remained in Ukraine - should be permitted to return home and call Ukraine home again. These are just the very beginnings of what must happen. But I hear nothing of this.

There has to be a clear demonstration that russia's invasion was wrong and actually downright evil in many respects and so abhorrent that international condemnation needs to be made quite obvious. Those nations who somehow consider that it has been quite OK for russia to do all this need to be shown most clearly that they are very much on the wrong side of history.

There may be nothing wrong in Trump having a long conversation with Putin. No-one really knows what was or was not said and you can be absolutely sure that both sides will seek to make us believe that what they did say was most favourable to their particular cause. Trump wants to be seen as the Big Peacemaker and Putin as the Strong Leader who wins battles. So we are hearing things that tend to support each of these images. But neither really make much sense in my opinion. I reckon there's a lot more to come and a lot more we shall not hear about.

I am inclined still to take little notice as I cannot believe that Trump will honestly imagine that Zelensky, never mind people like me and 90% of Ukrainians, will agree to anything that does not restore people and land back to where they started, or pretty close to that. It is reasonable to accept that there will have been many Russians in Ukraine who were not averse to moving to Russia and towns where there may well have been more support for Putin than for Zelensky despite all the atrocities. It is reasonable to exclude returning Crimea to Ukraine at this stage too, pending a proper examination of what area was supposed to have been allocated to whom way back after World War II. Whilst these matters are discussed and properly debated and ultimately resolved, hopefully peacefully by academics and the people rather than politicians, then I have always maintained that the sensible solution is to place disputed areas under some third party control and government.

Allowing, therefore for some peaceful resolution to issues of borders, Putin has to be persuaded that no amount of further fighting, missiles or threats will get him or russia anywhere. He has achieved very little to date other than huge destruction of vast tracts of land and massive loss of life and injury, sadness and frustration. We are told that the russian economy is beginning to break and the idea of making oil prices fall would have a great impact on Putin's ability to fund more weapons and troops. Although they have made minute gains in the last few months they have been at massive cost and of little real significance.

More significant to the outside world, I believe, have been Ukraine's success in hitting many key targets within russia - airports, ammunition holdings, control centres and others we may never hear about. These embarrass Putin on every occasion and in many ways Ukraine has shown that they are prepared for an even longer haul if necessary. North Korea's entry on the battlefield has also been an indication of just how less able that country is than we had all assumed, with the outcome being only that 10,000 less russians were killed or injured as North Koreans took the hit instead to virtually no advantage.

Trump may meet with Putin in the coming weeks but I simply do not see how Zelensky can be told to cease fighting without some very clear indication that russia's actions have been wrong and that, not only will no land be given away but that russia will be obliged to pay for all the repairs and rebuilding of the country it attempted to destroy. Funds currently held that had belonged to russia can be used so it would not even be necessary for Putin to agree. It could just happen and he'll have no choice and hope his people don't hear too much of the detail.

Ukraine will want to be sure that there will be no further attempt to take over the nation by russia. How is that to be secured? Whilst making Ukraine a member of NATO seems beyond agreement at the moment and unlikely even in the next ten years, I can imagine that an agreement by a group of countries to defend Ukraine in the event of attack - essentially a NATO lite arrangement - and one in which UK should surely be part of and one would hope that the US would also support, could be the one thing that Zelensky could achieve in negotiations which would permit him to cease. Even with some loss of territory I believe a deal could be struck.

What has to happen, though, and where it may all fall apart if it doesn't, is for that acknowledgement by the world that what Putin and his government did in 2022 was totally and absolutely wrong on all counts. There were no grounds of any sort for the invasion. No-one was threatening russia. Russia has had no valid claim to own any of Ukraine's territory. Russian troops behaved abominably. Russian controllers in occupied areas have done things which no-one can possibly condone. No agreement which in any way condones, ignores, and certainly not rewards russia can be considered even vaguely feasible. I do fear, though, that there will be those who say there has to be an agreement to save future loss of life. 

My guess is that Ukraine will settle for more loss of life than to allow Putin to walk away from all the chaos he has caused with a reputation the world will see as largely unblemished.

