Thursday, June 27

The stupidity of Reform

With less than a week to go now, more and more articles expressing a fear of the expected super Socialist majority have been appearing. All repeat what I have been saying since the start of the campaign; Reform will totally wreck the Conservative Party's representation and, coupled with local effort in some constituencies by the Liberals, will allow Labour to take victory in constituencies they might only have dreamed of a few months ago.

I predict that they will achieve this with just a small percentage of the overall vote too.

PartySeats% vote
LAB38031
CON10028
LIB13016
NI Parties183
SNP152
REFORM216
IND / PC51
GREEN03

I really do not believe that the public at large will vote for Labour in the numbers that everyone seems to predict, however. They are not performing well in debates nor seem to have policies anyone particularly wants. There is also genuine resistance to the concept of them having a huge amount of power for the foreseeable future with no restraint in sight.

So I am pulling their vote right down towards the lower 30% mark which makes the Conservative vote quite an intriguing calculation. If we say that Reform and the Liberals fare evenly then the best either can hope for is around 15%. So, with 30% Labour, 30% Reform+Liberals and about 10% pretty much static for the others there remains, yes, 30% for the Conservatives.

I've adjusted this slightly in the table above which is my current prediction but the sad, crazy thing is how those votes translate to seats. Labour still finish with a massive majority. Reform and the Liberals have more support across the country but Reform will be lucky to get a couple of seats now. The Liberals do manage to break through, mainly because no-one feels like voting for anyone else in far more places than normal. This helps the Liberals a lot.

Reform may get votes in some numbers but whereas I might have thought they could break through in some places and increase further, Nigel Farage's recent remarks about Putin have damaged their chances quite significantly. I had been considering voting for them but not now and, whilst many of their policies I do like the sound of, I will be advising others not to vote for them other than in seats where Conservatives would not have a chance anyway and they could pick up some useful Labour votes.

For my own part, I see that my constituency is one of the very few that stand a reasonable chance of remaining Conservative so I shall vote to support that remaining the case. A vote for Reform would merely help hand the seat to either the liberals or Labour with zero chance of Reform being popular enough here to take it themselves. We are going to find that, across the country, Reform will be coming a good third, sometimes even second in many seats but, as I said, they will be very fortunate to win any and those that they do win will be down to tactical voting by the Liberals and Labour where the Labour voters don't see a chance for their candidate and want to keep the Conservative out.

Just look at the schism between percentage support nationally and representation in parliament. This is very bad news indeed.

Once in power with a good majority, Labour will quickly introduce legislation to add more youngsters to the voting roll on the basis that they're regarded as natural Labour voters (if they can be bothered to vote, that is!) I have some doubts as to whether that will remain the case once Labour becomes the ugly Big Brother and life doesn't seem as free and pleasant in years to come. I remember the late 60s when I was young and too young to vote but had a dim view of government and very quickly grew to be a strong supporter of the party which promised me more 'freedom'. Socialists and the Trade Unions were a joke in those days for everyone I knew and the events of the later 1970s demonstrated to all of us just how much they were not how we wanted to see Britain develop. I suspect that the same thing may happen but, next time, I am not sure who will reap the benefits of Labour's demise. It may need to be a brand new party.

In the meantime, however, I fear the changes to the Lords' composition, courts and rules and regulations left right and centre as well as deals to restore links with Europe and the inevitable huge cost of settling pay deals with doctors, train drivers and virtually every other large institution workforce who sees that this is the time to ask for more. The new intake of inexperienced and either ill-educated or highly indoctrinated people getting elected by voters who have no clue who they're actually putting into power, other than the colour of the rosette, will have a very, very different view of what Britain should be like to mine. Human rights, minority issues, diversity, green matters, saving the planet will all be at the top of the menu for this band with little care for anyone starting a business, buying a house or seeking a good education or health care privately. 

If the numbers work out as I suggest then there should be a reasonable opposition which can make enough noise to alert the public to what they've unwittingly unleashed upon us all. However, if there really is no last minute chance given to the Conservatives, the Liberals just fail in most of their attempts to oust a Labour candidate but succeed with a Conservative and Reform steal more Conservative votes and hand more seats to Labour then we'll be looking at an extra few % for Labour but translating to 450 seats with Conservative and Liberal battling for second place on around 80 each.

