It's General Election time again here in the UK. As if life wasn't crazy enough already, we'll have a fresh bunch of idiots to decide what happens in this country in a few weeks' time and I don't hold out much hope for their collective expertise. There may be some individual bright sparks in amongst the people elected but I fear most will be rather short of the mark when it comes to being able to run this place.
Let's start by taking a look at the main parties they'll be standing for.
Conservative
This is the party that I have supported for as long as I have been able to vote but I have to say I am very disappointed with the last few years' worth of government. Boris Johnson was someone I was quite happy to see leading the way and he was able to 'get the job done' in the sense that we got out of the European Union but we haven't exactly seen much by way of the benefits since doing so and you get the impression that no-one is particularly bothered now. So we have endless paperwork to do small trading with EU countries and don't seem to be getting the best of treatment when we visit some of them, with various restrictions to entry, residence and property ownership starting to appear. I do feel very much that this all could have been considerably better handled all round - and I don't put all the blame on our negotiators or politicians either - it just seems to me that a lot of people both sides of the Channel were shocked at the referendum result and never quite got over it.
The Conservatives, however, were very much in charge here and had the goodwill of the nation generally. Then COVID-19 struck. Poor Boris suffered. Not only did he get the thing and seems to suffer pretty badly from it but his team simply were totally unprepared for anything like this worldwide pandemic. They had a range of advice from all quarters to try and understand and then interpret for us as they talked us through developments most evenings on TV. Scenarios ranged from everyone over 70s going to die to everyone under 16 who gets a jab's going to die, with various less dramatic but equally inaccurate stages in between.
Heaven and earth, and rather a lot of money, were moved and a vaccine developed for which Boris's government should justifiably be proud as they really did lead the world in that important respect. Whatever credit he and they received for that, though, seems rapidly to have disappeared in the minds of the electorate as poor decisions about lockdown, the economy, support for people generally undid otherwise good progress in setting the country on the right tracks again.
More than that, the government as a whole lost authority, almost overnight. A huge and probably co-ordinated campaign had developed which led to COVID-19 management by the government being not only heavily criticised but individual members of government facing legal action of one sort or another and, through either their own stupidity in some cases, or persistent harassment in others, more and more familiar faces of the Conservative government were lost. More than that, though, in parallel to all this at home, moves abroad were being made to enhance the 'woke' agenda. People hadn't even heard this word a few years ago. Now everyone was using it. Some guy dies when resisting arrest in the States and suddenly an organisation called Black Lives Matter is making headline news. Schools and Colleges, businesses left, right and centre, sports people, footballers and even some of our ruddy political leaders are 'taking the knee' for no reason other than that they really didn't fancy standing up to all this nonsense and instead preferred to take the coward's way out and go along with the flow, so ardently encouraged by all these new organisations. And organisations that were able now to get their hands on vast funding for their 'diversity' or 'equality' or whatever cause.
With this new money they could recruit staff and a whole tranche of 30-year-olds with hard left political views saw the opportunity to do their Socialist masters' bidding and totally mess up business, education and various other important strands of the society that Conservatives had previously preserved. I have heard many people say that England just isn't England any more. They don't recognise our country any more. Things have changed. I feel that myself and I live in a beautifully green and peaceful part of the world but I know the rules have been changing all around me.
From the woke diversity nonsense grew the hate-speech nonsense, weird training that I cannot now recall the word for which is devised to correct how we think about ourselves and our history - well, if we happen to be white, that is. Very poorly-written legislation has appeared all over the place with great restrictions on what we may say, write and almost think. If you thought the world of 1984 looked bad then there are so many similarities and at least in 1984 the controllers got their legal stuff better drafted.
I give up recounting all the things that have made me embarrassed to be living under a government that has allowed all this to happen. I genuinely do think that the various members of the Conservative cabinets over the last few years have had good intentions but they simply completely missed the ball and I can only imagine they had really little idea of what was going on behind their backs in what I now understand has been a particularly dissident civil service. Indeed, I reckon we will read in years to come just how the whole operation has been organised by socialist organisations acting within the civil service and in middle management and key positions in industry and education. It is likely that even if they had wanted to stem the tide of 'woke' or object to new legislation in Scotland or even England & Wales, they would not have been able to.