Wednesday, February 5

A walk in the park

 I had to go to a different hospital today for a routine check. A 9:24am appointment at Kettering General Hospital was not the most convenient of times to travel but when you get appointments by text which you can't reply to there's not a lot of choice in the matter.

I looked at Google Maps and it said that the journey could take anything between 20 minutes and an hour. I reckoned the hour would be more accurate at that time. I got to Kettering easily enough, although that did require travelling through the wilderness that is now Wellingborough town centre. What a dilapidated state everything seems to be in there. The roads are dreadful but everywhere just looks dirty and shops shut or plastered with adverts and everyone that you do see wandering around looks bedraggled and generally fed up.

Once north of that place, though, things improve and the hospital is on the outskirts of Kettering town so I didn't get to see how good or bad that might be. There appear to be two car parks for the Hospital. One sort of on the grounds and just off the main road but which declares itself to be full. One ponders waiting to see whether someone might emerge and make the sign change to whatever it says when there is a space but with precious little sign of life amongst the cars there I reckoned that may take far too long. I drove on and found myself on a typical trek around a British hospital grounds. Red lines right and left prohibited any thoughts of stopping anywhere on most of the road. Blue 'Assisted Space' places were tempting but I decided to behave, however much I thought I could genuinely claim to needing 'assistance' in finding a place to park if not actually doing the parking itself. I passed them by but was certain that the fine lady getting into a smart Mercedes at one of these blue-lined spaces was not in any way in need of assistance and was tempted once more but continued nevertheless.

Next I came to some places where there were notices on the wall which said something about the space being for relocation or something. I felt quite strongly that I was relocating in many senses and was going to leave the car and hope but decided, once again, to err on the side of bureaucracy and continue looking.

The road ended rather oddly and I had to turn round and go back. One or two hatched sections of road did appeal briefly and I noted them as potential stopping places should life get very difficult and 9:24 more imminent. As it was I had 20 minutes or so left. I came out of the hospital completely and drove across the road to a fairly recently-built housing estate. Right on the entrance road another car was parked and I could see no yellow lines, nor was the place I stopped in anyone's way, blocking any drive or near to any junction. It was a small walk back across the road to the hospital but this seemed a reasonable place for a short while that should upset no-one and seemed legal too.

Then I spotted the sign. £100 caught my eye. It was one of those places where some private organisation has been granted the right to charge people for parking - in other words this was probably an unadopted road on a new estate and not just some random bit of highway. It doesn't need yellow lines, red lines or even 'Assisted Parking' blue lines. If I'm unlucky some bloke on commission will spot me on his daily rounds and slap a fine notice on the windscreen or, worse, a clamp on a wheel. So that was a no-go area after all.

I get back in the car and head back the way I'd come in search of some space somewhere. There were several spots outside people's houses on the other side of the road but these on the grass and probably liable to get me fined by the normal police as the road itself bore double yellow lines. I reckoned I might try to get away with one or two places without blocking a driveway but no opportunity arose to cross the road with traffic piling up behind me and non-stop coming towards me. On I go and then I spot what looks like a big car park on the left.

At the next roundabout there's even a sign for Hospital Car Park A or B so I am hopeful there's a big one here. Turning into this, however, it is clear that the spaces immediately available are for staff and behind barriers and visitors are directed towards an ugly-looking construction on two floors with a barrier entrance at which a couple of cars are waiting with a sign declaring 32 spaces. I pull up behind the waiting cars and eventually they move inwards and I get past the barrier. The signs then loudly declare that only staff can access the upper floor so we visitors are left to negotiate this dimly lit rabbit warren of a construction where goodness only knows those 32 places reside.

A very narrow lane takes you past rows of parked cars. Occasionally there is a space but the size of the space is minute and not something I could imagine getting into without causing considerable delay behind and then, without a sunroof or rear hatch on my BMW Coupé I would be stuck inside anyway. I keep following a vehicle in front in the hope of finding something with a slightly more reasonable degree of accessibility. After some time and considerably delay while someone else attempts to manoeuvre into some possible space I find what I think is worth an attempt. We're talking inches singular here in terms of how close I have to go on one side and I have no idea how the person in the next car will get in their car if they're anything other than sylph-like but I'm in and I can just about squeeze out.