The thing is, Reform will still have only a handful at best and, whilst this not fair, given their percentage vote, what will be really objectionable is the fact that the vote for Reform has handed massive victory to a group of people no-one really wants to see running Britain re-forming, indeed, our country.

Thursday, June 20

Before it's too late,

As I watch in increasing dismay the similarly increasing number of idiot socialist Labour people getting seats in the next British Parliament, I have to wonder just how can it all have come to this? I know Rishi Sunak appears weak and a bit out of touch. He's no Boris Johnson and lacks David Cameron's standing and just being Indian will make some people unwisely cease to support him but surely the same people cannot have much by way of admiration for Keir Starmer? Tony Blair and Jerome Corbyn had a sort of charisma. I can see why Blair was popular in 1997 when John Major looked so tired and grey and he was most definitely assisted by Spitting Image's depiction of dinner at the Majors and the peas. I can see why Corbyn was popular - we forget at our peril how close the actual vote was in 2017; May 42% Corbyn 40%!! - as he was the epitome of conviction and really did believe what he said. I simply cannot see why Starmer is popular. 

In fact, I am not sure Starmer is that popular. There's simply nowhere else for the 'anything but Conservatives' vote to go for most people. Ed Davey is a non-starter for the Liberals and they're static on around 10%. Reform do get the pollsters' votes but they don't translate to seats. They might get 20%, maybe a bit more but they'll be lucky to get even one seat and, Nigel Farage is the only figure anyone sees in Reform and no-one thinks he'll be running the country anyway. So if you ask the question and are discouraged from what could be a genuine Don't Know (preceded by a long sigh) then it's Labour. Not Keir Starmer. Just Labour. After all, Labour isn't Corbyn, people think, and they were in power a while back so maybe it's time to give them another chance, or other reasons along those lines . . .

So I can kinda convince myself of how it could be that there is this ridiculous majority in July for a bunch of mostly inexperienced, objectionable, trade unionist, ill-educated or woke people who will decide who does what where and when for some considerable period. I used or in the last sentence because the exception to the inexperienced or ill-educated will be the experienced and very highly academically qualified woke contingent. They're terrifying. The others are mostly fools who will be quite out of their depth and get politically muddled up and very grammatically messed-up like Angela Rayner or Diane Abbott on a normal day. The woke ones are the people who have got us here in the first place, with a bit of help from Momentum, those who want Jeremy Corbyn back and friends of Russia.

I fear for the country as I know it. However, our traditional Conservative, middle-of-the-road government has failed miserably in so many respects to preserve important values and made so many silly mistakes along the way that it is highly unlikely to recover in time. The Conservative government have provided a good economy, a sensible foreign and defence policy and a preference for small government which most of the nation support but the very successful propaganda and activities of the opposition over the last 4 or 5 years has weakened them considerably.

What seems to have happened is that, whilst useless as an opposition in Parliament, the socialist Labour Party has managed to get its supporters installed in many many key positions in the ministries and departments that actually make things happen (or prevent things happening) as well as chairing quangos, government-funded research or implementation bodies, enquiries etc. This has resulted in laws being made largely on the hoof in many areas with no chance for Parliament to intervene. A classic example that has happened here is the incredible development of Equality, Diversity and Identity matters, initially within universities, then large organisations and now many normal day-to-day institutions. It is now the case in Scotland that one cannot make a joke about a particular gender or sexual preference, racial origin or religion. Well, let me rephrase that; it appears that there have been no prosecutions whatsoever for criticism of heterosexual males or females, white people other than those in the past who may have some feint connection with slave trade or colonisation, or Christians. We can all be criticised, moaned about, regarded as responsible for all that is wrong in the world and now to be held to account for basically everything unpleasant. But all the minority groups and those with lots of initials are 'protected' now and we have to be so careful of what we say.

In the rest of the nation we may not be prosecuted (Scotland went Socialist years ago with the SNP government - the same government that proposed that child could choose whether they were a boy or girl and instruct a doctor to give them the appropriate medication, without their parents' consent) but we still run the risk of falling foul of so many other 'regulations' and 'company' or 'corporate' policies that have arisen, untamed by any procedure whatsoever other than a committee which comprises socialist-leaning people.

