Heavens alive. Three years and we're still having everything thrown at us by russia for no good reason that I can understand other than that Putin wants to turn the clock back to 1990 or whenever it was that the United Soviet Socialist Republics existed.
So many people have died or had their whole world turned upside down, or simply destroyed, either partially or, in many places, completely. Children and even whole families have disappeared into russia, never to be seen again. Terrible atrocities have taken place which we only know a little about but, be sure, we will read about many, many more in time to come.
So where are we now?
Events have taken a curious turn and I am not too sure what to make of them.
We have the most extraordinary (and appalling) votes in a United Nations session. The US opposed a European-drafted resolution condemning Moscow's actions and supporting Ukraine's territorial integrity - voting the same way as Russia and countries including North Korea and Belarus at the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York. Then the US drafted and voted for a resolution at the UN Security Council which called for an end to the conflict, but contained no criticism of Russia.
However powerful Trump may believe the US to be on the world stage, to me they are beginning to look extremely bad, standing together with such ridiculously badly-run nations as North Korea, Belarus and goodness knows who else on the far edges of what we recognise as society. How must Americans be feeling to see their country on that side of history? I had already lost all respect for Trump last week but this merely confirms everything. He must have a very muddled mind to believe that he will in any way be praised for any of these actions. Or that they will achieve anything but distrust and a move by those genuine allies that we have to view a future world in which we can just ignore America.
My guess is that Trump sees all this as a sort of business transaction. He wants to have trade with russia because it is a huge country with massive resources of all sorts which he will be hoping to access cheaply by this new association with Putin. By not criticising Putin's actions and not actively supporting opposing forces or voices he is hoping for some deals. That Zelenskyy has rejected the first deal is encouraging, although it did cause trouble for him. He's stayed strong, though, and I am so relieved that many other nations have stood by him, both physically with presence in Kyiv but also in words and actions this week.
It can never be easy to disagree with a character like Trump, especially when he is President of the United States of America but so far several leaders have done so and pointed out his error in insulting Zelenskyy and encouraging russia to expect a deal that would lose Ukraine territory with little in return.
I wrote all the above, intending to publish on the third anniversary of russia's invasion but every day since brought a fresh development.
First we had the Starmer meeting with Trump which looked good but actually achieved of value little that I could distinguish other than that Britain wasn't being completely side-lined and some of the previous bad-mouthing of Zelenskyy was rolled backed a bit. You have to grimace at the reposnse Trump gave to a question from a reporter about referring to Zelenskyy as a dictator. "Did I say that? I'm sure I didn't!"
Next we had the meeting with Zelenskyy in the White House. I need not write about it as you'll know what happened and I imagine that a huge number of people in America, never mind the rest of the world, were appalled at some of the comments made by Trump and his Vice President. They both lost a great deal of respect, as if they still had much to start with, and I started to realise that this war would have to be tackled without much further help from across the water.
Today we have seen some good developments at long last. We can only hope that they do actually flourish. The events in the White House appear to have shocked many politicians and they've been encouraged to talk today about what they can do.
I have long maintained that it would be some sort of NATO-lite grouping which would be the best way to move forward. Putting troops from across Europe into Ukraine and supporting, with russian money we're holding through sanctions, development of arms and military effectiveness will make it abundantly obvious to Putin that Ukraine is not going to be russian and he will not succeed in getting much further and, indeed, could well find himself forced back. Whether that is to the original borders I can't say. That's unlikely but it may be enough for Zelenskyy to strike a deal.
Russia is likely to be pretty mad should there be European troops on the ground in Ukraine and I can see trouble arising should some be attacked. As these troops may well be going in under their own steam rather than as specific nations or NATO then Article V may not be implemented. It could be messy but World War III doesn't start at that point.
Whether all this will happen remains to be seen. Certainly the language of support from several countries today is very encouraging and more than makes up for the disappointment and frustration of the idiot Trump and Vance bullying attitude. Whatever the case, surely America will eventually have to side with Europe or whoever goes in to help Ukraine. To stand by and watch would consign Trump to history as a feeble man who talked tough but did nothing.
So what I would like to see happen and which may just be feasible is this:
1. Zelenskyy to sign some sort of deal with America regarding some mineral rights, patching up whatever nonsense went before with some ceremonial handshake to close the book on what went before and retain America's interest in getting some income from Ukraine land and giving Zelensky some way to offer some thanks and repayment for services rendered by the US. I say this because I doubt that European nations can go in and make any peace agreement with russia on their own.
2. The group of 'those willing' as Starmer calls the nations to be involved in helping will specify the extent of their involvement, whether military, advisory or monetary support to show russia that this is a serious development. Before, most countries' contributions tended to be ignored but I think en masse this group may have some greater effect and influence, especially as they are willing to do something to make Ukraine considerably stronger even if they're not about to start fighting on the front line themselves.
3. Ukraine continues to fight and pushes russian troops back or, at the very least, holds positions to the point where russia has to appreciate that it cannot get further. With suitable additional restraints on their economy and, perhaps, some indication from America that they're not as supportive as Putin had assumed, or that Trump is not as malleable as he'd hoped, Putin may have to consider withdrawal at which point he is likely to choose one of two options in a few months' time. One is to drop a nuclear weapon on part of Ukraine. The other is to go to the table and try and get what he can as a starting point.
4. If he drops the bomb then all deals are off and I cannot predict what happens next. My guess is that he realises his country would be demolished in any escalation and doesn't take that step and we'll hope and assume the other option is chosen. Once he's at that table and fighting is stopped then there's an opportunity to pile in as many people as we can all spare and ensure that there is no hope for him in restarting any time soon. He, therefore, gets some face-saving arrangement with some areas of Ukraine remaining under partial control while we work out what people there actually want in a fair way. Much as I would love to see Putin simply defeated and sent back with his tail between his legs and his country fined massive amounts of money for the rebuilding work etc., I don't see that happening at this point.
5. We then have a period when there is an uneasy sort of peace. It'll take some time to negotiate any new border and, indeed, Zelenskyy may refuse to accept any border different from what it was in 2022, maybe even demanding now that the Crimea region is returned too. Provided there is enough support to make it clear that no attempt to take further land in Ukraine will be successful then that peace should last and perhaps Putin will get old and decrepit and be replaced. The replacement, of course, may be no easier to deal with but for that we can only wait and see what happens.
6. Agreements need to be exchanged and set in stone. We let Ukraine down badly on several occasions in the past. We cannot allow that to happen again and we have a duty to establish the new borders, the new responsibilities and help Ukrainians return to a new life in their own country once more. I expect there will be some loss of territory and Trump will have deals with russia for trade and various minerals as well as his interest in Ukraine. Provided that we make very sure Ukraine has a strong military force of their own, as they're not being let in to NATO any time soon, then russia is unlikely to try an invasion again for a long time. We may need to watch some other borders, though, as they will also be able to grow their military capabilities. The cold war will continue as long as Putin, or someone of similar views of Ukraine as a nation, remain in control.
So, before yet another twist happens in this rapidly-changing story, let me share these thoughts and hopes.