This is an awful place to be with fumes from all the cars trundling around in search of a space really quite objectionable. Indeed, I felt that this exercise was far worse for my health than anything I would normally do in the course of a day, including lying around watching TV and eating chocolate. This was one hospital visit where, without doubt, I would be going away from in rather worse health than I had arrived. More than having to breathe the foul fumes, I was also getting pretty stressed as the time was now not far off the 9:24 when the appointment was due and I still had no idea where to go.

That brings me to the second major problem with Kettering General Hospital. It has signs galore where you can't easily read them or probably don't need them but zero indication of how to find the main entrance, for instance. I do eventually find that but then there are long corridors with signs for this and that but none translated into what I was looking for and which my telephone appointment message described. I asked someone who pointed down one very long corridor and said to turn right and go down at the end. I did that but there was no obvious down until another member of staff dashing from one place to another pointed through a small door which would take me down and, indeed, out into nothing other than a ruddy road with no signs or, for that matter, signs of life either.

I wandered along in a random direction and hoped for some sort of salvation. It was a long time coming but after several turns and guesses I came across a sort of mobile home with a sign matching my appointment description. I was even spot on time too. Except the nurse or whoever was managing the list of expected people did not have my name on it. After some time she realised that I should be in another place. I protested that the message had told me to come here but the 'other place' was just across the road from where we were and also bore a similar name on the outside of the building. There I did finally find myself vaguely wanted and all was well.

A matter of ten minutes later I was out and then began the search for my car. No sign to any Exit, no sign to any Car Park. I tried retracing steps but places look different in reverse and I only managed this with some approximation. It was some 15 minutes later when the car was in sight.

The payment machine - yes, I had to pay for all this awful facility - did work well and my car was recognised at an exit barrier although a sign warning one that you're about to launch into a stream of traffic and not some quiet access route would have been helpful. I am sure there must have been multiple collisions at that point of exit. You can see nothing as you go through the barrier and there is no room to stop on the other side without it crashing down on top of you so the natural inclination is to keep going into the road running horizontally across the exit and kinda hope for the best.

Boy was I glad to get out of there. Driving through Wellingborough town centre wasn't that much more appealing but give me those pot-holed roads and tired shop fronts and miserable inhabitants any day over that ruddy hospital.


Saturday, November 23

What are they thinking?

 It’s over 1000 days since russia invaded Ukraine and, with the third anniversary rapidly approaching with no end to the deaths and destruction in sight, I sit here and wonder just what the hell is in the minds of those who are the key players in all this.


It is just a handful of people who can bring this to a conclusion. Putin, of course, either has to decide or be persuaded to cease the attacks. He is not going to decide just like that, waking up one morning and concluding that he’d done enough and might as well bring the troops home. So he’ll need to be persuaded. And the only way persuasion will be effective would be if he were about to lose something. People aren’t important to him so it would be land or the ability to defend russia effectively.


Ukraine has a chunk of land in Kursk which they’re just about hanging on to but I doubt they’ll manage for much longer. So there’s not much in the land department that Ukraine can take. That leaves defence facilities, buildings where systems are installed and where they’re managed, which may well be different in these days of remote control and the weapons installations and storage buildings themselves. Someone will know where every one of these is and will have shared this information by some means or another and one would hope that the co-ordinates are already specified in suitable target summaries within NATO.


I think that every one of these needs to be hit very soon. Not in an obvious way. One important miss and there would be the certainty of russia identifying the source of whatever missiles hit and some remaining silo or storage facility would fire back and all hell would be let loose. The hits need to be carried out by means that are not so obviously identified and using Russians to do the job would make response tricky to manage. There must be thousands of people in russia who are totally fed up with what’s been going on, even if they only see one side on Russia Today or whatever program they’re permitted to watch these days. These people can surely not want to take control of Ukraine, have no desire to rape and torture and kill innocent families just across the border and they certainly have no desire to be citizens of the first nation to fire a nuclear weapon in anger. My guess is that a good number could be persuaded to assist in the task of switching off vital links to services and cancelling response abilities in return for some impressive financial and other rewards from a grateful world later.


I suspect that it is not necessary in every instance to blow up some place but rather incapacitate it. 