I have witnessed all this 'woke' stuff happening and wondered how on earth it could have happened under a government that I have been supporting actively because I honestly believed that they were against all that kind of stuff. Indeed they are but as soon as Boris Johnson started to try and change some of the committees he was hounded out of office by a whole consortium of people chosen to dig up whatever evidence of misbehaviour they could find. Eating cake at parties held during a lock-down which should never have happened in the first place was enough to dispose of him and the Conservative Party fell apart. Rishi Sunak hasn't a chance. Decent bloke but he honestly does not stand a chance now.

Despite our continued backing for Ukraine, and the likely new Prime Minister's supposed support, the Labour Party has always had close ties behind the scenes with Russia and they will be under immense pressure to delay any further help and will take the route of suggesting a ceasefire and stop with existing 'new' boundaries as the settlement. What a disaster that will be. But will we see any demonstrations? No. They already support the Hamas side in the conflict in the Middle East and our Socialist Labour Mayor of London (for several years now) has allowed the Palestinian flag to be flown all over the place and for demonstrations to go ahead whilst cracking down on any support for Israel.

Finally, the Labour government will want to be seen to be green and expect there to be a raft of silly policies about new cars, road use, taxes on fuel and heaven knows what else the poor motorist will face while the chap in lycra on his bike or the old lady on the bus (and there is usually only one or two people on any bus that I see) will be given lots of tax breaks and assistance. Maybe that's nice for the old lady but I really have no time for the chaps in lycra. If only they would pull in to let cars go by on narrow country roads . . . no, they stay 2m away from the kerb and prevent anyone passing legally - it is now a new 'regulation' (remember what I said about regulations?) that we motorists have to allow 1½ metres minimum when passing. That's simply suicidal on a twisty country lane here in Northamptonshire. It's probably no big deal for people in flat big cities with massive straight and wide roads but here it does not make any sense. If the lycra guy just pulled in a bit the row of 86½ cars behind him at 18 mph could get by and have a pleasant journey.

Once established with their big big majority, we will not see much of what happens next. It will all be behind the scenes, in committee rooms, in new quangos set up to do this or that, as the people in the ministries that are supposed to do a government's bidding actually really can get on and just do what they think is right or, unfortunately, in most instances, left.

All we will see will be some big announcements of general policy directions. Propaganda, mainly, with plenty of posters and adverts and control over social media. Legislation similar to that already in place in Scotland will cover the UK and be further developed with 'protected minorities' left right and centre . . . no, just left . . . featuring increasingly and restricting more and more what we feel comfortable saying, writing, mumbling quietly to ourselves or even thinking.

Statues that the new committees disapprove of will disappear, as will art and books they dislike or think someone they seek to 'protect' will be offended by. If the Hate Crime Reporting Centres that were set up in Scotland are used to gather information more widely across the whole of the UK then I do begin to worry about informers more generally. When it is easy to report someone for writing articles or speaking publicly in opposition to developments then that's exactly what will happen. They'll be reported, probably knowing nothing about it. Until the committees find ways to ensure that they do know about it because they'll be made to suffer. Quite how remains to be seen but I cannot imagine the new regimes allowing dissent to flourish and, whilst they would not wish to echo Chinese restrictions, South American disappearances or old Soviet-style STASI operations, you know and I know that there'll be some way found. Maybe we'll find is less easy to get credit increases on our cards, our internet connection often gets interrupted for no obvious reason, our children come home spouting a load of crap in praise of something they probably haven't a clue about, our cars have more trouble than we expected getting a new MOT, the new certificate we need to work in this or that field or to rent this or that property is harder to acquire . . . you get the idea.

Almost by definition, if you are earning more than the average pay in Britain and/or have assets more than the value of an average property in Britain then you'll be paying a lot more next year to the government. And by a lot more I suspect that it will be sufficient to bring many people much closer to that average, especially with higher Council Tax or equivalent charges that are bound to come for homeowners and private renters.