Now, I admit, there does seem to have been a very belated push-back in some places, notably supported by a well-written and researched report that blows apart the idea of boys and girls deciding that it's OK to be something different just because they feel like it. You could still be given a criminal record for being rude about a transvestite, though. Or making someone think you were being rude in Scotland. There are forces of some common sense returning here and there which I have been surprised to hear. But that's nothing to do with the Conservative government. They have failed, dismally, in running the heart and soul of Great Britain in many ways and deserve to be punished at this election as, I am sure, they will be.
Rishi Sunak seems a decent sort. He's bright and has a good economic sense and in many ways his family values reflect the slightly older-style of tradition that I like to see put first. I don't feel, though, that he has much by way of leadership quality or that he is up to the job of defeating the Blob and reversing so many recent trends I have referred to.
I cannot imagine that he will fare well in opposition either. I think he will have bigger fish to fry in his own and his wife's businesses than the small matter of opposing a Socialist government with an imposing majority. He is a winner, not a loser and will be unlikely to stick around long after July.
Perhaps a new leader and the best of the new intake can form a credible voice for those of us left in England who wish to preserve our country and who will have enough energy and staying power to make a difference and reverse the tide that will start to damage us all soon enough if we're not careful.
Labour
Or Socialists, as that is, indeed, what Labour are, look like making the UK the first nation for a long time to elect a socialist government. What a dreadful thought. But be that as it may, the vast majority of people who will vote Labour will have trouble spelling socialist, never mind understanding what it is. Labour will get a mass of votes purely because they're not the Tories.
There are not many other reasons to vote for them, to be honest, unless you genuinely are a Socialist.
Labour's history in government dates back to the 1997-2010 era. That followed, again, a disastrous display of incompetence by the Conservative government under a very much weakened John Major. There was farce after farce as ministers were found in bed with each other or some business or another. Even dear John got in on the act with one of his female ministers. They were pretty much doomed but had actually made a good job of the economy during office and left the incoming team a nice plate to start eating from.
Their big mistake, other than looking foolish, had been to make Britain increasingly subject to European Union / Commission regulations and we have never really recovered from that aspect, despite leaving.
So when a youthful-looking Tony Blair became the presidential type of opposition leader almost everyone could see a landslide victory coming. With Blair changing some of the Labour Party's rules and pledges too so that they appeared less 'red' and people told not to behave like socialists, people feel less frightened of the Labour Party and they were swept to power in a big way.
Over the years, however, Blair became something of a cartoon character of himself and that two-dimensional image became less appealing, especially when Britain found itself at war in far away places and for causes with which we had little sympathy. People found his barrister wife annoying and got the impression that she ruled not only the roost but the nation at times. Blair also appeared more like a Conservative than many Conservatives and the love of the trappings of office and money were all too apparent. Socialist leaders often go that way. Conservative leaders have tended to have got enough in the bank and a decent house already. They don't do the job for the money. Labour blokes do. Labour women are a different story. They're the ones who would have been woke if woke had existed at the time. They are the ones who can be most difficult to argue with at committees and meetings so tend to get their own way without ever having to have the top job.
This time we have a complete non-entity in the no shades at all, just grey, Sir Kier. The Sir bit is the best part for him as it sounds smart. He got it for his time as a civil servant and being the Director of Public Prosecutions from 2008 to 2013. We know very little about what sort of leader he might be as he says very little of any importance and, in any event, he will have to cope with a mass of objectionable youth, trade union officials and goodness knows what other ratbags get elected this time.
He will have to battle with the Jeremy Corbyn supporters who so nearly got to power in 2017 and will no doubt keep trying to steer the party leftwards. Despite his protestations that he will seek the centre ground in government he has already said that he remains a Socialist and that, for me, says it all. He was quite a rebellious guy in his youth and, whilst we all mature, I have a feeling that he is still pretty hard left on many matters and not someone we will find easy to accept as a leader in years to come.
He has no charisma but his blandness may be all that is needed to make people feel comfortable voting Labour.
On present polling Labour would romp into power with over 500 seats, with the Conservatives on around 100 if they're lucky.