That’s what’s in my mind but I doubt that’s in anyone else’s. We’re looking at the moment to Biden and team in the USA and a few decision-makers in NATO countries and the organisation itself. I don’t see Biden doing anything more, nor the vast majority of NATO countries. They had the chance to do something useful 1000 days ago and did nothing. They have not even honoured commitments to Ukraine made in clear language in previous years when Ukraine agreed to give up the nuclear weapons stored in the country and again after russia seized control of Crimea. It makes me sad that my own country has not kept its word and how we have all run scared ever since January 2022 and that fright has taken root in so many of our population too.


So what is in the mind of many of our decision-makers is fear. Quite simply they’re frightened to do anything other than hope that someone else will do something instead. 

The move that is in everyone’s minds but which no-one dares talk about is the one we should have made, in unison across NATO, at the very start: send in masses of troops and sufficient weapons and material to show russia that they have no chance of making any worthwhile progress in Ukraine.


It may well not even have been necessary to attack any russian troops or positions, merely demonstrate that the whole of NATO and the USA and best part of the British Commonwealth was going to stand firm. No way would russia have attacked any of the NATO troops as they know only too well that their country would be annihilated. Yes, some places and maybe many thousands of people in the ‘West’ might also suffer terrible loss in such an exchange but russia would die for certain before more harm was done and that would be the end of that.


I wonder too how the good Russian people, and there are plenty of them, feel about their countries relationship with North Korea? I am pretty sure that if someone asked them to vote as to which nation they would like to have as a special chum for the future not one would have ticked the North Korea box! But there we have it now. Many thousands of North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine in the name of the Russian Federation. Not only that but there is now the madness of russia donating technology to North Korea to help them defend themselves. Now we all know just how unpredictable the leaders of North Korea are. They have about as much knowledge of the planet and other nations as the snails in my garden. Read any material published by them and it makes little or no sense, just massive propaganda or constant moaning about their South Korea neighbour. Of all the countries in the world, russia chooses to support North Korea? I used to argue with people who tell me that Putin is mad but I do have to wonder sometimes just how he can justify this. Imagine him waking up one morning and chatting with his generals about the war.


“Oh, I’ve just done a deal with Kim Jong Il.He’ll give us some troops and in return we’re going to help him defend his country.”


“So if Kim tells you he’s being attacked by South Korea you’ll fight South Korea?”


“Er . . .”


“‘Cos you know Kim is always telling people he’s being attacked by someone, usually South Korea. The bloke’s mad, you do realise? You’re getting into bed with a crazy twerp who is in charge of probably the most introvert nation on the planet and the last place anyone else on the planet wants to live. You can’t even tour the place without being guided by someone and the vast majority of the population are living hand to mouth with little by way of possessions.”


“I’m not getting into bed with Kim . . .”


“But you’ll still get screwed!”


I am struggling to make sense of how we have arrived at this debacle of a world position. I started wondering what was in the minds of those who might feasibly do something to sort this out. I have to conclude thinking that the only people who can end this are the good Russians themselves. They need to be brave enough to speak out in the communities and question what is really happening. I don’t mean mass demonstrations but subtle infiltration of committees where decisions are taken and maybe there will be some who can change the stance of people close to Putin and rescue their nation from this madness.


If they don’t then I predict that russia will never be forgiven for the atrocities and breaking international law and rules for decent treatment of one’s fellow man. They’ll have one ally in North Korea and will find themselves dragged into some conflict with yet another country before long as a result, becoming more and more absent from meaningful world activity and trade, their people less respected or trusted. Despite the considerable mass of the Russian Federation, it will have as much influence on the world as North Korea has on a good day, which is zero.


Some deal will be struck in due course by men too frightened to stand up for what is right. And while Ukraine families mourn their loss and the West helps rebuild what russia destroyed, russia and russians will fade from view to the vast majority of people in the rest of the world. It is sad because there are some good Russians. 


After the last war, the phrase everyone remembers is: We shall not forget. 


And yet we will.



Tuesday, July 30

Time line thoughts

 I came across a time-line document I had made some years ago and thought I should take the opportunity to bring it up to date. My book Somewhere In Switzerland ended in March 1985 and it is also probably about time I wrote the second part, for which that time-line would be useful.