Run a small business at your peril as these will be difficult to control and the new government will want to control. There will be a lot more forms to fill in. Ultimately, if they get their IT act together, then AI will increasingly determine what we can or can't have by way of allowances, permissions, and the like, with only more and more forms to deal with to complain or seek reviews.

Truly terrible times are ahead. I am very likely to get into trouble as I shall do my very best to help those who will try to resist the changes and get rid of the socialist government as soon as possible. Even then, however, much damage will have been done with the courts, schools, universities, many institutions already being managed by the left and the woke and the running of the country having been handed over to committees and self-interest groups to the extent that, even if opposition is effective and MPs get kicked out, the new ones will be pretty powerless.

It will actually take some hard-headed and truly committed and business-like MPs from parties such as Reform to succeed where the soft Liberals and Conservatives have failed. A combination of new Conservatives and the likes of Reform may do the trick but they need to start now. Just one or two of the right sort of really committed and open-eyed politicians getting elected now might help us get a small view through the chink of some committee room doors and assist our resistance plans.

Or I might just move to Ukraine, which really may be the better bet if we can get the better of the Russians in the next few months. Before it's too late there too.

Tuesday, June 4

General Election 2024: Voting for the best opposition

 Nigel Farage taking over the leadership of the Reform Party will make some differences I had not expected so the table needs a bit of revision.

Party

Seats

% of vote

LAB

455

41

CON

100

24

LIB

55

11

NI Parties

18

3

SNP

13

2

REFORM

4

15

IND / PC

5

1

GREEN

0

3


I see quite a dramatic effect on Conservative seats now with more people voting for Reform and that also allowing the Liberals in to one or other extra seats. I still don't see much of an overall total vote for either Reform or Liberal but I can now see Reform's enhanced promotional reach pushing a few of their candidates over the finishing line whereas before I had expected none.

So we have an even larger majority for Labour now predicted as the joint Liberal and Reform group really hits the Conservative's chances in seats all over the place. They may even struggle to get 100. There is just a chance that Reform really do look more appealing than the Conservatives to all the new people voting Conservative last time, as well as a number of disillusioned supporters who see Nigel Farage as a better opposition than Rishi Sunak. In that instance, where people, reluctantly accepting that Labour will win, are going to be voting for the best opposition, there is that possibility of Reform taking quite a few seats and crossing that barrier which has always prevented the Liberals from making any serious headway.

It is not likely but it is possible and events over the campaign will be what makes voters switch if they're going to. In many ways they will feel they have nothing to lose. The Conservatives appear almost certain not to have a chance of any majority and look likely to lose a lot of good voices for opposition. They have also not exactly endeared themselves to even their core supporters with the extraordinary rise in all things woke, equality, diversity and inclusivity training et al in recent years, making Britain unrecognisable in many ways. So this is an opportunity for those people to vote for someone who will strongly oppose any more advances along those lines and who will be vocal about immigration controls.

These Reform people, assuming they do win some seats, will still be too small in number to make much difference but they're likely to make more noise than the group of chaste and embarrassed  Conservatives who do manage to survive. They'll be spending a lot of their time answering reporters' questions about why their party did so poorly, looking for a new leader and not making any positive impression at all for some considerable time. None of the predicted new leaders inspire much enthusiasm either, with talk that even Liz Truss could return, God help them. That's because many of the better candidates will lose their seats and simply not be available any more. Liz Truss is one of the few with a very large majority and maybe sufficient energy to encourage the local constituents to help her retain her seat.

A handful of Reform people and a much reduced Conservative group will still not make much of an opposition, I'm afraid. So people who are making these calculations will need to influence a lot of their friends and somehow make a significant boost to Reform's predicted vote so that people can see a chance that they may, after all, make a decent number of seats - say 30+ - and perhaps that will encourage others who are wobbling to make the move to back Reform. 

If the Reform vote appears stuck at low numbers, around the expected 10-14% then they'll be lucky to get more than 1 or 2 seats as not many people will see the point of voting for them. If it does happen to get a lift, however, and there is a prospect of some really useful, albeit mostly still just vocal, opposition to the Labour's tirade of awful government for a decade, then I hope a lot of voters do go for it.

I shall be watching developments closely as that successful opposition is the key from July onwards for Britain.