The problem with that is two-fold. First there is effectively zero opposition. Labour cabinet can do what they like, Change legislation as they like. It's all for the taking. Second, the quality of the intake is unlikely to be great and certain to be inexperienced. After all, Labour has been out of power for 14 years and many old-timers have resigned this year, leaving very few who have any clue as to how to behave, what to do. This will mean that civil servants will, to a large extent, rule the roost. What they say will be what goes, in fact. The small matter of most civil servants appearing nowadays to be very politically motivated and influenced whereas once that was a forbidden sin is of paramount importance. Expect to see a lot of legislation and a lot of funding for quangos and similar government-supported agencies to encourage this or that policy in the educational and industrial world.
Where politicians do get to speak for themselves expect a lot of bollocks.
I am also concerned about how effective the Momentum group will be. There is very likely to develop a distinct split in government before long with a moderate group and another group demanding big change more quickly than the moderates wish. It's been a long time since we've been concerned about what organisations like the National Executive Committee or Unite or the TUC have thought or wanted but we may be hearing a lot more from these unelected people from what used to be smoke-filled rooms.
What happens about China now? How different really, is the Chinese Communist Party to Britain's Socialist Labour Party? Do they really want to upset President Xi? If, as is increasingly likely during the next parliament, the Chinese blockade Taiwan, Britain may well be asked to help break this - and that means something pretty close to war with China. I don't see Keir Starmer leading us there at all. He will leave the Taiwanese high and dry and hope the Americans do something. He is someone who will duck and run rather than grab a gun. There are plenty of pacifists and kinda-pacifists who'll prefer that approach and, on the more aggressive side, his hard left people will insist he does nothing to upset all the money that China has been sending their way.
So vote Labour and get a bunch of angry women you can't argue with and Momentum under the table as well as votes for the kids.
Chaos and even more loss of British values to the extent we won't even remember what they were. But maybe some fun in 2029 when a whole bunch of youngsters will be able to vote and, if the PR supporters get their way by some chance, a whole new way of government for the 2030s. It might even get interesting.
Liberal
Once the Liberal Party had some good leaders and they even got impressive voting percentages across the nation. 20% was a good amount but only a few seats. Labour get 30% and 200 seats. The Liberals get 20% and maybe 10. It's not fair, I know. But that's the 'first-past-post-system'. They'd love to see Proportional Representation and they'd then get a massive vote, not only because of the percentage seats being the same as percentage vote and therefore much higher than before but I think it is far more likely that people would vote Liberal if they believed there would be some chance of them having an influence on government.
As it stands, however, they have no hope of having any influence on government and, sadly for them, the last time that they did did not work out at all well for them. That was a pity because for many voters that government of 2010 was one that seemed to represent what people wanted at that time - change and to get a way from the Labour disasters but not too outright right wing. Cameron and Clegg could have been a good team. But that's another story.
Now there is no-one that anyone recognises in the Liberal party. We're not even that sure what they stand for nowadays as the 'liberal' bit seems increasingly to be getting left out of most policies and substituted by 'woke' or 'green'. Liberals had a reputation for being quite good at local government so they'd do well at Council elections but not a great deal else.
There is probably a core 6 or 7% support that will always vote Liberal, come what may and another 15% is there to be had. That will, however, go to whoever people feel will do the better job where they are on the day and the jury is very much out at the moment as to where those floating votes will go. One thing is fairly certain - they will not go to the Conservative candidate. They're more likely to go to Reform or Labour so I'm inclined to say the Liberals will finish up with 10% with the bulk of the rest going to Reform and a bit to top-up Labour's pile.
Reform
It's a new party for all intents and purposes and seems to be made up entirely of Conservatives who should know better. It's like UKIP and may get quite a substantial vote as people who would have voted Conservative see them as Conservative but not Conservative, if that makes any sense. They can go home and honestly say that they didn't vote Conservative this time and so avoid all the abuse they might have got in 'Tories Out' areas or almost any run-down housing estate these days.
Like UKIP, however, they'll not get any seats. So it's going to be a vote that has a pretty dramatic impact by seriously damaging the Conservatives across the whole country as Reform are threatening to have candidates nationwide. In these bad times for the Conservatives they may still have had a chance of clinging on in several constituencies but a few thousand votes lost to Reform will be all that Labour need to win - and in places they might never have expected should the Liberals also poll well.