It is remarkable how much has happened in the last few years and yet how easily I have been able to forget which years things started in. COVID, for example, and the russian invasion. Surely I would remember when they started? I suppose I would have eventually figured it out but I have had to look at my posts here to be sure!

Yes, of course, COVID-19 hit us in early 2020, my first post in March 2020 being about how the postman would throw my parcels at me and scamper away whereas he would have stood on the doorstep chatting for ages a week or so before.

russia invaded Ukraine in January 2022. I used to write every few months, deploring the lack of assistance being provided or, where it was promised, the lack of delivery and generally how useless we have all been.

COVID-19 appears to have gone, although there is talk of yet another strain of the virus doing the rounds in a big way at the moment. I know quite a lot of people have had colds recently. But they are just that. Colds. No-one is really talking about COVID anything like as much - but still, interestingly, using the same old testing devices and donning masks as soon as they test positive. I really don't believe that there is much to fear now. We've survived and a lot of people now seem to appreciate just how wrong lockdown and all the closures and the compulsory mask-wearing and so on really were. I cannot blame the government of the day. They were caught very much with their pants down, some almost quite literally, and there had been no realistic plan in place for such a thing. People made things up as they went along and very sensible-sounding scientists came to very sensible-sounding conclusions at the time which we only now realise were mostly bonkers. But never mind. It was a crazy time and caused a lot of trouble and inconvenience but we survived. Those who didn't may well not have had that many years left on this planet anyway.

The russians, however, have not gone. After a period when Ukraine seemed to be gaining the upper hand we are back at a stage where russian troops are advancing in some areas but being held back in others. An estimate by a BBC UK and an independent russian source study suggests that russia is losing over 1000 people every month and 70,000 people have been killed or injured in the last six months alone. Yet still they come, with vast numbers of men being sent from all over russia to fight. It is the pure weight of numbers that has enabled russia to make progress but at what a price. One does have to wonder how long it can be before there are serious protests by mothers who are losing so many of their sons. Or are they mostly from villages where there is little chance of communication and even less chance that anyone would dare speak up anyway?

My concern is the new involvement of North Korean troops in the war, many now being seen on Ukraine territory, although so far largely only in construction work in towns which russia has taken over. North Korea has a huge army and I get the impression that, whilst not experienced in combat, they would simply do whatever their masters tell them.

Using the word masters here reminds me of all the woke nonsense that we have to put up with - people telling us British how bad we are for all sorts of slave trading some centuries ago. Why can these people not be as vocal about what is essentially thousands of slaves being sent to their likely death or certainly of illness or injury by their russian or North Korean masters? It is extraordinary that there are people demonstrating on our streets (and even more violently in other countries) about a whole range of past issues as well as the fate of Hamas supporters in Gaza but who seem totally unable to express any sympathy, never mind support, for the people of Ukraine.

If only all these loud demonstrators and political movers and shakers would get their act together on something which is happening today, pretty much here and now, or at least not very far away, where some nasty people are destroying innocent people's homes and lives. Children have been taken away from families and just disappeared in russia somewhere. How the hell can that be allowed to continue without some real protest by people who are good at protesting about oil or what is or is not happening to the planet.

Let me tell you now that what is happening in Ukraine is causing far greater damage to our planet than anything oil executives are doing or that some government minister is not doing. Some idiot minister can cancel the issue of new oil or gas drilling licences in the North Sea at the drop of a hat but ask anyone in the government to do anything of any real significance to deter russia or anyone else destroying life and limb in Ukraine and they'll just mumble about looking into it or make a speech and shake someone's hand but actually do bugger all.

Time and time again it has been made very clear that this war could have been ended had every country that found russia's action offensive and wrong made their views perfectly clear by providing support for the Ukraine army, on the ground, in the air, over cyberspace and at every international meeting where there was an opportunity to demonstrate, yes, demonstrate that support in whatever way they felt would get the message across to Putin and his team. "Get out now or we will force you out. There are plenty of us. We're well-equipped and willing to stand and defend the innocent."

