It's now mid-March and the world has largely moved on from Epstein, everyone generally coming to the conclusion that the American had some pretty effective ways to attract the rich and famous and entertained them well. They all look pretty foolish but that really is probably going to be all that we remember in years to come. I am pretty sure Trump was very much involved and did all sorts of embarrassing things but seems smart enough not to have written emails about it or get himself snapped in action. I do wonder, though, whether Putin has some good hard evidence of Trump in action so maybe there is a little more of the story to run.
More important at this time, however, are the battles that are developing across the Middle East and continuing in Ukraine. I am not sure I see anything good coming out of either wars. Much as I despise the attitude of governments in Iran and that of Hamas and Hezbollah and IS, which appears to be reconstituted to represent a significant threat once more, the huge destruction wrought on Iran by US and the IDF has never struck me as being particularly likely to achieve any change. Yes, a number of leading people have been killed and huge damage done to military installations but the old government remains in charge and those now running things will be even more determined to do bad things to America and its allies.
A significant proportion of the population may well pray for a change, wish the downfall of their dreadful rulers and hope for a better life when they can act and speak freely but bombing the hell out of Tehran, some towns and military installations is not going to help them. Indeed, anyone showing even the smallest signs of support for some alternative government is more likely than ever to be hauled away and shot or lost forever in a cell somewhere. That proportion is still just a proportion and there seems to be a good number of the population who either support the ayatollahs or just go along with what they say for an easy life. Basically whilst the police and army have guns and a presence on the streets then they'll continue to ensure some religious zealot ayatollah remains in charge.
Iran is going to lose a lot of buildings, weapons, planes and ships but it can continue to fire missiles and drones from time to time and cause a lot of trouble for neighbours who might have to to decide that enough is enough and leave Israel and the USA to it. Iran as a nation run by demented ayatollahs who hate Christians and almost anything Britain or the USA do or stand for is unlikely to change anytime soon. I rather suspect that those who survive will be all the more determined to teach us a lesson now. And that is where trouble really starts. For lurking in towns and cities all over Europe and here in Britain are immigrants who, if not themselves from Iran, are sympathetic to the cause of Iran, whatever that is. Destruction of the West, I suppose. Many are probably not bright enough to understand what it is they're for, never mind against, but the clever brain-washing techniques of whoever manages these people, controls their lives and beliefs has been sufficient. They can all be controlled and if someone somewhere calls for them to do something then they'll jump to action and do as they're told, no doubt including wearing some ghastly suicide vest or driving a van at a queue of white kids at a bus stop in Birmingham or similar despicable acts. These terrorists will be the new weapons of war and no amount of bombs on Tehran will make any difference. And they live just a few miles from you, wherever you are.
Now that's scary.
There's a lot of talk about oil prices and, of course, I'll be paying a lot more for petrol next week. There's this narrow stretch of water along which it seems a massive amount of goods and, of course oil and gas, travel and Iran appears able to control who gets to pass at the moment. Because it seems that a ship can be stopped by quite a modest missile of some sort hitting it in the right place and these can be fired from all sorts of places along the strait, keeping ships moving looks extremely difficult and I have to wonder how long it will be before we hear of one of the West's ships being hit as it tries to defend others. That would be a huge shot in the arm for whoever's still running things in Iran and could make America look pretty weak, especially if oil prices are still high and they're unable to control much on Kharge Island.
I do quite like the idea of that - controlling the massive supply of oil by effectively running the whole shooting match at the island. But there are many hostile people around who could well decide to blow up the whole thing and cause chaos in the global economy rather than let the USA run it. So I am not convinced they'll get very far on that track either. All in all, I am not sure I see a way for Trump to get out of any of this and still look good. He will not like that at all.
All that he can say is that it will take a while for Iran to rebuild their nuclear facilities and army. Big deal.
Then there's the other war. Russia do seem to be pretty much stuck where they are. Ukraine do not have the resources to push them back as that requires troops they can't send. But they can defend territory quite effectively now with drones and remote facilities in what has been a quite remarkable series of developments in a short space of time, under pressure too. Ukraine towns are still being hit every night and most days by some missiles and drones and civilians are getting killed or injured just going about their normal lives at a shop or travelling in a bus. Russian sites are also being hit by Ukraine's drones and several important technology facilities appear to have been damaged as have some military and oil depots.
It strikes me as a bit strange that Russia has not done anything more dramatic or made what anyone would describe as a serious effort to take more territory or cause more huge devastation. One has to wonder whether they really do have the resources? I am, naturally, relieved that they haven't made any major move for a long time and that Ukraine has largely managed to keep going through the winter and preserved such troops as it has. Could Russia be running out of men? They are losing massive numbers every day, more than they are recruiting, so they will soon need to consider conscription - and that's when the government won't be that popular, however the demand to enrol is presented. I guess there'll not be much demonstration, and cutting off people's access to websites and communication via social media that's not monitored by them, will suffocate any sound of dissent anyway.
This does strike me as a good time for nations to help Ukraine make their move - with our troops and weapons from as many nations as can be persuaded to support as possible then it could become blatantly obvious to Putin that not only has he been prevented from further invasion by Ukraine alone and that now there is a real chance that his troops will be forced back. This must be the time when we make a move. I expect nothing from America now and suspect they'll be very occupied in the Middle East. UK needn't be, we could concentrate on Ukraine and actually help, as could most other European nations, showing Putin that he's not going to get anywhere and calling his bluff regarding nuclear weapon threats.
Other nations who might have supported Russia are likely to be too busy elsewhere at this time and, in any event, Russia has not exactly helped them much in their hour of need. Only North Korea looks a bit scary and might offer some support, not that their last efforts were notably successful.
This could be the month that Iran and Islamic State win and America is beaten or, at the very least, required to take an alternative route that they can describe as 'success' but we'll all know is "failure" other than causing a lot of destruction. It could be the month when Putin sees Islamic State as more of a threat to his future aspirations than Ukraine and someone manages to persuade him to switch his attention to that. I fear that his desperate belief in recreating the Soviet Union and destroying Ukraine as an independent state will remain but there's a chance for him to get out while he can and no doubt America could assist with some cheap oil or some contracts for this and that.
Unfortunately, we'll all look back in April and wonder just what the hell we were all thinking in March. And the 20,000 children taken to various parts of Russia from Ukraine are no nearer any chance of seeing their families again. Indeed, as time passes, not only will most of the children start to believe whatever their Russian masters tell them and forget about mothers (who the Russians tell them were unable to afford to look after them or other awful tales) but also the adults left in the towns and villages that have been under Russian control for 4 years will find it difficult if Ukraine does manage to regain control. There will be many who went along with the invaders who will not be popular with their rescuers. The longer time passes, the more people who actually wish to remain Ukrainian will decide to leave these areas and that, in turn, will leave those who actually support Russia as the majority and then what can you do? In so many ways, the longer Putin manages to prolong this war, the more likely he is to be sure of gaining at least those parts his forces now administer.
I guess there is not much anyone will be able to do about that, even if a peace deal were struck today. I do worry about the children, though. For so many, their young minds are so readily influenced and the people teaching them so controlled. I expect even the textbooks refer to Ukraine as part of Russia now and Britain as some terrible place where it is always foggy and men wear bowler hats and everyone is very miserable. Some English men are also very stupid and write long articles saying how bad President Putin is.
God help them, and us. But preferably not the Islam one.