Basically Reform will kill any hopes of even a Conservative minority government. If a deal isn't done, we know who to blame. It will be particularly painful should the difference between Labour winning a seat and the Conservatives holding it turn out to be that Reform vote in enough seats that could have avoided a Labour majority. If Labour do, as predicted, clear 450-500 seats then whatever Reform votes amount to will hardly matter but if they're closer to 350 then watch the sparks fly. Labour will gloat but have to realise that they didn't so much win as Conservatives lost.
Pure bad electoral management. Rishi needs to get working on that now.
SNP
I remember when the Scottish National Party first emerged in the early 1970s. It was all very sexy and rebellious stuff - the idea that Scotland could be an independent country had great appeal to many of the seemingly unnaturally nationalistic Scots. No-one ever seemed to think through the economics or actual practicalities, constitution or whatever. Just let's have independence and no more rule from the English, was all they thought about.
Nothing much happened anyway for a long time. No-one really bothered about the SNP until Alex Salmond and later Nicola Sturgeon really did transform the fortunes of the party to the extent that it had almost every seat in Scotland in 2015 and still has 40 or so now.
However . . . the past year or so have seen the dramatic failure of the SNP to do anything other than bring in some ridiculous gender and hate-thought legislation. Their leader is under police investigation, as is her husband, and Scotland is in a bit of a mess. They managed to negotiate all kinds of devolved powers and even got their own parliament, MPs and all the wonderfully well-paid civil service jobs that go with all that. And, of course, it has become abundantly clear that the vast majority of all those lovely new jobs went to SNP supporters who have effectively run the country north of the border ever since.
They say they want independence still but I am not so sure. Secretly, they've had a damn good run at our English, and a bit of Welsh and Irish, expense, and would probably not enjoy having to find the money themselves at any time in the near future.
The whole referendum idea is dead now and no-one knows the new leader and no-one really seems to like the SNP any more. They're a busted flush and, apart from the fanatics who will always hate the English anyway, expect to see the SNP vote drop dramatically and for them to lose a lot of seats, maybe nearly 30. And who will benefit from this timely collapse of everything SNP? Labour. Yes, lucky old Labour, (and it is old Labour rather than New Labour which was a short-lived Blair thing), will pick up each and every one of those lost seats. so boosting their numbers even more.
So it may well be that the SNP do even worse than the Conservatives but you'll not hear much about that as the media and civil servants will be celebrating Labour big-time and sod any so-called independent journalism or commentary.
Plaid Cymru
The good old Welsh Nationalists will probably plod on much as they've done for years in Wales. They've had either 3 or 4 MPs for as long as I can remember and no doubt will have 3 or 4 this year too. They'll never get the independence they seek, nor a parliament like the Scots. In a way, I think they could be rather more sensible than the SNP people and rather more realistic while they're at it.
There is a Labour 'government' in the devolved stuff for Wales and they're not doing well and actually have quite a bad reputation. So maybe the Plaid Cymru people will get a few extra votes and even some Liberals could benefit in a few seats where they might already have a good base. I can't see Reform doing anything except losing deposits west of the border but this time there's no big gain for Labour there either.
Northern Ireland
I often struggle to understand what is going on there. It was clear in the good old days when the Catholics voted for the ex-IRA and the Protestants didn't. Now there are all sorts of variations of the Unionist Party and I'm not sure what the difference between the Social Democratic & Labour Party and the Alliance Party is. One's probably Catholic and the other's Protestant but I have no idea which is which. Where's that crazy loud-mouthed Reverend Ian Paisley when you need him? He made it all perfectly clear and got votes for his party too. Now Sinn Fein seem to rule which is odd as I'd thought they were an Eire party but I suppose if you want unification and goodbye Charlie that's who you vote for.
It was a mess there before we left the EU. Now it's an even bigger mess and I don't think anyone actually knows how to solve it. The Conservatives don't or they'd have tried by now. Labour don't or they'd have been bellyaching about it by now too. The Liberals probably don't care and Reform have no idea about most English policies never mind anywhere else. The SNP may be the people to ask. They know about big messes and how to ruin your nation's image.
I think there'll be about 18 seats to the parties over there and one or two might support Labour if it were a close-run thing but more would support the Conservatives, not that they'll be likely to be asked this time.