Instead, we have all shuffled around on the outskirts and mumbled how bad it is and how 'someone ought to do something'. We should be shouting that someone needs to do something. That someone is our Prime Minister who should instruct our forces to go and do what's right. The last one should have done that as should the two before him. President Biden talks a good talk when he gets the words the right way round but, again, nothing actually happens. Everyone simply hopes, if they were to tell the truth, that the problem will just go away. That Putin will stop at some point and try to settle for what he has gained and just you try arguing against 'peace' at that point! Anyone objecting will be all too quickly placed on the pedestal of bad people wanting to prolong war, the loss of more lives and so forth. 

Even those politicians who have managed to send some actual planes or material to Ukraine have tied the hands of the Ukraine commanders and their troops over there by restricting what they can do with them. This is sheer madness. If russia knows that they are not going to be hit by a missile by staying a few miles inside the border, on their own territory, and firing off all kinds of nasty stuff from there then they will do so. If they thought that they might get pulverised by a few NATO missiles falling out of the sky then they'd think twice, move away and some hospital, train or electricity station might now be intact and children not buried under rubble.

There must be a hundred scenarios whereby russia can be appropriately restricted and pinned back in key areas if only other countries would add their men and weapons and intelligence to the battle. It could even be difficult to identify which country was supporting in this way and so impossible for russia to justify launching anything offensive at a NATO country which it would, in any event, do at its peril as that would most certainly bring a hail of metal down upon towns and key installations in russia.

"Oh, but what if they fire a nuclear missile at us?" you ask. 

"If they do, it gets intercepted and, at the same time a lot more get sent their way from every NATO base that has one ready. Whilst, yes, one or two towns can be demolished and a great many lives lost, the whole of russia will be devastated. They lose. They know that. So they won't fire first anything of much significance."

It's one of those questions that annoying women ask at meetings - like "So you don't mind innocent people getting killed?" How can you answer that? "No. I am perfectly happy to see people dying." or "No, you're quite right, we shouldn't risk any more loss of life". Clearly the latter is the more reasonable, more human-sounding. But the clever question misses the point. By not fighting the bully, the bully wins. Every time. Is that what she wants? Russia to take over Ukraine? Keep the kids they stole? Not acknowledge or be punished in any way for the atrocities at so many cities, towns and villages? So we have to say "Yes, I am prepared to see innocent people killed if it means that there is a chance of the bully being stopped and more killings avoided. It is not a pleasant concept. It is risky. But if Russia does not believe that we will cause considerable damage if they do not cease then they will not cease. " It really is as simple as that. There will be more loss of life and there is nothing we can do about that. Let us just try to ensure that there are no more Ukrainian lives or livelihoods or land or schools or hospitals or crops or power stations lost.

Now, back to that timeline:

August 2024. Trip to Ukraine . . .


My advice to the Conservative Party

Members have been asked to tell the new Chairman exactly what they think. So I did.

I have been a member since 1969, although that would have been the Young Conservatives at the start and I may have missed a few years along the way. Nevertheless, it was only at this election that I first considered voting for another party.

I didn't but I seriously considered Reform and, oddly, the old SDP seemed to have some sensible policies and Rod Liddle talks and writes a great deal of sense. He might have got my vote had he been in my constituency.

My loss of confidence in the Conservative Party arose from several sources:

1. Poor management of the behaviour of MPs.

We all know that people make mistakes and sometimes are downright stupid but (a) the public doesn't need to know about it and (b) if they do, action has to be prompt and decisive. There was a succession of naughty boys who really should have been spotted as liabilities at a considerably earlier stage when someone could have had a good, old-fashioned 'word' with them. There were also a lot of arguments - 'blue on blue' becoming a phrase we could do without hearing. Boris was really popular and most of the supporters were prepared to accept that he could be a bit bizarre at times but he stood up for things they liked someone to stand up for. He was brought down by some very clever work by a combination of people in the party who didn't care for him much and some darker opposition-friendly forces in the background who saw an opportunity to ruin the Party's chances at a future election. There simply was no-one of sufficient popularity or standing willing to take over and there really should have been far more control at the top, closing ranks behind Boris, at least for a while, and a realisation of what image needed to be maintained for the outside world. Mistakes were made in Lockdown etc. and Hancock was plain stupid not to realise that there might be cameras here and there. Cummings seemed to dislike Boris intensely and, brainy as he might be, he caused more damage to the Party's image than a lot of the stupid people did. When we needed really smart management of the image there was no-one.

2. Lack of action on woke stuff

I really could not believe what was happening to Great Britain in this respect. We watched statues being dumped or disrespected, ridiculous demonstrations by very minority minorities getting massive publicity and attention, police with rainbow armbands and NHS with rainbow crossing marks outside. I have no complaint about Pride or, for that matter, any minority organisation having a voice but we were being told that Mr Normal White Guy was some kind of evil bloke who destroyed the lives of savages in Africa or wherever and no-one ever seemed to counter any of this for years. Companies paid training firms of dubious certification large fees to lecture their staff on how they were apparently racist and wrong about almost everything and everyone suddenly started putting weird pronouns on email signatures. If anyone was honest enough to say out loud what they thought of all this they were disciplined and heaven help anyone who was a teacher or similar. They just got suspended or sacked.
All this gave rise to the Free Speech Union and week by week those of us who joined for some sort of protection were provided with daily tales of woe. Again all very very smart stuff by some dark forces who operated under the radar and were able to use poor legislative drafting to further their case almost unnoticed for a long time. Then it was too late and we had everyone taking the knee, Black Lives Matter people got rich very quickly and the Conservative Party were the baddies. How the hell did no-one see any of this coming? And when it did we still did very, very little.

3. Scotland's bloody marvellous, Wales is cool, don't mention Ireland and England's awful.

The SNP have now been shown to be a complete nightmare of a group but somehow they managed to control everything that happened anywhere in Scotland. Almost every bit of news about Scotland was how much better it was there than in Tory England. Nicola Sturgeon outmanoeuvred Boris on COVID by waiting to see what he'd planned and doing the same thing a little earlier if it was likely to be seen as strong, or delaying it and blaming having to follow Boris if it was weak. Rubbish policies but brilliant politics. Each week Scotland seemed to be tearing further away from the rest of Britain and we were allowing that to happen, with massive funding going across the border too when it might have been better utilised stopping in Northumberland.

Wales had a Labour 'government' that was making the biggest blunders imaginable but did we manage to make anyone aware of this? No. Not in the slightest. We even let them have a 20mph National Speed Limit for a while which any reasonable motorist would be horrified by. The whole Green ECO whatever Climate Change stuff has never been something that the Conservative supporters have been much bothered about. The vast majority of normal Conservatives take the view that the world is not about to end, that our children and our children's children will still be around to listen to our Children's Children's Children by the Moody Blues and there'll be electricity at a reasonable price to run the old record player too.

We like recycling but not cycling and especially not the Highway Code changes which reduced the motorist to some huge liability on the road that had to give priority to whatever other forms of life wished to cross the road. That wasn't just Wales but all over the land. Motorists were bad. They were already paying a fortune for fuel and now they're told their cars are rubbish and they'll not be able to buy a new one in a few years unless it's an electric one. We really do not want to hear this. It is not what Conservatives do. Leave us alone.

Northern Ireland was never going to be easy but we didn't exactly endear ourselves to whoever voted for us there either. We let EU negotiators get away with too much, though, and they all sounded so reasonable. Once again, our message was completely lost or meaningless to the voting public and they largely gave up on the whole thing. To be honest no-one knew or knows what to do about that but we were in charge and didn't handle things well. If one part of a lump of soil is in the EU and another is not then there will, by definition, be a border between the two. Different rules apply on each side. That's life. So some additional controls would be necessary to cut down illegal shipping of stuff or people one way or the other. That's life and nothing to do with The Troubles which someone will always bring up. Incidentally, we also allowed military personnel to be prosecuted for whatever did or did not happen in the 70s and that was not a Conservative Party's best moment either. We seemed to be frightened stiff still of the Nationalists there.

Basically all this made us English people feel pretty useless and pathetic. We were good at nothing, it seemed, and only we had voted for the Conservative Party so we had ourselves to blame. No effort that I recall was made to counter this crazed hatred of the English. As I said, some very effective forces operated behind and under the scenes to change the way we appeared and sounded and Angela 's 'Tory Scum' comment sort of capped it all nicely for the people operating the whole anti-Boris-Conservative show.