Green Party
Oh dear, I nearly forgot the Greens. What a bunch. I really don't know what to make of them. The one Green MP we had was a nice lady who spoke well and always sounded so reasonable that (a) I am not surprised she got elected and (b) she could easily be confused with a Liberal who always sound very reasonable but actually say very little of any meaning.
Greens want to spend billions protecting the planet. It is very hard to argue against protecting the planet. It's like you have a hole in your roof but don't do anything to fix it. Of course we should all look after our planet. But whereas it is comparatively easy for me to fix my roof, there isn't actually anyone who can fix the planet's roof. Whatever we may do is almost instantly countered by what someone else does in some other corner of the planet. China belches out vast amounts of smoke in coal-fired steel and other power stations while we close all of ours. Then we have to buy steel from China.
Russia has vast tracts of land and no-one pays any attention to how they farm the land or, for that matter, what nuclear fuel or weapons or other paraphernalia they have there leaking stuff. They also seem to create an inordinate amount of non-recyclable waste by destroying whole cities, towns and villages where people once lived and now just exist if they're lucky.
India is not exactly renowned for the cleanliness of its streets and waterways and recycling is not at the top of its menu as far as I can see.
There are many many huge countries that pay no attention at all to what they're doing to the planet and yet we are supposed to do our tiny bit 'to set a good example'. Meanwhile, this week, there's another huge volcano erupting in Iceland. Trying controlling that output, Green people.
The ghastly young Swedish girl and all those dreadful Just Stop Oil people seem to get away with all kinds of bad protests which seem only to annoy everyone. Maybe they're Green supporters, maybe they're not but, seriously, this whole global climate thing is rather academic. Nothing the politicians are doing, have done or ever will do will make the slightest difference to the life my children's children will have in the next century.
Good economic practice, development in third world countries and continual scientific and medical and advanced research in topics we don't even know about yet will provide the 'better lives' we seek and hope for. Not the Green Party.
Independents
Rather surprisingly, there appear to be 15 Independents, or people from no specific party other than one-man bands in the present parliament. I have to stay that they've been conspicuous by their absence and suspect that whoever does get in again will remain so. Maybe they're people who resigned from a party during the parliament term or had the whip removed from them, in which case it's likely that they are Reform or Conservative types. You don't get many Labour people standing alone. They might make a difference in a tight finish, I suppose, but that's assuming there are 15 after July 4th. My guess is that there won't be. Maybe one or two oddballs who people know well in a particular constituency. That's all. We can ignore them. As the government will, which make on wonder why on Earth anyone votes for them in the first place!
In my perfect world at Election time, everyone would be an independent. You'd have to vote on the individual merits of the candidate. They may form groups after being elected but there'd be no parties beforehand. The best guys would win all over the nation and it would then be for them to work together on what makes sense. On some policies there would be a leftish majority, maybe, but on others a rightish one. Who knows? But, generally, I think you'd have a better group in charge, people who won because they were the best, not because of the colour of the badge they wore or the money spent by someone else.
That's not going to be the case, though, so never mind that now.
I could imagine that a strong Independent candidate could do well in 2024 with so many people being disillusioned with the Conservatives, really not wanting a Socialist government or trusting Labour and not seeing any point in the Liberals or anyone else. The key word is 'strong', though. So don't expect any this year.
So, taking all this into account, what will the result be? All the polls point to a massive Labour victory. My prediction is:
Party | Seats | % of vote |
LAB | 434 | 41 |
CON | 140 | 27 |
LIB | 40 | 10 |
NI Parties | 18 | 3 |
SNP | 13 | 2 |
REFORM | 0 | 13 |
IND / PC | 5 | 1 |
GREEN | 0 | 3 |
That's a depressing result as it would imply a lot of inexperienced idiots running Britain for at least five years. Unlike the last time Labour first got in, however, this time there isn't a useful surplus in the accounts and things are tight, just starting to recover from all the problems of COVID-19 but with many serious problems to address, not least how to help Ukraine survive as a nation. Will Labour care enough or will these new people even have the vaguest clue as to how to behave and negotiate on a world stage? I fear they will largely be of poor quality, reliant heavily on the civil service briefs which will be nothing like what you, or I, voted for.
I predict a period of nothing very much for Britain and sadly, a lot of bad things in the world which we will allow to happen as our government stares at its boots and wishes it had never won this damned election after all.
Maybe Rishi knew what he was doing perfectly well.