4. Poor quality MPs

As someone who was considered as a Prospective Parliamentary Candidate (way back in 1974) I like to think that Conservative MPs have one or more features: intelligence, panache, charm, nouse, passion, hard-working, dedicated. Ideally they'll have at least some star quality and be able to hold people's attention in a speech. They may be nerds or geeks, however, but still of big brain and valuable, for whom we need to supply a sort of care package to ensure they're not embarrassing when let loose.

My view is that most of the members I have witnessed on TV or Radio have not been very impressive. They do need to have talents of some sort and, if they are devoid but simply were the best on offer in a particular constituency then they need to be guided and cared for. I am not saying we should clamp down on their free speech but they do need to be very careful about what they say, write or type and someone needs to assess how they come across to the Joe Public that'll need to support them at the next election.

Of course, there are some really good people in the Party but we need to manage better who gets to advertise who we are and what we stand for.

I do hope to vote Conservative again but I do need to feel confident that the next leader will be a Prime Minister of whom I can feel proud and who has a team that is behind him or her for the long term and that they can appreciate what voters really want and distinguish between policies that work and can be beneficial and those that are merely following some ancient ritual or practice and just expected to happen.

Be quite radical, even, in some respects, like building an argument that shows both sides of the Climate Change argument. Challenge whether electric cars really are the solution? Restore our past achievements as Great Britain and explain, explain, explain just how wrong so many of the things now been taught or suggested really are. Counter all the demos that are against British values with better demos that support and explain them. Get more Conservatives as teachers. That's very important as much of what has gone wrong has come from actively left-wing teachers, lecturers, middle managers and legal experts.

Abandon all race, equality and similar legislation. If there's one law that says everyone will be treated with respect regardless of whatever minority or majority they may think they're in then there's no need for anything else.

The one thing Conservatives have got right in a big way is to support Ukraine. They have led in that respect and Boris, had he stayed, would probably have been able to gather sufficient extra support to bring more weapons and people to their defence to prevent the atrocious advances of the Russians. What is now a sort of uneasy stalemate could have been a victory and a return of most land back to Ukraine. Losing Boris lost a lot of ground, and lives, there.

I hope these thoughts are of some value and interest.

With kind regards and the best of luck,

Friday, July 5

None of the above

 


The table of results is getting very much misinterpreted by the media in general. They see just the chart above and talk of historic Labour victory when that isn't quite the full story. It's more of an accidental win.

PartySeats% vote
LAB41233.7
CON12123.7
REFORM514.3
LIB7112.2
NI Parties183.4
SNP92.5
IND / PC63.4
GREEN46.8

Look, instead, at the percentage vote for each party.

Now things look a bit different. There's simply no way that Britain has voted with any enthusiasm whatsoever for a Labour government for the next five years.

Not only have 40% of the electorate not voted so one could say that None Of The Above won. It is also clear that, amongst those who bothered to vote, the total Conservative and Reform vote was 38%, much higher than Labour's 33.7%. Even adding Conservative and Liberal exceed Labour's very modest vote.

Take into account the poor 60% turn-out and Labour's 33.7% becomes a sad 20%. So just 1 in 5 of the electorate actually wanted a Labour government. 4 out of 5 of the people you see on the street, in your office, in the shops, on the bus, in traffic most definitely did not. But the top chart says it all - a majority of 170 or thereabouts will make opposition to what they propose to do very weak and ineffective. Indeed, I doubt anyone will be trying particularly hard for a long time. What's the point?

I do wonder, however, how the country will respond to Reform's 5 seats from over 14% of the vote while the Liberals have over 70 seats from just 12% of the vote? That clearly is not right. So many voters will feel disenfranchised. Indeed, Conservatives can be quite understandably annoyed to have a mere 120 seats from 24% of the vote whereas Labour get 412 from 33%.

The fact is that Conservative supporters lost the election by voting for Reform. Some kind of deal should have been done and, preferably, Rishi Sunak should have allowed much more time to plan a joint campaign with an Autumn election.

I will end by saying that I do appreciate only too well why the Conservative vote was fractured - Reform did have a point, the last few years have not been good government in many areas. Rishi Sunak made good progress in some but there were many errors before he took over that no-one was about to forget in a hurry. They really didn't deserve to win but then we didn't deserve the result we've got. I would have settled for a Conservative - Reform - Liberal government which would, at least, have represented more than half the people who bothered to vote.